New Cost Estimate for the Health Care Bill

Posted by Jim Harper, November 9, 2009 at 8:09 am

A new cost estimate for the health care bill that the House passed Saturday puts it at about $15,000 per U.S. family. That’s a lot of scratch! An earlier estimate came in at only half that much.

But it’s important not to over-read the estimate. Instead, familiarize yourself with our methodology for scoring bills. We count taxes and revenues as costs to taxpayers, and we treat spending as costs because they move money from the treasury that we all own.

In this bill, the government health insurance “public option” is a big part of what drives the numbers. This is because it has both a revenue component and a spending component.

Some would argue that our methodology double counts the public option. And it is important to understand that it’s pretty much deficit neutral, meaning that it doesn’t increase the national debt because it takes in the amount of money that it spends. We are always looking for ways to present cost information in the most sensible, complete, and scalable way.

We won’t take on the question here of whether the “public option” would ultimately swallow the entire health insurance market. The dollar figure we’re reporting is simply based on the Congressional Budget Office estimate. If you want to read that estimate yourself, of course, you can go to the page for H.R. 3962, scroll down to the “Learn More” box and click on “Read an Analysis of the Bill.”

In the meantime, here’s the current vote on H.R. 3962, the Affordable Health Care for America Act. Click to vote, comment, learn more, or edit the wiki article about the bill.

Now I don't have insurance we just lost our business. So 9 people lost their jobs and I lost my income. Now I'm working hard to get my business up and running again but why should I if I will be tax to pay for this CRAP. I feel that we need to wake this country up and tell these D.C. TAX AND GRAB Pros's need to be voted out this next election. If you look at the polls that they live and die by. The majority of Americans don't support this bill but they past it anyways. They don't care how we feel they are doing this to grab more power from us. They know they only have 11 months to push all of this crap down our throats. We can stand here and let them grab this power or we can get vocal about it call you news papers call the T.V. news stations and Tell them to tell to do their jobs and report that we are not going to stand fore this CRAP. This crap is costing me COB #s $19,496.94 at the job that I have right now this is 48% of my income, hey liberals how does that work. Basically .48cents of every dollar that I make will go to pay for this. I was only paying $10,000.00 before well that is how they do math $19,496.94 is less some how? and they say they are smarter than the rest of us,Oh I mean more sophisticated than the rest of the unwashed Americans. WAKE UP AMERICA BEFOR IT IS TO LATE. WE CAN STOP THIS NOW JUST TELL THIS GROPE OF MONEY GRUBERS TO LET GO OF OUR WALLETS.

What People Think About The Affordable Health Care for America Act

15% For, 85% Against

AP POLL: How to pay for health overhaul? Tax rich

• Buzz up!787 votes
• •  

Play Video AP – AP Poll: Experiences shape health care views

• Play Video Video:AP Poll: Americans conflicted about health care AP
• Play Video Video:Senate Push for Health Care Bill ABC News

Related Quotes Symbol Price Change^DJI 10,437.42 +30.46^GSPC 1,110.32 +1.02^IXIC 2,203.78 +5.93 AP – Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nev., center, is asked questions by reporters on Capitol Hill in … By ERICA WERNER, Associated Press Writer Erica Werner, Associated Press Writer – Tue Nov 17, 4:33 pm ET

WASHINGTON – Americans don't want to shoulder the cost of President Barack Obama's health care overhaul themselves. They think the rich should pay for it.

That's the finding from a new Associated Press poll, and it could be a boost for House Democrats, who have proposed taxing upper-income people to fund their sweeping remake of the U.S. medical system. Their plan, which the House approved this month, would extend coverage to millions of uninsured Americans.

The poll, conducted by Stanford University with the nonpartisan Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, found survey participants sour on other ways of paying for the health overhaul that is being considered in Congress.

The options they don't like include taxing insurers on the high-value coverage packages derided by Obama and Democrats as "Cadillac plans." That tax approach, being weighed in the Senate, is one of the few proposals in any congressional legislation that analysts say would help reduce the nation's health expenditures. It has come under fire from organized labor and has little support in the House.

Lawmakers also are looking at levying new taxes on insurance companies, drug companies and medical device makers. But the only approach that got majority support in the AP poll was a tax on upper-income Americans.

The House bill would impose a 5.4 percent income tax surcharge on individuals making more than $500,000 a year and households making more than $1 million.

The poll tested views on an even more punitive taxation scheme that was under consideration earlier, when the tax would have hit people making more than $250,000 a year. Even at that level the poll showed majority support, with 57 percent in favor and 36 percent opposed.

"You know, I mean, why not? If they have that much money, it should be taxed," said Mary Pat Rondthaler, 60, of Menlo Park, Calif. "It isn't the same way that the guy making $21,000 is."

Not everyone agreed.

"They earn their money. And they shouldn't have to pay for somebody else. It doesn't seem fair," said Emerson Wilkins, 62, of Powder Springs, Ga.

An income tax increase on all Americans to pay for a health care remake — an approach Congress never considered — was overwhelmingly rejected in the poll. Seventy-five percent opposed that idea, and only nineteen percent were in favor.

Overall, the poll found the public split on Congress' health care plans. In response to some questions, participants said the current system needed to be changed, but they also voiced concerns about the impact on their own pocketbooks, preferring to push any new costs onto wealthier Americans.

For example, 77 percent said the cost of health care in the United States was higher than it should be, and 74 percent favored the broad goal of reducing the amount of money paid by patients and their insurers. But 49 percent said any changes made by the government probably would cause them to pay more for health care. Thirty-two percent said it wouldn't change what they pay, and just 12 percent said they would end up paying less.

With lawmakers searching for new revenue sources to pay for the overhaul legislation, upper-income taxes may be increasingly gaining favor.

Legislation passed by Senate committees did not go that route, but now Majority Leader Harry Reid, who has a free hand in merging two committee-passed bills, is considering raising the payroll tax that goes to Medicare on income above $250,000 a year, officials told The Associated Press last week. Current law sets the tax at 1.45 percent of income, an amount matched by employers.

The Senate Finance Committee bill would tax health insurance plans costing more than $8,000 annually for individuals and $21,000 for families, although those numbers are expected to end up higher in Reid's bill. Union members are lined up against that approach because they fear their benefits could be hurt, and the public doesn't like it either, the AP poll found. Fifty-six percent were opposed and only 29 percent were in favor.

Other payment methods being contemplated on Capitol Hill also met with disapproval. Participants in the poll didn't support new taxes on medical device makers, drug companies or even insurers — even though they said in response to different questions that drug companies and insurance companies made too much money.

Forty-eight percent in the poll were opposed to new taxes on insurance companies, and 42 percent were in support. Fifty-one percent opposed raising taxes on drug and device makers, while 41 percent supported that approach.

But 72 percent of people polled said insurance companies made too much profit, compared with 23 percent who said they made about the right amount. And 74 percent said drug companies made too much profit, versus 21 percent who said they made about the right amount.

People who told pollsters they generally supported Congress' health care overhaul plan were also more receptive to new taxes to pay for it. Taxing health care companies, drug companies and equipment manufacturers eked out majority support from that group.

The payment approach that met with least approval by far in the poll was borrowing the money and increasing the federal debt, something Obama has repeatedly vowed not to do. Just 6 percent of people polled said they could support that approach, while 88 percent opposed it.

The poll was based on landline and cell phone interviews with 1,502 adults from Oct. 29 to Nov. 8. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The interviews were conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media. Stanford University's participation was made possible by a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, which conducts research on all facets of the health care system.

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AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson and AP Writers Natasha Metzler and Ann Sanner contributed to this report.

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Poll details at http://surveys.ap.org