Why Hillary Clinton Failed

A year ago, if you had told me that Hillary Clinton would not be the Democratic nominee for President in 2008, I would've laughed in your face. Would the Democrats really deny someone with the last name of Clinton their party's nomination when Bill Clinton is the only Democratic President since FDR to be re-elected and serve two complete terms in office? How could the candidate with Bill Clinton's and the DNC's huge financial and institutional backing not win the Democratic nomination? Throughout 2007, Sen. Hillary Clinton was the clear frontrunner and showed it not only in the polls, but in the debates as well. Hillary seemed well on her way to leave all her Democratic rivals in the dust and skate to the nomination. Today, Hillary Clinton's campaign is nearly $30 million in debt, having spent the most money of any candidate to lose a party nomination to a nearly 47 year old freshman Senator who just four years ago was unknown to virtually every American. How did the vaunted Hillary Clinton machine break down?

Where's the Change???

Hillary Clinton's first mistake was to run as the experienced candidate "ready to be President on day one." In my opinion, she was the more qualified candidate to be President between herself and Barack Obama. But she overplayed her experience to the point that made her seem old-hat to voters in the Democratic Party primary who were looking mostly for something fresh, a president who could bring change. Her experience had to include the 1990s days when Bill Clinton was President. It seemed like a hollow message to many Democratic voters who liked the 90s, but were looking for a 21st century change agent. Enter Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton could've run as a change agent, maybe not as effectively as Obama, but effectively enough to deny him the nomination. Hillary Clinton tried to run at first as the steady hand at the wheel of Washington and the country at large, instead of a populist fighter for change like she ran as in the later primaries where she found more success at the polls.

The Inevitable President Became the Incompetent Fundraiser

Hillary Clinton was seen as the inevitable Dem. nominee and President of the United States. And she played to that narrative big time, refusing to take clear stances on a variety of issues and claiming she would pursue particular policies "WHEN", not "IF" she became President both in media interviews and on the campaign trail. After all, she was inevitable, almost entitled to the Presidency. She raised lots of money for the primaries, but ignored the caucuses. Now, I agree with Sen. Clinton that primaries are a better determination of the voters' will than caucuses because caucuses disallow many low-income and older people from participating in the vote. BUT... the rules are the rules and Hillary's losses in every caucus is what contributed largely to Barack Obama's delegate lead over Clinton. In addition, she raised lots of money from big donors who maxed out early in their contributions by the time of Super Tuesday on Feb. 5th. Why? Hillary expected the race to over in her favor by Super Tuesday. Thus, she was underprepared and underfunded to take Barack Obama after Super Tuesday when Obama racked up 10 or so straight victories in a row, enough to give him the delegate lead and momentum that never went back to Hillary. Obama asked for small contributions from a broader base of donors that could and DID BIG TIME go bck to Obama and contribute to him. As a result, the Obama campaign outspent the Clinton campaign when it mattered the most.

The Race Factor: Bill Clinton's SC Comments

In state after state in the primary race, Barack Obama received 80-90% of the black vote, a margin big enough to allow Barack Obama to post big wins in the Southern (and delegate-rich states) and counteract his weakness among white (esp. lower-income white) voters. This wasn't always the case. Polls in South Carolina, the state where Obama beat Hillary two to one largely due to near unanimous backing from black voters there, in 2007 showed Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama among SC's black voters. Obama won big time among South Carolina blacks, after they saw Obama win the caucuses in nearly all-white Iowa and come within 3 points of beating Hillary in nearly all-white New Hampshire. But it was the states after South Carolina that really matter here. Bill Clinton compared Obama's victiory in SC to those of Jesse Jackson in SC during the 1980s, a slap in the face to Obama considering that at the time Obana was running not as a more divisive black figure like Jackson or Al Sharpton, but a post-racial candidate who made signifcant inroads among some white voters (esp. affluent and young white voters). It seemed to say that South Carolina Democrats (read: especially blacks) had picked a losing candidate like a Jesse Jackson. From there, the tide had turned against Hillary Clinton among black Democratic voters. If blacks split their vote between Obama and Clinton in the primaries after SC, Hillary would've nearly beaten Obama in Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, and seriously decreased his margins in Maryland and Virginia. She would've probably beaten him by nearly 20 points instead of 10 points in Ohio and Pennsylvania. She would've defeated him in Missouri. Just think how much the race would've shifted in Hillary Clinton's favor.

As Liberal As She Is, She Wasn't Liberal Enough

Hillary Clinton sometimes in the campaign ran as a centrist problem-solver and more centrist on foreign policy, signing on to the gas tax holiday and opposing meeting w/o preconditions dictators around the world. She refused to clearly apologize to the anti-war base of the Democratic Party for her vote in support of the invasion of Iraq. This led to rifts between herself and the far left base of the Democratic electorate. Many in the Far Left actually despise Bill Clinton because of his more centrist than liberal policies he took during his Presidency. They hated triangulation and saw his Presidency as a sell out to moderates and conservatives. The Left wanted their candidate who was unabashedly anti-war (he gave a speech before the war opposing it) and willing to meet without preconditions with Ahmedinijad, Castro, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Kim-Jon-Il. Enter Barack Obama.