Why interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve might not stop the housing crash
68Fed's strong medicine may have limited effect on the toxic mortgage infection
The Federal Reserve Bank can cut interest rates all they want to prop up the banking system, but it's going to be of limited utility to the real estate market and general economy because banks are so scared they won't even lend to each other. Like it or not, credit is the oil of the economy and this engine has seized with a blown piston or two! If banks aren't lending to each other, they're going to be reluctant to lend to consumers and businesses. Banks are trying to shore up reserves and are hesitant to make loans for assets (i.e. homes) which are plunging in value every day. When the banks do lend money on houses, the interest rate is well above the 10-year treasury rate. According to the Bloomberg article (link below) "over the past 10 years, the average spread between 10-year U.S. Treasuries and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages has been 1.75 percent. Last week, it 2.83 percent." The articles in the links below provide further explanation as to why the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may not resuscitate a crashed housing market and why mortgage rates are going up despite the interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
If the Fed and the Treasury keep printing money the U.S. dollar may plunge even further in value and may collapse. See video below - very interesting. The video contains opinions from some well known investors and bankers on the U.S. dollar and their comments as to why our borrow and spend economy is completely unsustainable.
The Inevitable Collapse of the U.S. Dollar
Article on mortgage rate spread
- Why housing will get worse (Article June 12, 2008)
CNN Money article: Hard hit cities like Sacramento, Phoenix and Las Vegas are set for more steep losses. Some real estate experts are bracing for price drops of as much as 50%. - Nobel Winner Stiglitz: US Facing Long Recession
Nobel prize winning economist now says this recession may "echo the 1930's" - AP Poll: Morgtage Payments Worry Many
"One in seven mortgage holders worry they may soon fail to make their monthly payments and even more fret that their home's value is shrinking, according to a poll showing widespread stress from the nation's housing crisis." - The big risk in the foreclosure fix
"FHA, a formerly obscure federal agency, is now at center of many plans to fix the housing market. But it may not be up to the task - and that could cost taxpayers a bundle." - New mortgage applications fall 29%
CNN Article (04/02/08): Mortgage Bankers Association's survey reveals that application volume declined in latest week as rates for fixed-rate loans increased. - Mortgage rates up due to credit crunch
This article from Bloomberg business news describes why the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have not caused a commensurate decrease in mortgage rates. In fact, mortgage rates are increasing. - The next shoe to drop in housing
Article from CNN describes how big losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making it more difficult and more expensive to obtain home loans even for borrowers with good credit. - Washington Post Article: A 1930s Loan Rescue Lesson
Article describing the government housing rescue plan (HOLC) of the 1930s. - Bear Stearns Crisis Averted - But For How Long?
Interesting analysis at HousingWire.com. - Why Housing Will Continue to Deflate
"I continue to believe that we are going to see further downward pressure on home prices -- regardless of what the Congress believes or intends or manipulates....."
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