Why Baron Davis Leaving Is Not So Bad- A Golden State Warriors Free Agency Preview
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Ok, so due to technical difficulties beyond my control, I have been unable to comment on the recent drama involving Baron Davis. But trust me, I have my opinions. To be blunt, I don't think it's nearly as bad as people are going to make it out to be. I don't think the Warriors will win as many games next year as they did this last year because of it, but I don't necessarily see it as a huge step back. And I'm not just being optimistic. I threatened to stop rooting for the Warriors if they drafted Patrick O'Bryant (I didn't stick with it), I thought the Gilbert Arenas debacle would set the franchise back a couple years, and I was even skeptical of the trade that brought Jax and Harrington to the Warriors. First, I'll explain why Baron leaving is not so bad, and then I'll summarize who we can go after now that we have more cap space than anyone in the league.
Why This Is Not So Bad
Baron put the Warriors in a catch-22. If they let him go, he would probably go elsewhere and perform well just to spite the Warriors, but if they sign him long-tern, who here really believed he wouldn't miss at least 30 games next year? It would have been nice to have him for another year, but he was going to be gone after that anyway. We were kind of starting a youth movement already, and losing Baron might have jumpstarted the process. Need some more reasons? Here you go:
- 1) Mike Dunleavy (aka not Don Nelson)
Much as Baron could not play with Mike Dunleavy Jr., I believe he will also struggle with Mike Sr. For those of you with a memory, remember this: not too long ago, the Hornets got rid of Baron and the move was seen as addition by subtraction. They traded him for an expiring contract (Dale Davis) and Speedy "why do people keep starting me?" Claxton. They took Chris Paul the next year and have gotten better every year since. Let that sink in- they got nothing but cap space for Baron (much as the Warriors are), and they got BETTER. In fact, the Warriors were not much better with him either. It was the Jackson-Harrington trade that got the Warriors in to the playoffs.
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Baron was once seen as a chemistry killer. He sat out most of the season with the Hornets and claimed he was injured. Then he got traded and was all of a sudden healthy. Experts ripped the Warriors for taking a chance on him and feared his large contract. So what changed? Well, Don Nelson came to town. Although Baron finished strong after getting traded, he was horrid in his first full season with the Warriors under Mike Montgomery. Every time the offense stalled, he would just jack up a 3, and he didn't make many. It is beyond me how Montgomery never benched him that year. Then, Nelson came along and changed everything. His no-defense, run-and-gun, 3-point-heavy style made Baron a star again. However, Nelson is probably gone after this year, so do we want Baron long term if he's going to play the same way he did before Nelson? Why do you think Baron initially wanted to play for the Knicks? Because D'Antoni was there, and that would allow him to play in same up-tempo offense. However, Mike Dunleavy is totally different. He will not allow Baron to put up the same numbers he did last year. Mark it down. Without Nelson, Baron will be lucky to put up 17, 7, and 3. Would you pay $65 mil for those numbers? Well, assuming you're not the Clippers or Isiah Thomas, probably not, especially considering Baron is on the downside of his career and is known to spend more time in the offseason on his movie company than on his game. By the way, his company is based out of LA. Think that'll be much of a distraction?
- 2) Monta Ellis
Again, let's go back a year and remember where the Warriors were during training camp. Everyone was raving over the Warriors and how great they were looking. Then, Ellis went down with some kind of neck injury. He got hit in practice and was lying on the ground for a while and was taken to the hospital. Because of it, he had to miss the rest of camp. Unfortunately for Nelson, he was planning to play Ellis at backup point guard, but this injury kept that from happening. Instead, Ellis would play shooting guard, and we all know what happened after that.
So here's the thing- Nelson was already planning to make Ellis his point guard of the future BEFORE this whole thing happened. Based on the way the Warriors have approached the draft and free agency, I'm guessing Ellis was going to see a lot more minutes at the point anyway. Now, he must just learn a little quicker. It might take a little time to understand the nuances, but Ellis seems to be more team-oriented than Davis and is better at getting to the basket and scoring. The one good thing I can say about Davis is that he was phenomenal at putting defenders in places where he could set up his teammates. Ellis has shown this ability, but not consistently. If he can get better at this, I see no reason why he can't be as good as Baron within a year or two. It's a risk, but at worst, Ellis is either an elite shooting guard or a scoring point guard who needs a sidekick that can set up teammates. What's that? The Warriors have Stephen Jackson too? I think you get the point. The Warriors will be ok.
- 3) Money
I don't mean this in a let's-save-money-by-putting-a-crappy-team-on-the-floor-to-make-money kind of way. I mean this more in the way that will allow the Warriors to keep Ellis and Biedrins. Every team could use either of these players, which is why so many teams are linked to them. With Baron out, the Warriors can comfortably resign both and have enough to invest in another player. Does it really make sense to pay Baron $15 mil a year when we could use that money to keep 2 young studs and add another solid one?
Free Agency/Possible Trades
Ok, so with Baron gone, who replaces him? As I said, Monta will probably take over at point guard, so the W's are not limited to only pursuing point guards. Here are the most likely targets in absolutely no particular order:
Elton Brand
Unless Brand cares more about an extra $15 million than about keeping his word and staying in LA, then Brand will not be a Warrior next year. It's kind of an odd fit anyway. He does bring a low post presence and sorely needed rebounding, but then what do we do with Harrington, Wright, and Randolph? We'd be a small ball team loaded with big men. Unless they have a Harrington for Hinrich trade in place (more on that soon), it doesn't make a whole lot of sense- well, definitely not $95 million worth of sense.
Josh Smith
I love what Smith brings to the table, but he doesn't seem like a team player. He pouts all over the court and will make fantasy owners everywhere happy. But he needs to keep his teammates happy. He seems destined for Philly anyway if he does leave Atlanta.
Andre Iguodala
Who wouldn't want Iggy? Theoretically, if Philly gets Brand, they might not have enough cap space to hold on to AI if someone makes a big offer. The Warriors can do this, but then the question becomes- do the Warriors want to invest $80+ mil in a player who got absolutely shut down in the playoffs last year? He'd be a great fit, but I just don't see it happening.
Corey Maggette
I love this idea! Signing Maggette would still stick it to the Clippers for cheating to get Baron (I don't care if you can't prove it- just do the math). Plus, they'd be getting him very cheap. Recent reports have him going to San Antonio or Boston for mid level exception. When was the last time a 22 point scorer in his prime went for the mid level exception? This guy should be getting at least $10 mil a year, and he's going for half that. The Warriors could swoop in and get him at about $8 mil a year. So, basically, they get a player about as good as Baron for half the money, and he's at the prime of his career instead of on the way down. How is this not the perfect fit? He can step in at shooting guard and let Monta slide over to the point. I remain confident that this is the Warriors' plan and that they are just keeping it a secret. Just look at this lineup:
PG: Monta Ellis, CJ Watson
SG: Corey Maggette, Marco Belinelli
SF: Stephen Jackson, Matt Barnes, Anthony Randolph
PF: Brandan Wright, Al Harrington, Richard Hendrix
C: Andris Biedrins, Kosta Perovic
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Even better, I'm not sure the Clippers are as good as they think they are without Maggette. All I'm saying is that Maggette impressed me a lot when I saw him and he knows how to get to the line. He could guard the bigger guards that Monta can't and take Baron's role as the guard that can post up other smaller players. I almost like this too much to believe that it could actually happen. We'll see...
Kirk Hinrich
Enter the backup plan. If the Warriors aren't sold on Monta at point guard, the rumors indicate that Hinrich is the best option. I think Raymond Felton will stay put and isn't worth what it'll take to get him and Jamal Tinsley is, well, Jamal Tinsley. With the Bulls taking Derrick Rose, Hinrich will either compete with Hughes, Sefolosha, and Gordon for PT, or he will be gone. However, the Warriors would have to trade for him. Harrington for Hinrich should do the trick. Harrington would give the Bulls the solid scoring power forward they've been looking for and if he doesn't work out, he only has 2 years left on his contract (one if he opts out).
Hinrich's value is down, so it might be the best time to get him. I like what I've seen of him, but he might not be the perfect fit for the system. Because they'd have to trade for him, they could still pursue a free agent, but it'd be pointless to do so unless they want to bench Monta or Jax. The trade makes sense, but I still think Monta is the guy at point guard. Just a hunch.
Summary
So, like I said, the Warriors have their options, and expect them to make multiple moves if that's what it takes. At worst, they can just save the cap room and work on developing Monta, Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli, and Randolph. Davis was an important part of the team, but there's a reason the Warriors didn't up their offer after the Clippers made their move. He's injury prone, and has only put together 2 good seasons over the last 5+ years. His value is up because of his playoff performance 2 years ago and because he played all 82 games last year. I can't see his value getting higher.
Here's another thing to consider: why didn't Baron do what Brand did? He knew the Warriors didn't want to pay that much for him, so why didn't he offer them a discount if he opted out and the Warriors used the money to bring in another free agent? You want to know why? Because Baron wants money. In addition, he's always loved LA. He went to UCLA, currently lives there, and even demanded on his draft night that any team that takes him trade him to LA (he didn't stick with it). Baron should just fess up and admit that he wanted money and that he wanted to go to LA. Enough with all this blaming the Warriors crap. I love Baron as a player, but he thanks the Warriors for giving him a chance when no one else would (true), and then screws them over like this. He will be missed, and I can understand why he did it, but don't jerk us around Baron. You did this for yourself because you don't know what it means to truly be a team player. This team will be worse without him right now, but they would've been much worse in the near future had they given Baron what he wanted. Good luck Warriors. Hopefully Mullin doesn't panic and overspend. I guess we'll find out soon...
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Comments
I think so too. That's exactly why throwing $90 mil at Brand doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Thanks for your feedback!
great post. I agree with it completely. I really hope Monta Ellis stays though!










02SmithA says:
17 months ago
Interesting post! Golden State has a great nucleus of young talent to build around. I expect Brandan Wright will help a lot!