What Is The Future Of Globalization?
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The other day I was commenting on a hub, and I realized a few things that I have not heard any talk about or if people even realized, with regards of globalization and current state of the economy. It been kind of linked together, but not in the way that I saw it at that moment. I will explain my logic. I may find out later that I am off my rocker on this, but it seems to logically connect together so far.
In 2007 and 2008, globalization was in force as strong as ever. Everything was going on in China. It seemed liked about every corporation wanted to build a facility and have their products made in China. I even have a personal friend who is in China, starting up a division for his employer in China.
At that time in 2007 and 2008, all of the freight ships were tied up shipping to and from China. The price of scape metal went sky high because China could not supply enough raw material to produce the products. Ships were freighting everything to and from China. The futures on oil sky rocketed because the oil demand was appearing to be more than the supply. Then it seemed to all crash. Gas prices topped $4.00 a gallon. Consumers were struggling with the high cost of gas, food and other essentials. So much that they started having trouble with their loans and debts. Loans started being defaulted on. Pretty soon the housing markets started struggling with defaulted loans and the housing market crashed dived. This strained the banks and the bad practices of the banks surfaced and caused even more problems and so forth. So this is where we are sitting at to day.
Well, I am no economic expert, but i just tied the recession back to globalization. One of the biggest problem being transportation of the products. If you make everything in China, you will need to ship everything to and from China, using a lot of fuel to do this. So all of the global warming alarmist should be against globalization, but I have not seen anything to show difference in this area. They are just talking about how China is polluting, and giving them a free-from-jail card to pollute.
Globalization is nothing new. In the 60's and 70's, Japan was the one who was making everything. They were the China back then. After a few decades, the shift of wealth caused the Japanese standard of living to rise so high, that they are now one of the higher cost producing countries in the world.
I basically see the large corporation, which a mostly European centered with some American one intermingled, (which is the heart of socialism who are supposed to hate capitalism), to keep looking for cheap wage countries and enter those countries to have then produce cheap products. And like Japan, once the wealth is transferred, and they no longer can be the cheap producer, the corporations will move on to other countries. One could say, this is one way to bring the third world countries out of poverty, but so far most of these third country worlds have been to unstable to work with.
I guess when at the end of everything, once all of the cheap wage countries are exhausted, with the high cost of transportation, and the need of transporting raw materials, we may be back to local producing. If wages all neutralize out. It may be come cheaper to start producing locally again.
To summarize, wages are effect the bottom lime more than transportation, but in the future, with rising transportation costs, the transportation costs will influence the corporations back to making the products closer to the point of sales and raw material. Right now, it seems like corporations want these big mega facility where they can mass produce cheaply and ship out from there to all over the world. As transportation cost rise, this may start to prove more expensive, and the smaller efficient facilities locally may start to come back and be utilized. This may be even back to be more to the advantage of small mom and pop type, where they can produce locally with low overhead.
This will be interesting watching this has our world changes and where things will head.
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Comments
Thanks for hubbing by, TMB.
More I think about it, it could be a safe for China. We really can't default on it. If we do, they come and start buying up all of the US and they will basically own everything. I think that is how Japan got back a lot of their debt, they bought a lot in the US.
Keep on Hubbing!
Hi Eovery - I kept an eye out for this one.
It is certainly an interesting idea - like you, I am no economist, but transporting goods around the world seems to be crazy, sometimes. I worked for a supermarket chain in the UK, and they imported chicken products from Thailand and asparagus from Kenya - that seems insane when we could grow them locally!
Make no bones about it - whilst Europe has some socialist ideals (health and education), it is still strongly capitalist, and has been for some time. I worked in the corporate system for many years, and hated it - outsourcing drives down wages for everybody.
Something else to throw in - I think that time poverty is much of the reason for using the big stores rather than the local. When two people work long hours, they do not have time to visit local shops, and end up rushing around Wal-Mart, because they can buy everything in one place.
Since I started working for myself, I can make time to visit the market and the local baker. Not only is local food cheaper, it is far tastier! I hope that you are right, and more Americans start supporting their local businesses :)
It is hard for me to imagine that transportation costs alone will curb the effects of globalization. A factor that needs to be considered is that companies are continuously trying to make products cheaper to help turn a profit. They do this by automization and or cheap labour. Therefore, you need to consider the fact that machines are replacing people in the workforce. Ford makes more cars than ever yet they employ less. This trend helps Ford but in the end if no one has jobs who will buy the cars? Globalization and inflation will inevitable cause a world-wide crash. The only think economists can do is prolong the inevitable. Unfortunately I don't believe that the price of fuel will change anything.
Great point of view though.
Sufidreamer and Jyle, thanks for hubbing over. Yeah, I am kind of thinking out load on the hub, and trying to find the relevancy. It is funny how the high cost of gas was in the beginning of these down turn. I know all factors of the operation has to be accountanted for and figure in the bottom line of any business, and cheap labor is winning out.
In automation of Ford, they still employ the techs to take care of the robots, and the robots manufacturer still employ people to make. I know this is probably less than the auto-industry used to employ.
I live in one of the best meat producing areas of the world. I am amazed that I can walk in to Walmart and see meat shipped in from Argentina. And the locals are actually buying to over the local meat, at a price comparable to the local meat. This doesn't make sense to me. Less quality for the same cost, and it takes away from the local economy.
Keep on Hubbing!
Great article! I am a huge supporter for local goods and loved your insights into globalization. You did a great job of reminding us of Japan.
Shipping and the fuel costs are a part of the cost analysis: it has been the cost of human capital that has driven these "fictitious savings". These "savings" are fictitious in the United States have been passed into the hands of the bonuses. You hit it on the head with “cheap wage countries”.
This has been an issue in the United States with no real resolution. I am praying for some sort of equality to this disparity transpires soon. I love seeing China expand but I hate seeing American unemployed and massive, unrealistic bonuses handed to executives who ship jobs overseas.
Sadly I see no end to the cheap wage countries. This is the real issue plaguing the United States in the jobless recovery. The next round of "globalization" I pray will emerge with some equality. Economics is about supply and demand. The demand for labor will not go away. The supply of cheap labor remains in countries with high population. I hope you are right that we will run out of cheap wage countries. If not, I pray for wise politicians to provide some sort of equality, safe working conditions worldwide and fair pay for a day of hard work for all of our brothers and sisters worldwide.
Kelly
Thanks for hubbing over and commenting.
Keep on Hubbing!
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TheMindlessBrute says:
6 months ago
Eovery,
The F.D.A. recently opened a branch in China,our Treasury Secratary recently paid a visit to China,to try to convince the government to continue to invest in treasury bonds.Mr Geithner expressed this sentiment to a crowd of Chinese students that their almost 1 trillion dollars in American debt is a safe investment,they laughed.Globalisation and the insatiable greed of the mega corporations will eventually lead to the third world war,in my humble opinion.Here's a great piece of satire from Phillip the optomistic finger that you may enjoy and thumbs up on your analysis of the bigger picture.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHM7_oZJwoc