UPA's win in India elections 2009: Who desrves the credit for it?

UPA has won parliamentary seats more than its expectations. On the other hand, results proved a shock to NDA. NDA's projected leader Sri Lal Krishna Adwani has declared to remain non-active in the real politics and expressed his desire not to be elected "Leader of the Opposition". Results apperaed to be the end of the road for him. None of the surveys (exit polls) could predict the real outcome. Anyways, it is now sure and certain that UPA shall form the next government within a week.

May 17, 2009

Different people are giving credit to different politicians for this success of UPA in the elections. Each and every statement has a motive behind and released to leave some specific impression. Someone is giving credit of the UPA's win to Rahul Gandhi for connecting youth with the Congress, or to organizational capabilities of Mrs Sonia Gandhi or to personal charisma of Mrs Priyanka Gandhi and few to the extra-ordinary governance skills of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his cabinet team. The very purpose of this article is to analyze the role of different players of this political game, properly credit the politicians who deserve and future implications related to political, social and economical scenerio in India.

In every political party or organization there are different type of leaders. It depends on the managerial ability of the person who is at the helm of the affairs. How does he/she select the people at different adminstrative levels, assign them different tasks and cordinate between different units and motivate people to work as a team. We'll discuss all these aspects later on but first questgion first. Who should be given credit to success of Congress in present elections?

In fact, credit for the current success to Congress goes mainly to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. Congress party always looked towards Gandhi family for the guidance in the hour of need. After the death of Late Rajiv Gandhi, Mrs Sonia Gandhi withdrew completely from the political activities and left it to survive on its own or under the guidance of senior Congress leaders. Congress party has seen several ups and downs during the post Rajiv era. Late Narsimha Rao formed the government in the centre with the help of allies and ran it successfully even in the absence of clear cut majority. People blame him for certain decision taken during his tenure but he took all these decisions under compulsion and it will be unjustified to blame him and think that Mrs Sonia Gandhi was not a party to all the decisions taken by his government. It will be alike Mr Manmohan running government without consulting Sonia Gandhi. Nobody can think of it.

How did Sonia manage to bring things on the track?

May 18, 2009

In the begining, she became active in manageing the party organization that has become weak after Rajiv's death. Bhartiya janata Party grabbed a major portion of traditional vote bank of Congress party. BJP's rise in the politics was initially based on religious feelings. However, BJP strengthened its position in politics with its superior governance and good work culture under the former Prime Minister Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee's able leadership. BJP was lucky to have a leader of Vajpayee's stature. He is a charismatic leader having extra-ordinary oratory skills. Now he has retired from active politics due to health problems and BJP don't have a leader to fill the vaccum created by retirement of Vajpayee. Vajpayee has never been a hardliner as far as religious feelings are concerned. All the remaining BJP leaders have hardliners image.

In 2004 elections, Congress was unable to form government on its own. Hence, it has to take support from other secular parties. There was a demand from within the Congress party to make Sonia the Prime Minister of India. Sonia knew it very well that she can not take decisions freely in absence of clear cut majority to Congress party and she has to depend on support of politicians like Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and Mulayam Singh Yadav. There was also a protest from BJP and other parties that she is a foreiner and should not be made the PM of India. This was the crucial juncture and she has to take a major decision. She always knew it very well that she has to face several problems if she herself becomes the PM but she can open the door of PM in future to either his son or daughter if she denies the PM's post. She took a very wise decision by declaring the name of dr Manmohan Singh as the PM. She knew it that manmohan Singh is not a politician and he doesn't have further ambitions if he becomes PM with her blessings. There were several advantages in making Manmohan Singh the PM of India.

1. He'll never do anything against her wishes and always be abide of her decisions

2. He'll provide good governance as he is a very learned man and won't indulge in dirty politics

3. Whatever good work is done by him, its advantage will always be taken by the Congress party

4. Since he doesn't have further ambitions, he'll pave the way for Rahul or Priyanka whenever opportunities come for such things to happen

5. Since Rahul is very young and need some experience, it would always be useful to be a part and parcel of a government run by a learned man and he'll do internship under the able supervision of Dr manmohan Singh.

Sonia's decision to relinquish the offer and give it to Manmohan has paid rich dividens and helped the Congress to achieve the success in 2009 elections.

Besides this, several other decisions helped Congress to achieve this spectacular success.

Risking the government on account of support to nuclear deal decision:

BJP tried to project PM Manmohan Singh as a weak PM and yesmen of Sonia. However, PM's decision to go for signing the nuclear deal even if this results in the fall of Govt. has contributed a lot to the recent success of Congress in 2009 elections. Left parties threatned to withdraw support on an issue that was very concerned with the prosperity and security of nation. Left front has to suffer a great loss in recent eections on this account.

Continuance of economic reforms:

Process of globalization took place long back and both Congress as well as BJP were part of this process initiation. Liberalization and globalization have several positive effects on the economy and social life in India besides few negative ones. Indians have experienced the benefits of liberalization and anyone who opposes either globalization or liberalization process becomes an enemy in public eyes. Best examples of this are Left front, SP, Lalu and Paswan etc. who have opposed it at some point of time. They have to suffer the loss in the 2009 elections. Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav said few lines about stopping the use of computers and English and he has to defend it within next few days. Its sheer foolishniess in present context to talk of traditional things as you have to track back due to people's resistance. Development and growth couldn't become an issue in the current elections as people couldn't find any difference between governance of UPA and NDA as policies of both front's have similarities.

Terrorism:

BJP tried to make terrorism an issue but couldn't draw public attention to it as what they were talking didn't match with their past actions. They failed to defend their actions in Kandhar episode. UPA on the other hand took few good decisions in Taj hotel attack in Mumbai that pacified the people anger. Taj episode negated the impact of inactiveness of both Congress as well UPA in the incidences of attack on outsiders in Mumbai/Maharashtra instigated by Raj Thakre's party. This issue has been dealt at length in performance evaluation of Central Govts.

Pay packages to Central Government employees:

Grant of hefty pay packages to central govt. employees by the UPA government brought the support of intellectuals to UPA and it resulted in developing a sizeable vote bank in UPA's support. Although these employees doesn't form a great number but they influence a major section of society. These are intellectuals who influence other illiterate people in society.

Congress could have improved its position in 2009 general elections if it didn't commit the following mistakes:

1. Extending support to Rabri Govt. in Bihar:

Support to RJD government in Bihar was a blunder on part of the Congress whether willingly or under compulsion.The Congress party failed to judge the mood of public and extended its blind support to RJD govt. in Bihar. Congress paid great price for it. Now it appears that UPA is trying to get rid of RJD, LJP and SP and looking for friendship with BSP in Uttar Pradesh and JDU in Bihar. It will be beneficial in the long run if these plans materialize at earliest.

2. Trying to form non-BJP government in the Jharkhand:

People of Jharkhand were trying to get out of the clutches of Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav for a long time. It was achieved by them after a long battle. NDA helped them to create their own state. However, support of Congress to independent MLA's to form govt. in Jharkhand or to people like Sibu Soren forced them to be ruled by the people they have hated for a long time. Let the people get frustrated by misrule of NDA and give them an opportunity to look towards UPA for better governance but don't force them to be exploited by the corrupt politicians.

3. Keeping mum on sensitive issues like internal security:

People in several states are suffering the wounds of naxalism. UPA government left people to their fate or to the mercy of corrupt politicians who never bothered to people's suffering and remained engage in hoarding money. major loss to congress has been in naxal hit states. People from outside the state living in Mumbai has to suffer the outrage of Raj Thakre & Co. but UPA or Congress didn't intervene. People are now more aware than before and analyze the actions of every party or government and decide to vote considering all cons and pros.

4. Keeping mum on pending pay package of university and college teachers

About six lakh college and university teachers couldn't be paid their arrears due to them on account of pay revision in the light of 6th CPC. Though cabinet approved their pay package but it couldn't be implemented for want of fitment tables. For last 7-8 months, teachers are waiting release of fitment tables by UGC & MHRD but these tables couldn't be released till date. As per news reports, this was done on the instructions of a cabinet minister who wanted teachers to vote against the ruling party. The Congress party could have got atleast 20-25 more parliamentary seats if UGC pay package could have been implemented before elections.

5. Reservations to the OBC's:

This was a very sensitive issue. It may be said to bring back OBC's to Congress fold but it can not be ruled out that this issue took away some share of congress votes.

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Considering all the above facts, it may be concluded that Mrs sonia Gandhi has been successful to a great extent to prepare the ground for the eligibilty of Mr Rahul Gandhi as the PM of India in the future at an appropriate time. There is nothing bad in it if Rahul has the ideology similar to his father and succeeds in preparing a brigade of young and honest turks to take India to great heights. Still he has 5-10 years to gain all the experience to deal with corrupt and experienced old politicians who will try to influence his thinking and decisions by all the means. Good luck to Rahul, Sonia and Congress.