I GUESS IT IS OKAY 

TO BE RIGHT 51% OF THE TIME,

 BUT IT IS BETTER TO BE CORRECT

 THIS TIME!

THE BIGGEST UP DAY IN STOCK MARKET HISTORY CAME THREE CALENDAR DAYS AFTER MY HUB POST BELOW.

IT WASN'T AN OFF HAND REMARK. IT WAS THE SYNTHESIS OF THREE WEEKS OF TURMOIL AND TRAVAILS

AND INQUIRIES FROM CLIENTS AND COLLEAGUES ACCUMULATED IN 26 YEARS IN THE INVESTMENT BUSINESS.

BEING A CONTRARIAN IS DIFFICULT.

BEING A CONTRARIAN IS NECESSARY FOR SURVIVAL.

The Big Picture comes into focus when you--yes YOU understand that there are some people who should never, ever, ever be involved in the stock market.

   Okay, maybe in mutual funds, but not in individual common stocks.

   You are one of these people if:

	1. You check your prices every day or every hour and get worried if you are losing money on paper.

        2. If you get headaches or stomach cramps when you see your monthly statement is lower than the previous month.

        3. You believe every friend, coworker, or relative who regales you with their stock market, real estate, gold, and other investment home runs, but has never once admitted to striking out.

If on the other hand you have some risk tolerance, then the level of "market participation" for folks already retired on fixed incomes is much lower than those starting out after college or high school, or those still raising kids.

     However, even if you are retiring in five or ten years, given life expectancies these days, I think there is often a place for "businessman's risk" investing with a portion of your money.

This is not scientific, but you probably SHOULD BE INVESTING right now--even if we crash again--if you do similar things to those habits of yours truly listed below:

	When REAL BUTTER is on sale in the grocery store I buy five or six pounds and put them in the freezer;

        When the three supermarkets in my closest town (19 miles away) send me sales brochures the same week, I take the time to shop all three stores and BUY ONLY THE SALE ITEMS;

        In my golfing days I bought only $10 per dozen golf balls, any brand, from K-Mart, but when Titlest had a sale I didn't mind purchasing two or three dozen of the $29.99 per dozen balls

at half price to hide in my locker until needed;

        I truly believe that the work involved in having two wonderful dogs is easier than taking care of one lonely dog.

My wife always reminds me when I'm wrong....it's sooooo nice to be right once in awhile....

Oct 10th note below...

ONE NEVER PICKS THE MARKET TOP OR BOTTOM..BUT APPLYING CYCLICAL ELECTION YEAR MARKETS TO THE EXAMPLES OF THE CRASH OF 1987..GOING INTO A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND G-7 MEETING:

I think there is a very good chance.....

the S&P 500 closes the year

at 1,376 or higher....

which would mark a retracement just to the

April year-to-date high..

..this would follow the 1987 technical model.