One of the crucial characteristics of any big city, therefore Toronto as well, is its transportation system. In the last four decades, Toronto has faced a population explosion: nowadays it has almost five times more citizens than in 1970. That's why our transportation system needs to change in order to be able to satisfy the changing demands. Yes, there have been some improvements in the past years, but mostly minor, providing only improvised solutions. Nevertheless, in the next years, the character of transportation in south Ontario will be totally changed by a project known as The Big Move.

MoveOntario2020 is the name of the key part of this overall transportation outlook. It has been disclosed in June 2007 (is that a coindicence that liberals were reelected just in October after that?) and people are now impatiently anticipating the new reality. There are 52 projects, planned till 2020, with the budget around $17.5 billion ($11.5 billion paid by Ontario). 1. GO Transit upgrades and extensions; 2. Major municipal transit expansions; 3. Cross-boundary subway expansions; and 4. Rapid-rail link between Toronto Union Station and Toronto

Real estate and transit system

The whole functioning of property market in Toronto is quite complicated science. It’s a very sensitive industry, where a huge number of factors have a smaller or bigger impact. It is not always possible to tell how a specific change impacts the local or global economic environment, but we can identify some crucial factors. One of the crucial factors is the transportation system.

You probably have an idea about the relevance of the transit system for the sufficient quality of living. For illustration, the direct expenses on commuting are lower, just as indirect expenses such as time consumption. Moreover, we can mention better accessibility of public facilities or cleaner air and generally healthier environment, whereas there only a few minor negative short-term aspects.

There are a number of research papers trying to quantify the influence of various improvements in transit system. One of the papers from Tinbergen Institute, dealing with railways, states a number of 25% - that is how much the positive influence of railway accesibility on home price can be. Just a simple doubling of public transport frequency increase brings average 2.5% value increase for every home in the area – just one year after the works are finished.

MoveOntario impact on the real estate in Toronto in upcoming years

We can establish the expectations on recent research made by REIN Canada. One of the crucial means of transport to shorten the commuting time is a rail commuting system, in Toronto represented by subway and GO Train system.

The positively affected areas lie in about 800m range from each station, with price maximization in 500m range. More areas affected are older neighbourhoods, similarly areas inhabited by citizens with lower average income are again more. Specifically, Toronto neighbourhoods around Spadina and Younge subway lines extensions are typical examples of the effect on property prices. The GO Train project is more complicated, the capacity should be improved in 17 projects including building new lines and/or extending the old ones, and there are 9 more projects concerning the GO Bus Rapid. Analogous effect will be evoked by new light train transit lines, involving Waterfront and Eglinton neighbourhoods.

Conclusion

It’s definitely impossible to analyze all impacts of MoveOntario 2020 on Toronto real estate in one article. Areas around Vaughan, Scarborough and Barrie will be the spots that will be most positively influenced, according to REIN. Milton, Brambton and Uxbridge&Stoufville are in the second group of areas that will be highly influenced. The property prices are expected to increase by 10-20% in these areas. In the third group we can put all Toronto regions in the vicinity of the new lines, or old lines with plans for increasing their capacity. The property prices are expected to increase about 1-3 years after the specific project is finished.

And that was still not the end. With more neighbourhoods being easily accessible thanks to the new transport system, also the quality of life near the old parts will be enhanced. Some 175 000 jobs are planned to be created thanks to MoveOntario, which may again positively influence the Toronto property prices. More citizens, more investors and more business are going to be attracted with our well functioning transport system. The whole Toronto is going to profit and property values on the whole Toronto real estate market may be positively influenced for the next decades.