When Will the Recession End?
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Believe it or not what has become known as "The Great Recession" has been going on for a couple of years now, although economists refused to call it a recession for almost half of that time. So when will it end? No one knows for sure, but I have seen media reports that the recession is already over. I think that is wishful thinking. Anyone can see that the economy is still doing very poorly here in the United States. But how will we know when the recession is really over?
There are several things that economists look for when determining if a recession is over. Because they officially declare a recession after the economy has been doing poorly for two quarters, (they usually wait a quarter or two longer though) they tend to look for the economy to be improving for the same amount of time. Which is why I think the media has wishful thinking - the economy so far is not really improving yet. There needs to be moderate growth instead of a decline.
The economy needs to stabilize in order for the recession to officially be over. The stock market needs to recover a good bit of what it lost. There needs to be an increase in the gross domestic product, not a decrease. The housing market needs to recover as well. For awhile now we have seen the housing market remain stagnant. There has been way too many homes on the market and nothing seems to be selling. Home values have declined tremendously. Once these homes start selling again and the values stabilize, that is a good sign pointing to the end of a recession.
One of the factors of a recession that always grabs national headlines is the unemployment rate. It has been in the double digits now for awhile. Unfortunately the unemployment rate is one of the last areas to recover from a recession. So the economists tend to look for this rate to stabilize or maybe improve just a little bit.
From the very beginning of The Great Recession the economists have said that they expected the recovery to start towards the end of 2009. As much as I would like this to happen, to me it doesn't look like it will. There are still too many factors pointing towards a recession, not a recovery. But the fact is - it will happen eventually. We have always pulled out of recessions in the past and we will again.
When Will the Recession End? in the News
- The Queen upgrades staff Christmas gift in sign of recession recoveryDaily Telegraph1 second ago
Could it be a sign that the recession is coming to an end? The Queen, famed for being frugal, has upgraded the Christmas gift for her staff from last year's simple set of coasters to a crystal wine decanter.
- Is the Recession Over? The Debate ContinuesFox News7 hours ago
The original premise for classifying the end of a recession may not be correct.
- Secrets of smart holiday shoppersPurcell Register1 second ago
(ARA) - With the recession affecting just about everyone's wallets this year, traditional bargain hunters will likely have increased competition for the best deals. In fact, a recent survey found that 63 percent of shoppers plan to cut back on holiday spending this year.
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Comments
They can call it whatever they want, claim things are getting better -- but when I see almost on a daily basis middle income people in desperate situations, I find it difficult to think it will end soon. Yesterday it was someone unable to pay their utility bill which we now have to pay at the local payday loan places here because the utility company closed their doors to the public. Today, it was someone at the ATM in tears because she didn't have $20 in her account. This was a health care worker dressed for work. Breaks my heart.
Most economist are hoping for 2012, it's when Obama is said to release more of the Stimulus money. Good Hub!
Oh wow, 2012--just in time for the end of the world!
I think we shall all have to get used to hard times - or seriously change our ways for a long time to come. I'm opting for changing my ways.
Well i think it would not end soon. According to economic analyst America has to bear it with no certainty. Hope that we all can get out of it as soon as possible like that of developing countries like India , China.
Jennifer I wish I had the answers to those questions myself ! One thing I do know Is that we are all learning to Identify needs from wants . I think the press Is to scared to tell us how screwed we are as not to create a panic .
The recession will end when this Administration pulls its act together and does the right thing. Lowering taxes on individuals and businesses will get the economy going and allow businesses to start hiring again. Unfortunately, Obama and his cohorts believe in tax and spend economics. Great hub.
The recession may show signs of abating, but inflation will kick in at some point. The deficits rolled up by BHO and GHWB can't be ignored. Our government is not just flat broke, it's in hock.
I liken the current econmy to a house after a storm. The storm has passed and now we must repair what was damaged. In the normal recessions it has been minimal, and could be brought back quickly. The recent downturn was Katrina and there was damage done to the foundation, the fundamentals of the economy. When the financial institues make money available again to businesses aqnd homeowners, unemployment returns to less than 7 percent than we can declare victory and begin to bring it back to a sustainable growth.
JYOTI KOTHARI says:
2 months ago
Hi Jeniffer,
I don't think recession in the US will end soon. It may be theoretically as economists analyze data but it will continue for all practical purposes.
The US Government is trying to get more credits and not to improve production. Hence, recession will last for long.
Thumbs up!
Thanks,
Jyoti Kothari