Weekend Update 2
64Week of: Saturday 10/31 - Thursday 11/05
This is your fantasy basketball weekend update. You can catch the latest NBA and fantasy basketball news every weekend at hubpages.com/hub/FantasyBasketball
Contents
This week I have broken down the weekend update into several sections:
(1) RANT and RAVE-- Two takes each week: one bad one, one good one. This week I spout off on the most under-performing player in the league, and give a glowing review of one of the biggest surprise performers making noise for a championship contender this season.
(2) HOT or NOT -- Highlights 5 of the week's best players and 5 of the week's most disappointing players.
(3) News Nuggets -- This has nothing to do with Denver. These are small snippets of information on what players are doing around the league.
(4) Injury Report -- Find out who will be on the sidelines in a suit, and who will suit up in their absence.
(5) Watch List -- I keep you up-to-date on a few guys that are opening eyes on the watch list boards.
(6) Bonus Banter -- I give my two cents on a subject being talked about around the NBA.
Rant
Dear Anthony Randolph,
What's going on? Seriously, WHAT IS GOING ON? Are you hurt? Is it the coach? It’s the coach, isn’t it? Well, don't worry about that. We all know you are too good to play just 7 minutes against a bad team in a game where your only other "bigs" were either injured, in foul trouble, or Miki Moore. You just keep playing your game and Nelly will come around..... I hope.
Randolph was everyone’s pick to have a breakout season, and that includes me. I feel responsible for him because I convinced my brother to take him with a high draft pick. He seemed like a can’t miss prospect. However (at least so far) we found out we could miss. But what Randolph is really missing is time. He hasn’t played bad while he’s been on the court. He just so happens to be playing for Coach Nelson. At the risk of this becoming a Coach Nelson rant instead of an Anthony Randolph one, let me just say, Coach, please play your best young players and let them develop for the good of the franchise (and fantasy owners). Golden State is loaded with talent. But none of the players (or analysts or fans) know what to expect on a nightly basis. Everyone is worried about their time - about doing something wrong and never getting another chance. With the right coach, I believe that Golden State would be playoff bound. With what they’ve got on the sidelines though, they’ll have one of the ten worst records in basketball.
All that said, I think it's still a little too early to let go of him. If you need a reason or a reminder why, look at his stats from the end of last year. That's what you can get and more this season. I'm just waiting for a break out game and maybe a little consistency in minutes. I'd give him at least one more week to wait for something to develop. If nothing positive happens, then it's time to cut your losses and look at what else is out there, and hope you can get him back if the tides start to shift in the Bay Area.
Rave
JJ Redick! Well speak of the Blue Devil, it looks like he finally figured out the NBA game! I don’t think the 27 point outburst against Toronto on Sunday was a fluke (although it was a career high). While I don’t expect him to hit that for a nightly average, Redick looks vastly improved and much more confident this year. Also, as I wrote before the season, Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston’s departure opened up time for him and Coach Van Gundy has been praising his defense. Expect solid production in a few categories with increased minutes and efficiency. There’s only positive news coming out on him, and I wouldn’t be too worried about Rashard Lewis coming back. That will impact Matt Barnes’ minutes more than Redick’s. Of more consequence will be Vince Carter’s return, and Mikael Pietrus and Jason Williams’ play. Regardless, if he plays well enough and can defend, Redick will be in there for a minimum of 20-25 minutes per game. He led the team with 44 minutes 50 seconds on the court Sunday and has been getting it done in rebounds and assists as well.
HOT
(1) Chris Paul - phenomenal shooting and great all-around production despite dip in assists.
(2) Ben Gordon - increased shooting percentage and points per game so far while benefitting from Hamilton's injury.
(3) Erick Dampier - putting up some big double-doubles with impressive block totals.
(4) Carmello Anthony - how hot is this guy? He should come with a "caution: flammable" label!
(5) Ryan Anderson - nobody has hit more threes than Mr. Anderson. He has a few more games to relish his role before Rashard comes back.
NOT
(1) Dwight Howard - foul trouble has been the main factor in Howard appearing on this list. I don't expect him to be here again.
(2) John Salmons - horrible shooting to start the season. Currently in the 20% range and in high volume shot totals. Defense is only saving grace.
(3) Mike Conley - has not been shooting well and will be the most likely victim of Iverson's return.
(4) Rafer Alston and Courtney Lee - nobody has had more shooting difficulties than these two teammates. Playing for New Jersey, they just can't seem to find the bottom of the Nets.
(5) Ron Artest - slow start for the Lakers hasn't hurt the team. His dropoff in production was to be expected and it shouldn't go anywhere but south when Pau returns.
News Nuggets
Besides JJ Redick, another Orlando player who is playing better than expected is Ryan Anderson. He has been producing, especially from long distance. He had 20 points against Toronto in Sunday’s victory on 7-14 shooting and 5-8 from the arc (By the way, three players hit at least 5 threes for Orlando in that game – Anderson, Redick, and Jameer Nelson – on the way to a team total of 17-32). But Anderson didn’t stop there. He nailed 3-3 from distance on his way to another 20-point game on 8-14 shooting on Nov 4, a day after his worst performance of the season. Preseason included, Anderson has been knocking down treys like it’s his job (although I guess it pretty much is). He is a great addition, but only in the short term. As well as he’s been playing, there will not be significant minutes available to him once Rashard Lewis comes back from suspension and Vince Carter recovers from his ankle injury. I’ve already had to reject one trade proposal for this guy. Don’t be fooled into buying high and selling low on him. He’s only got a few games left.
One final spotlight on Orlando is none other than Dwight Howard. After starting the season poorly from the foul line (nothing new there), he hit 14 of 16 against Toronto and then 7 of 8 Wednesday night against the Suns. Maybe it is just a lucky streak. Or maybe this is the improvement I wrote about before the season began in my head-to-head ranking article. As well as he’s shot from the foul line in recent days, though, he’s put up some of his most disappointing stat lines in recent memory the last two nights; one due to foul trouble and the other an inexplicable 6 rebound and 0 steal performance. Fun Fact: Tuesday night, Dwight Howard had more fouls (6) than he did rebounds (5), assists (0), steals (0), and three point shots (0) combined. He also contributed just 8 points in 16 minutes before fouling out. This will likely be the worst game of Howard’s season.
Brandon Jennings went off at the end of the third quarter of the Pistons game and made me a believer. There were several highlight reel plays during that stretch and this just happens to be his finest one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jaj_LRu5Z5o. He looks like the real deal. Especially with Michael Redd now out indefinitely, he will be counted on for a lot of scoring, and will be especially productive in the steals department as well. He is showing an enormous amount of confidence and if I could have a re-do, I would I make him my pick for Rookie of the Year instead of Blake Griffin.
Rookies in general are having more impact than I expected despite Blake Griffin and Tyler Hansbrough going down to injuries before the season. Aside from the aforementioned Jennings, Tyreke Evans, Jonny Flynn, Dejuan Blair, Ty Lawson, and Terrence Williams have shown promise in the early going.
From Toronto, Andrea Bargnani and Chris Bosh both have been very impressive to start. There isn’t enough room on the stat sheet for these guys. Congratulations to proud owners.
Two top point guards, Derrick Rose and Jose Calderon have underperformed so far. Rose may have an excuse having his time limited while recovering from a bum ankle. Calderon doesn’t. A couple more games like the ones he’s had (not bad, not great) and I would start to worry if I were an owner.
Speaking of disappointing, Minnesota forward Ryan Gomes outperformed his teammate, Al Jefferson, in their first three games. If Ryan Gomes were scoring 25 points and hauling in 12 boards per game then fantasy owners would be okay with that. Unfortunately, Gomes’ actual numbers are a much more mundane 12 and 8. But just when Jefferson owners were getting worried, Al started picking it up. He’s played better each game, and is back to hitting the 20+ point mark consistently. Now it's a matter of putting it all together again as he still hasn't filled the stat sheet in points, rebounds, and blocks in a single game this year.
Another member of the Wolves’ pack, Corey Brewer, is an excellent combo guard pickup who can get you help in offense and defense. Meanwhile, Ramon Sessions has failed to meet my mediocre expectations thus far. He has begun to challenge rookie point guard Jonny Flynn for time, but has failed to capitalize on his opportunities. Until he begins to play like he did at times the past two seasons, he is only worth a deep league watch.
On the flip side, Jermaine O’Neal’s career is revitalized in Miami and the Heat, as a team, are benefitting – not to mention O’Neal owners.
Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby are in a position battle in Atlanta. Crawford won that battle for the first time Sunday versus the Lakers fetching 31 minutes to Bibby’s 23. Crawford started out slow from distance this season, making only 1 out of his first 10 attempts, but he is starting to pick it up in a big way, at least in terms of scoring (over 26 per game in his last 2 games). His minutes seem to no longer be a concern at this point, as he has gotten at least 30 each game since Sunday. For now, it looks like Bibby and Crawford can co-exist in Atlanta without hurting each other’s stats too much.
I asked for more proof before I would pick up Grant Hill and he keeps giving it to me. But who isn’t worried about the 37-year old’s health while he is logging between 35-40 minutes per game in Phoenix? Granted, he has been pretty good in that department the last couple seasons, but I will always have those reservations about him. He is certainly worth the risk for many fantasy teams right now, despite his first (very) poor performance of the season Wednesday night.
Channing Frye is doing just what I expected him to do playing with Steve Nash in Phoenix: nailing a lot of threes but failing to do much else. Frye started out fast: 12 threes in two games over last weekend. He will continue to produce multiple threes, and about 14 points per game on mid-40’s for FG%, but be prepared for disappointing totals in rebounds, steals, and blocks for a big man. You should also expect some inconsistency, with disappointing nights like when he cooled off and went 2-6 for 5 points and 4 rebounds Wednesday night. When his shooting is off, he won’t help you in anything. If you are an owner, get used to the frustration or else try to work out a trade when he is on a hot streak and his value is up.
Amare Stoudemire hasn’t had a huge game yet. He has been okay but we want great from Amare… or at least very good. He has shown a slight upward trend this week. Let’s hope it continues.
Andrew Bynum, meanwhile, has been excellent from day one. He is proving that when he is healthy, he is one of the top centers in the league. The Lakers have a very good team even without Pau Gasol, and it’s becoming difficult to imagine either the Lakers or the Celtics not making it to the finals (barring injury of course).
As the first draft pick over Kevin Durant three years ago, Greg Oden must play considerably better than this to not be considered a bust. However, he is at least producing enough in rebounds and blocked shots these days to get noticed by fantasy owners. I think what you see right now is what you’ll get from Oden the rest of this season and probably his career, so don’t add him thinking he’ll develop a whole bunch. He will never be better than mediocre because he just does not have a strong mentality. He is a gentle giant; an injury-prone gentle giant who does not possess good footwork or a shooting touch.
Chris Paul may not lead the league in assists again after all. That’s because it is not possible for him to collect as many assists when he has nobody who can score the ball to pass to and no freak athletes to provide the oops to his alleys. Teams can also lock down on him on defense much better without any other real threats besides David West. That's what has made his great start so impressive. But I am concerned about what the huge load (and the frustration and disappointment) will do to him over the course of the full season. All you second-pick-of-the-draft owners – congratulations on LeBron James!
Give Carmello Anthony his props. He has been lighting it up this year. He looks like a steal so far considering he wasn't drafted until the second or third rounds in most leagues. He is the leading candidate this year for what I call the ROI Guy Award (Return on Investment). That's the player who most outperforms his average draft position. You usually find a guy like him near the top of the standings in the list of players held by the top 500 public league teams. Right now, he happens to be second behind Paul Pierce in head-to-head leagues.
Chris Kaman is competing for that ROI Guy award as well, and he happens to also be in the top 10 on that top 500 list. As long as he stays healthy he’ll continue to put up those monstrous numbers in points, rebounds, and blocks. Like I said before the season, he is looking like one of the top X factors for winning owners this year. I don't know why I didn't get him in my leagues but that is my second biggest regret of this young season.
Al Horford has been a consistent solid presence inside for the Hawks. He is gobbling up rebounds and finishing around the hoop. He should continue to do this throughout the season.
Zach Randolph is off to a very good start. Like you didn’t know he was going to average a double-double in Memphis. He is scoring more than I expected and that’s because he is the initiator in his team’s offensive sets. They look to dump it down to him in the post and then play off of him. With so many touches, the points should continue to pour in. Is it too much to ask for a few more assists as well? If he doesn’t get them, his team will suffer the consequences and the Grizzlies may try to do something different.
Matt Barnes has continued to play well over the last three games while the dynamic duo of Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter is still out. You may be able to squeak a few more good games out of him before they return, at which point he will not get enough time to produce relevant fantasy numbers. Still, he and second year player Ryan Anderson have proven the Magic have a solid lineup beyond the “Big Three” of Howard, Carter, and Lewis, and are a force to be reckoned with in the quest for a Championship.
Someone please coin a nickname for Steve Nash. He was MVP of the league two straight years. He routinely leads the NBA in assists and is easily leading that category so far this year. He is a lock for the Hall of Fame. No nickname. Come on people. Somebody who assists a lot… The Stewardess? Something that rhymes with Canada? I don’t know! Please, leave a comment if you have an idea. This is important!
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Injury Report
Mike Miller (Washington) – Out 7-10 days with a shoulder strain. Randy Foye and Deshawn Stevenson will have about a week to contribute.
Kevin Martin (Sacramento) – Has a hairline fracture in his left wrist. They are not sure of a timeframe for his recovery yet, but don't be too worried. He played with it Wednesday and collected 29 points on 11-22 shooting. Not bad. UPDATE: Kevin Martin has decided to undergo surgery on his wrist on Monday and will be out at least 2 months.
Andres Nocioni (Sacramento) – The former Bull got a DUI charge, and is facing a possible league suspension a day after starting and having perhaps his most productive game of the season. Meanwhile, the injuries are beginning to mount up for a Sacramento Kings team that was already projected to be among the worst teams in the league.
Richard Hamilton (Detroit) -- Still recovering from an ankle injury, Hamilton is traveling with the team this weekend but still wearing a walking boot. He probably won't play until sometime next week. In the meantime, Gordon and Stuckey will pick up the slack.
Devin Harris (New Jersey) -- The news keeps getting worse for Harris owners and the New Jersey Nets. Harris is now scheduled to be out for perhaps the next 4 weeks with a strained groin muscle. Chris Douglas Roberts is now an especially good pickup in average-deep leagues.
Yi Jianlian (New Jersey) -- The news keeps getting worse for Yi owners and the New Jersey Nets. Yi is expected to miss "at least 3 weeks" with a sprained MCL (knee). I can tell you that a knee issue like that will most likely take longer than those three weeks. Expect Yi to be out for more like 1-2 months and decide whether he is worth holding onto if you own him. In the meantime, Terrence Williams is now an especially good pickup in average-deep leagues.
Nate Robinson (New York) -- Suffered a sprained right ankle and should be sidelined for another week at least.
Michael Redd (Milwaukee) -- Man, I feel bad for this guy. He strained the patella tendon in his surgically repaired right knee and is out for two weeks before having his knee reevaluated. "I hate it. I just hate it," an exasperated Redd said of the injury. Unfortunately, chronic knee issues like this don't just go away in two weeks and Redd knows it. They really take years and often players never really return to their top form, especially at Redd's age and with his previous host of surgeries. Dealing with an injury like this near the start of the season is devestating. If he tries to play through he will never play another healthy game this season, and if he waits for it to heal, he is going to be out for a very long time. Definitely consider dropping him if there is anybody worth picking up out of the free agent list.
Tayshaun Prince (Detroit) - He had gone 496 straight games without missing one. That came to an end Tuesday due to a back strain. He is day-to-day for now and should return sometime next week. With Hamilton also out, Detroit will need big nights out of Gordon and Stuckey.
Vince Carter (Orlando) - Dealing with lingering ankle soreness, after returning for one game Carter decided he needed more rest. Expect him to be back in action any day now. With Mikael Pietrus also back from injury, JJ Redick may return to a bench role. We will see how that affects his production.
Troy Murphy (Indiana) - No stranger to the Injury list, Murphy fell hard to the ground Wednesday and bruised his back. It may keep him out of action for the next few games. This would be a good time for Hansbrough to make his debut.
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Watch List
Goran Dragic has been a serviceable backup to Steve Nash. Depending on the size of your league, put him on your watch list. They can’t continue to play Nash for 40 minutes a game. Nash is incredibly durable and is longer lasting than the energizer bunny but even that guy runs out of power at some point.
Watch Chris Douglas Roberts in NJ, especially while Devin Harris is out for an extended period.
Ty Lawson big game, and went for 23 points on Wednesday. Despite seeing such limited time playing behind Chauncey Billups on the Denver Nuggets, he is among the leaders for rookies in scoring with 11.2 points per game. Like Dejuan Blair in San Antonio, he just needs more time.
Roy Hibbert was a beast Wednesday. He went for 15 points, 14 rebounds and 2 blocks. And it's not a fluke either! The man is averaging a double-double this year and currently ranks among the leaders in blocks. Not noticing him earlier is my biggest regret of this early season. If he is available in your league, stop reading and snatch him up now!
A man by the name of Oleksiy Pecherov is starting for the wolves and putting up decent offensive numbers. He had 24 on 9-14 shooting Wednesday and is averaging 11.2 points and 4.4 rebounds on the year.
Taj Gibson of the Chicago Bulls had his best game of the season Thursday night. This was due in part because Tyrus Thomas came off the bench after missing the previous night's game with the flu. Perhaps he was still feeling under the weather. However, Thomas seems to be in the dog house at times with Coach Vinny Del Negro and Gibson has been a solid role player throughout the preseason and the first few games of the regular season. Taj will probably have nights where he only gets 10-15 minutes and does nothing relevant for a fantasy stat line. Overall, though, he should be able to produce something like 8-9 points and 5-6 rebounds with good percentages from the field and the stripe. Obviously, this makes him only a deep league prospect for the time being.
Chase Budinger has shown a lot of potential in Houston. He is going to be a good player and should put up good enough stats this year to be in consideration for a deep league roster spot.
Basketball Banter
How about those Houston Rockets! With Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and Ron Artest out of the picture, who thought they would start the year 3-1? That's not to mention they almost took down the defending champs before losing in overtime for what could have been a 4-1 start! Trevor Ariza exerted himself a little too much in that game going 5-21, obviously wanting to show his former team they made a bad decision letting him go. But he had a good game otherwise, as did all of the undersized Rockets. So how are they doing so well? Are teams taking them too lightly? Or are these role players really that good and we just never knew it? Whatever the case, they are competing and they deserve a lot of credit. I still don’t think they can keep it up, but they have surprised me once already. Who knows, maybe we shouldn’t write them out of the playoff picture yet. Eehhh, maybe we shouldn’t go that far.
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