Three Warning Signs of Depression

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By pacwriter


A wise man once said, "History is not to be ignored".  If we ignore the economic history lessons of the last 100 years we deserve what we get. Our economic crisis is now a Depression. How long will it last? A long time!

The warning signs were there.

Bank failure

Over-priced stocks

Buying securities on credit

The federal government did not keep the financial industry in check so they ran wild with speculation. The over-valued assets to borrow more and invest more. The game would have continues another at least two more years before it came crashing down in a spectacular fall. But, Senator Shumer sent his famous letter warning of Indy Bank failure. It was all a ploy to move the presidential election focus from Iraq to focus on the American economy. The financial house of cards became unstable and did a time-lapse collapse.

So here we are in a depression. The warning signs were there but ignored. It is going to get worse.

The Federal government owes four times as much money right now as it has ever owed. The plans for future bailouts will push the federal government into another 2 trillion dollars in debt. To cover that debt the government will print an additional 2 trillion dollars. The value of the dollar will fall to half its current value. Currently, to buy a Euro it takes $1.24. Which means the dollar has lost about 44% of value in the last two years. It is difficult to fix an actual amount but if you have 4 trillion dollars in printed money and then print another 2 trillion then that reduces the value of all dollars in circulation.

Inflation will rise on the order of twenty percent in the next eighteen months. A gallon of milk at $4.00 a gallon will rise to roughly $4.80.

With inflation comes job loss. It is worth noting that most states do not count people on unemployment benefits in unemployment numbers. Chester county, South Carolina has a 20% unemployment rate but that is without factoring in the 20% receiving unemployment. If your state is stating a 10% unemployment then the actual number is way higher. Eighteen months from now the unemployed in the United States will reach the 1930's levels.

The warning signs were there but nobody paid attention. The Democratic party came to power in 2006 and since then have continued to push through higher and higher spending bills. When calls for regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae were proposed certain Democratic Senators receiving large contributions from Freddie and Fannie fought the regulations and won. The same is true for the new regulations over the financial industry. This is not placing blame but rather pointing out that in 1929 before the big crash of the American economy certain senators fought off regulations.

It is time for an American revolution. Not one with guns but with ballots. We need a national ballot put on the next election placing term limits on elected officials. The only way to stop economy coll apes in the future is to take money out of elections. Special interest groups and lobbyists will stop the contributions if they know that the congressmen men and women will not be in office long enough to stall regulations.






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pacwriter profile image

pacwriter  says:
9 months ago

History is a grand teacher. Review the events leading up to the crash of the stock market in 1929. Buying on margin is what lead to the collapse which is little different that the overvaluing of paper assests of 2007 whether they be dirivatives or morgages. Paper is still paper and has only the assigned value.

By most estimates the 2008 Market was over valued by 20% - 40%.

Janna Jones profile image

Janna Jones  says:
4 months ago

Well pacwriter, I agree with most of what you said. Although I am not sure about one of your first lines stating:

"The federal government did not keep the financial industry in check"

Were you advocating a little bit of 'social engineering'? I am a big proponant of Good Old Fashion Capitalism. The biggest quote I remember was from some HS government class "The government that governs best is the government that governs least"

Term limits, salary ends when the office ends, same benifits as everyday citizens (health, retirement etc)...hummm now where do i mail that tea bag?

Whats your thoughts on this:?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeYscnFpEyA

Janna Jones

pacwriter profile image

pacwriter  says:
4 months ago

I do do advocate more laws or more federal controls only the enforcement of what is on the books. The regulators looked the other way rather than enforcing the laws. Somebody should go to jail and I think it should be those who took payoffs for not enforcing the laws.

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