Continued unrest in South America.

Is War on the horizon?

South American opportunity

***Brink of War UPDATE 11/9/2009****

Yahoo news report from Reuters on the state of South America

Colombia said on Sunday it will appeal to the U.N. Security Council and the OAS after Hugo Chavez, the fiery leftist president of neighboring Venezuela, ordered his army to prepare for war in order to assure peace.

For months Chavez has said that a military cooperation pact signed last month between Bogota and Washington could set the stage for a U.S. invasion of Venezuela from Colombian territory.

The United States and Colombia dismiss that idea, saying cooperation is aimed strictly at fighting drug traffickers and Marxist insurgents within Colombia.

During a Sunday television address, Chavez ordered his military to prepare for war as the best way to preserve peace in the region. Colombian President Alvaro Uribe shot back with a statement rejecting Chavez's remarks.

"Considering the threats of war enunciated by the government of Venezuela, the government of Colombia proposes going to the Organization of American States and the Security Council of the United Nations," the statement said.

Colombia also called for "frank dialogue" with Venezuela over their long-simmering diplomatic spat.

Venezuela has spent more than $3 billion on arms, prompting U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to warn against an arms race in the region.

Colombia recently asked the World Trade Organization to intercede after Chavez blocked the import of some Colombian goods in protest of the U.S. military pact.

After the United States, the neighboring Andean countries are each other's second biggest trade partners. Commerce last year between Colombia and Venezuela was more than $7 billion.

Colombia says the blocking of imports has exacerbated the country's recession and hurt an export sector already clobbered by low global demand brought by the world financial crisis.

Washington sees Uribe as a buffer against Chavez and other socialists in the region such as Rafael Correa of Ecuador, a country that also shares a border with Colombia.

The three leaders have all moved to extend their time in power through Constitutional changes allowing for re-election.

Both Venezuela and Ecuador break off Colombia (Columbia) ties in Andean crisis

Officials in both Ecuador and Venezuela have expelled officials from Columbia, breaking ties, pushing the crisis closer to war in South America.

Who among us can say we are truly surprised here?

The situation in Venezuela must getting tough, since socialism has hit town. It doesn't sound like it's doing the job by itself, we need a war to whip up the masses. Chavez wants and needs a war to rally his country, out of the malaise condition brought on by crappy economics. But that's not the only objective, there are more.

One of the secondary gains that could be achieved by Ecuador and Venezuela ganging up on Colombia is a corridor connecting the two. If that happens, Chavez stands to be more of a thorn, than Castro ever was. Castro was confined more because he was surrounded by water and much closer to the United States.

Columbia and Venezuela at war?

Despite the fact that Venezuela wasn't attacked by Colombia, he gets a chance to flex his muscles toward the U.S. and the rest of the world. Once an attention seeker, always an attention seeker.

At the same time, Hugo gets the opportunity to extend his influence over the northern-most portion of South America (SA), in the area that is adjacent to Central America (CA). Panama will be next.

It's not just Chavez and Correa wanting to turn SA and CA into a bloc of socialist establishments either. Evo Morales, President of Bolivia and the Shining Path of Peru would love nothing more than to create a united front against the imperialist George Bush, better known in some circles as el diablo.

The funny thing will be to see how much seriousness is given to this bad actor. How deep will this story be buried and what will be said about their hero? Let's see what Cindy Sheehan and Harry Belafonte have to say about this? I am also betting that Obama will call for talks with Chavez, one to one talks.

Many news agencies from all over the world are reporting that Colombia and Venezuela may go to war. Colombia is one of the few US allies in South America (we've given it billions of dollars in foreign aid, and supplied a few hundred troops as advisers), and Venezuela has one of the largest oil supplies in the Western hemisphere.

The background of this crisis is that Colombia launched an air strike into Ecuador territory to kill Raul Reyes, a top commander of a group of Colombian rebels. Analogies to this action might be if we invaded Pakistan to root out Al-Qaeda and Taliban members, or if (not likely to happen) Cuba launches an air strike into the U.S. aimed at anti-Castro exile terrorists such as Luis Clemente Faustino Posada Carriles.

In any case, Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa is friendly to Hugo Chavez of Venezeula, who has responded to the airstrike by shutting down the Venezuelan embassy in Bogota (capital of Colombia) and ordered ten tank battalions moved to the border of Colombia.

This could cause most of Latin America to erupt into war - Ecuador has had historical border conflicts with Peru for centuries, although they've recently been resolved, and there are quite a few nations, such as Bolivia, that are at least friendly to Chavez. Or it could settle down into nothing.

Here's what the BBC had to say:

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is sending thousands of troops and tanks to the border with Colombia, marking a sharp escalation in regional tensions.

Speaking on his weekly television show, President Chavez also said Venezuela's embassy in Colombia would close.

Mr Chavez said Colombian President Alvaro Uribe was a "criminal".

He said the killing of Raul Reyes, a top commander of the left-wing Farc rebels, just inside Ecuador on Saturday was a "cowardly murder".

Mr Chavez has been mediating with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia - or Farc - to secure the release of hostages the rebels hold, and six have so far been freed under this initiative.

But he lamented the killing of Reyes - whom he called a "good revolutionary" - and at least 16 other Farc rebels when he spoke on his show, "Alo, President".

While Iraq and Afghanistan are fresh on every U.S. citizen's war-weary mind, and the distant threat of war with Iran continues to be tossed about, a new war may take place, this one much closer to home, and it is one that will most surely play into the 2008 US Presidential elections if the crisis escalates.

In an ominous display of rhetoric, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez on Sunday threatened neighboring Colombia that the two countries could go to war if Columbia fails to control its borders.

Chavez sent tanks and thousands of troops to the countries' border Sunday and ordered his government's embassy in Bogota closed.

The leftist leader warned Colombia's U.S.-allied government that Venezuela will not permit acts like Saturday's killing of top rebel leader Raul Reyes and 16 other Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia guerrillas at a camp across the border in Ecuador.

"Mr. Defense Minister, move 10 battalions to the border with Colombia for me, immediately—tank battalions, deploy the air force," Chavez said during his weekly TV and radio program. "We don't want war, but we aren't going to permit the U.S. empire, which is the master (of Colombia) ... to come to divide us."

He ordered the Venezuelan Embassy in Bogota closed and said all embassy personnel would be withdrawn. It pushes already tense relations between the South American neighbors to their lowest point yet, with potentially far-reach effects on billions of dollars in cross-border trade.

The turmoil comes at a time when Colombia's economy appears to be thriving. The government's economic policy and democratic security strategy have engendered a growing sense of confidence in the economy, particularly within the business sector, and GDP growth in 2003 was among the highest in Latin America, at over 4%. By 2007, GDP is hoped to grow 8%.

Colombia is the United States' fifth-largest export market in Latin America--behind Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, and Argentina--and the 26th-largest market for U.S. products worldwide.

In recent months, a number of U.S. airlines have been vying for approval to fly in and out of the country.

A war in the region could set back Colombia's economy.

For the U.S. Presidential candidates, a war between Venezuela and Colombia is sure to take center stage with the strong likelihood that the United States would help its ally, Colombia, not to mention that Chavez has mentioned the U.S. in his rhetoric.

Chavez called the Colombian government "a terrorist state" as he sided with the leftist rebels it has battled for decades, saying its military "invaded Ecuador, flagrantly violated Ecuador's sovereignty."

Neither Colombia's foreign minister nor the country's military leadership would comment on Chavez's latest move when pressed by reporters for comment Sunday as they left a funeral service in Bogota for a Colombian soldier killed in Saturday's raid.

Speaking in Texas, U.S. National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said officials were monitoring the situation.

"This is an odd reaction by Venezuela to Colombia's efforts against the FARC, a terrorist organization that continues to hold Colombians, Americans and others hostage," Johndroe said.

Chavez said he had just spoken to Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa and that Ecuador was also sending troops to its border with Colombia. Chavez said his Ecuadorean ally told him that Uribe had lied and that the rebels were killed while asleep "in their pajamas."

"This is something very serious. This could be the start of a war in South America," Chavez said. He warned Colombian President Alvaro Uribe: "If it occurs to you to do this in Venezuela, President Uribe, I'll send some Sukhois"—Russian warplanes recently bought by Venezuela.

He called Uribe "a criminal" accusing him of being a "lapdog" of Washington saying "Dracula's fangs (are) are covered in blood."

"The Colombian government has become the Israel of Latin America," an agitated Chavez said, mentioning another country that he has criticized for its military strikes. "We aren't going to permit Colombia to become the Israel of these lands. ... Uribe, we aren't going to permit you."

"Someday Colombia will be freed from the hand of the (U.S.) empire," Chavez said. "We have to liberate Colombia," he added, saying Colombia's people will eventually do away with its government.

Chavez maintains warm relations with the Colombia's largest guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, and has sought to play a role as mediator in the conflict despite his growing conflict with Colombia's government.

Online in Colombia - Great Home based opportunity to avoid conflict.

Colombia:

Columbia's total armed forces in 2002 amounted to 158,000 active personnel with 60,700 reserves. The army of 136,000 is organized in five divisions of 17 infantry brigades. Air force personnel numbered 7,000. The navy had 15,000 personnel, including 10,000 marines. There is also a 104,600-member national police force. Defense expenditures in 2001 amounted to $3.3 billion, or 3.4% of GDP.

Venezuela:

Total armed strength in 2002 was 82,300, including 23,000 members of the Fuerzas Armados de Cooperacion, an internal security force. The army had 34,000 regulars, including six infantry divisions and 12 specialized brigades. Equipment included 81 main battle tanks and close to 200 light tanks. The navy had 18,300 members, including 7,800 marines, 1,000 Coast Guard members, and 500 Naval Aviators; naval strength included two submarines and six frigates. The air force had 7,000 personnel, 125 combat aircraft, and 31 armed helicopters. Defense expenditures in 1999 were $934 million, or 0.9% of the GDP.

Ecuador:

In 2002 the active armed forces of Ecuador numbered 59,500 and were backed up by 100,000 reserves. The army numbered 50,00 operating in four defense zones. The navy consisted of 5,500 personnel including 1,700 marines. The air force had 4,000 members commanding 79 combat aircraft. There were also 270 coast guards. In 1998, Ecuador spent $720 million on defense, or3.4% of GNP.

Left to their own, this might be a fairly even fight depending also on internal strife--Colombia could be crippled by some of the internal leftist opposition that Venezuela appears to be supporting. Hoewever, the US is supporting Colombia, not least because those leftist groups support themselves through narcotrafficking.

The Columbian military has around 380,000 men between the army, marines and airforce. The army has been mostly U.S trained and has combat experience. The Air Force has 15 French Mirages and 20 Israeli K-Firs.

The Venezuelan Army and National Guard have 87,000 men and 25 Russian Sukhois and 20 American F-16 that are mothballed after the U.S refused to provide spare parts.

Ecuador's Army is 57,000 strong and their airforce has 15 French Mirage 2000.