Why Roger Federer will win Wimbledon in 2009

Roger Federer's so called 'decline' of form in recent months (arguably years) is well documented amongst professional journalists, bloggers and forum trolls. Federer, for so many years, has dominated men's tennis; a poor run of results or the occasional outburst now become sensational news and guarantee sporting headlines.

During one of Federer's recent performances at the Sony Ericsson Masters in Miami, he netted an easy short forehand and responded by thrasing his racket into the ground. It, of course, disintegrated immediately. It was somewhat a moment to ponder seeing him replace the item - momentarily transformed from a perfectly symmetrical instrument of sport into a disfigured and almost unrecognisable object. Some would say his career has suffered similarly of late.

But I have a feeling all is not as black and white as it appears. Many thought Federer should be stripped of the Sportmanship award his was presented with days previously. Others said Federer had dropped in their respective estimations to his lowest point. Maybe an irrecoverable state of affairs.

There is, additionally, his impending fatherhood and recent marriage to long time girlfriend Mirka Vavrinec. Tennis history is littered with rapid declining careers after such life changing events - will this year be the year Federer drops dramatically from the heights of the top 2?

I think not, in fact, I think Federer has the skill and ability to continue to achieve great things. I'd go as far as to say he'll be lifting the Wimbledon crown on Sunday, 5th July 2009. I'd even say that I don't think Rafael Nadal will be nearby when the camera flashes illuminate Centre Court the fading afternoon.

I base this on an expected turnaround, and also the expectation that Nadal may suffer some surprising defeats on his way to Wimbledon. The clay court season is upon us again - Nadal's so-called strong surface. Could we argue that his quest for perfection on other surfaces might signal a decline on clay? Probably not, but for all the players he sweeps aside on the tour, there are players determined to increase their level when it comes to the clay court season. I'm not sure Nadal will be in the final in France and I don't think he'll be in the final at Wimbledon.

I'm not anticipating that Nadal has a great clay court season at all. There have already been some shock defeats on the hard courts, and I think Nadal was surprised at 'how easy' it was to defeat Andy Murray in Indian Wells. Maybe for the first time, Djokovic, Murray and Federer are all close to snatching the title and the fifth consecutive win. They used to say Nadal had the fitness to run all day on clay, but nowadays you can say the same for Murray. There will undoubtedly be more pressure this year in Paris, regardless of what the players say in pre-match interviews.

So I think a shock for Nadal in the clay court season would sow enough doubt for Wimbledon. Nobody expects Nadal to lose on clay, but nobody really expects him to dominate on grass. So a loss on clay would perhaps have great effect.

A surprise loss on clay, plus the pressure of more big names at Wimbledon, might cause Nadal some trouble. Of course, the same big names could trouble Federer, and we'll await the draw to see who might stand in his path. Wimbledon has a certain character though, Centre Court an intimate arena and the heightened atmosphere of a hesitant and close audience make it a tricky place to deliver your craft to the best of your ability. I'm reminded of Lleyton Hewitt winning the final against David Nalbandian. A young looking Nalbandian capitulated in the final after six previous impressive wins. His first time on Centre, he barely left the starting blocks.

Federer though, as we know, is comfortable there, as was Pete Sampras. Federer has only recently broken sweat with Nadal at the other end of the court - until the Spaniard's arrival in the final, Federer easily swept aside the likes of Roddick and Philippoussis with breathtaking strokes and penetrating serves. We've only sensed Federer really stretched in the last three years in the Wimbledon final, culminating of course in Nadal's win last year what many deem is the greatest tennis match in history.

So I see Federer in the final without too much trouble; although I think he fears Murray earlier in the draw more than Nadal in the final. Do we think Federer hopes Murray soon replaces Djokovic as number #3 to dislodge their meeting before the final?