The Law of Unintended Consequences in History

An important principle in science is the law of unintended consequences. The physical and social sciences share a lot, including the law of unintended consequences. History is full of examples of decisions that had long range impacts that were not intended, though may have been predictable.

The law of unintended consequences simply states that the desired result on an experiment may lead to future events that were neither intended nor foreseeable. For instance, the long term effects of thalidomide were not intended and led to horrible results for the families involved. The law is even more pronounced in the social sciences because they are dealing with even less predictable forces, people. There are many examples in history of events that created something no one expected.

During the First World War the British were faced with a difficult situation. The alliance of the Ottoman Empire with the Germans and the Austrians threatened British control of the Middle East. In an attempt to weaken the Ottoman's the British organized an Arab revolt and promised an independent Arab empire following the war. Shortly there after the British issued the Balfour Declaration promising a Jewish homeland in Palestine.

Both decisions were predicated on the immediate needs of a country at war. The British were doing their best to win a war and save their empire. Little did they know that the result of those two events would lead to decades of conflict and death.

Another example could be seen in the actions of Mikhail Gorbachev in the late 1980s. Gorbachev inherited a Soviet Union that was falling apart economically and he wanted to save it. In response to the immediate need he faced Gorbachev tried to save the existing political and economic structure by opening them up trough his glasnost and perestroika policies. These allowed more freedom in business and civil liberties.

The steps taken to save a country ended up hastening its demise. Instead of being happy with the limited freedoms that had been given, the Soviet people demanded more. Voicing criticism became open dissent and then revolution. The leader who tried to save a dying country quickly lost control and watched as a new country was created.

Another example is the Young Plan of 1929. The Young Plan replaced the Dawes Plan that had set the payments and time table for German reparations from WWI. Through the 1920s the Dawes Plan had worked well and helped Germany stabilize its economy which all but killed the Nazi party. With the economic crisis that started with the stock market crash, American investors were desperate for repayment and the Dawes Plan was changed to much more difficult requirements for German repayment. The new plan devastated the German economy and breathed new life into the struggling Nazi Party. The result, of course, cost the United States and the world a lot more than just some reparations payments.

It is impossible to predict the future. Some decisions have rather obvious results, but others are much more difficult to predict. The law of unintended consequences should teach all that future outcomes should be closely examined and considered before making big decisions for short term gains.