The shape of the recession - nobody's thought this through
54What shape a recession?
The Times has an interesting article on the shape the recession could take. It sounds odd to think of recessions having a 'shape', but what they are essentially trying to do is to make the eventual climb out of what is undoubtibly the worst economic crisis of recent times a palatable affair. The world of finance is pretty unintelligible at the best of times and so trying to explain that it's not the end of the world and 'things will get better' is a tough ask.
And so to graphs. Images are always the best way to go if you have trouble explaining with words and the recession is no different, so here's how some people are thinking it will all pan out.
The 'V' shape
This is what most people expect, or more realistically, hope will happen. This is where the recession hits the bottom with a bang and then heads up with as much pace as it went down. It's happened in the past quite a lot and it seems to (currently) be the way things are going.
Certainly, if you bought a house at the top of the market back in 2007 and are now trying to sell, you'll have noticed that it's pretty much impossible. The way your house price has dropped in the last two years will certainly make you feel like someone has put all your money in a box and dropped it off a cliff.
However, this is one area where people are hoping that the recession doesn't explode into too swift an economic recovery. House prices were unsustainable - pretty much everyone agrees and so there needs to be a gentle climb out of the mire we're in if it's to be palatable for new buyers.
There's also a big downside to manufacturing with this model. Many companies laid off a lot of people lately and if there's a sudden increase in demand, it could all mean a lot of trouble for some areas of the economy. Increase in demand without the necessary supply could mean a hike in prices which itself is bad news.
The dreaded 'W'
Things appear to be on the up at the moment, but this could be a false dawn. This is the one that everyone fears, they are worried that we are heading for another big fall, but the people that believe this are only looking at the stock market.
Stock markets tend to improve before the general economy as people see the benefit in investing in stock that is likely to rise. At the moment there can be no doubt that the stock market is indeed going to rise at some point, the key is to get steady rises but with the big investors staying out for such a long time, all gains have been pretty erratic.
We've already seen this pattern on the stock market earlier in the year where the markets rose without much support - simply on speculation. There is some merit to the comment that the more crashes we have, the more 'part timers' we lose from the market making it more sustainable in the long run.
If the general economy goes through a 'W' then things could get a lot worse and it would prolong the pain for many people, however indicators at the moment seem to suggest that this isn't the way things are going.
In Summary
It doesn't matter to most what shape the recession and subsequent recovery takes, it's all down to bottom line and whether we will emerge from it stronger. It's a tough world at the moment and many people are struggling to survive, however take comfort in the fact that we will emerge from it.
History tells us that boom and bust will always happen and the more we try to mitigate the busts, we just sometimes have to live with our choices, good or bad.
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