• Gold Silver and the Specter of Economic Depression
  My latest Hubpage about why we may be headed for an economic depression, the likes of which our generation has never seen.

Nouriel Roubini Predicts Severe Recession

• Nouriel Roubini Predicts Severe Recession
  Nouriel Roubini of the NYU Stern School of Business predicts a severe 24-month long recession which he says started at the beginning of 2008 and will end in late 2009.

Recession Related Information Links

• Money Supply Contraction Points to Severe Economic Recession
  The US M3 money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history and points to a severe economic slowdown in coming months according to Lombard Street Research.
• Commercial Bankruptcies Soar, Reflecting Widening Economic Slump
  "Driven by a sour economy and skittish consumers, U.S. business bankruptcies saw their sharpest quarterly rise in two years, jumping 17 percent in the second quarter of 2008, according to an analysis by McClatchy."
• World Wipe Out Ahead?
  Why world stock markets may see more turmoil ahead.
• An Explanation of the Mortgage/Credit Crunch
  Interesting paper from a Princeton economist on how the credit and financial system got so torqued.
• Crashes, Banks and Wallops - A Look Back at Past Financial Disasters
  Detailed article from Financial Times of London that discusses past financial downturns and how they relate to present day conditions and monetary policy and gov't action. Edited version of lecture at Oxford Univ. by Richard Lambert.
• Economist Paul Krugman on the Likely L-Shaped Recession
  Economist Paul Krugman gives his opinion on why this recession will be a longer protracted one.
• Will the government cut the life-line after IndyMac, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae?
  Government pledges support for Fannie, Freddie; but banks, brokerages might be left to founder. So what happens after that? Looks like we're really going to see things get ugly.
• IndyMac Shut Down!
  Office of Thrift Supervision steps in and closes IndyMac Bank; FDIC takes over operations. "This institution failed today due to a liquidity crisis," OTS Director John Reich said.
• If You Think It's Bad Now, Just Wait....
  Article from the UK Guardian on why "the credit crunch is entering an even darker phase" on both sides of the Atlantic.
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be Insolvent
  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the biggest providers of financing for U.S. home loans, tumbled for a third day as concern escalated that the government may be forced to start a rescue of the companies.
• IndyMac Bancorp Crash: Analyst sets $0 target for stock
  Uh, ok....but isn't the analyst a bit late on this one? Looks like all the rescue money still can't prop up the banks. Seriously, a $0 price target...never saw this before!
• 'Financial catastrophe looms': analyst
  The Bank for International Settlements says global markets may still be set for severe economic downturn. Satyajit Das, respected risk analyst: "It's an extraordinary statement of just how close the world economy is to a total financial meltdown.
• Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae Plunge on Capital Concerns
  Bloomberg Article: Why Freddie and Fannie may need to raise $75 BILLION in capital to stay afloat. This keeps getting worse by the quarter!
• Crisis wipes $1 trillion from financial stocks
  AP Article July 7, 2008: Concerns about credit, housing wipe $1.3 trillion from S&P 500's financial companies in 2008
• INDY MAC SUSPENDS LENDING
  Monday July 7, 7:20 pm ET AP News Article: IndyMac closes forward mortgage business, plans to cut 3,800 of its 7,200 employees.
• A former investment banker who has fallen on hard times hits the pavement in search of a new job.
  You know it's rough when an MIT educated investment banker literally has to hand out resumes on the street and wear a sign to get a job in NYC.
• Great Britain: Slide in house prices is the worst since the Great Depression
  "Britain is now in the midst of the worst housing slide since the Great Depression, economists declared....." Looks like the Brits are having their own housing mess.
• Why Banks Problems Will Only Get Worse
  Video from Tech Ticker shows 5 Top Problem Areas facing banks: * Credit card debt * Home equity loans * Commercial real estate loans * Commercial and development loans * Derivatives generally ($182 trillion notional value
• CNN Video: A former investment banker who has fallen on hard times
  You know it's rough when an MIT educated investment banker literally has to hand out resumes on the street and wear a sign to get a job in NYC.
• Foreclosures to rise whoever wins White House
  July 5, 2008: AP News article says that foreclosures will rise in 2009 and perhaps into 2010 regardless of who becomes president.
• June 2008 Auto Sales Plunge
  Article describing one of the worst months in the automotive industry.
• Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles
  "We're in a nasty environment," said Tim Bond, the bank's chief equity strategist. "There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets...."
• Prediction from RBS of a worldwide economic crash (06/19/08)
  Royal Bank of Scotland has warned clients of a coming stock market and credit crash over the next 3 months. This unusually dire prediction comes from RBS, not some wacko!!! A must read.
• Brokers threatened by run on shadow bank system
  "Unless radical changes are made to bring this shadow network under an updated regulatory umbrella, the current crisis may be just a gust compared to the storm that would follow a collapse of the global financial system, experts warn."
• Why housing may drop 50% in some areas
  Article from CNN Money, June 12, 2008: Hard hit cities like Sacramento, Phoenix and Las Vegas are set for more steep losses. Some real estate experts are bracing for price drops of as much as 50%.
• U.S. Food Stamp Increases Sharply
  An additional 1.5 million Americans claimed food stamp benefits over the last year, raising the total number on food stamp assistance to nearly 28 million.
• Slump in Employment
  June 2008 article on the deteriorating employment situation in the U.S.
• Nobel Winner Stiglitz: US Facing Long Recession
  Looks like this recession will be severe according to a Nobel Prize winning economist.
• Commercial Real Estate Vacancies Expected to Soar
  Vacancy rate expected to jump from 13.6% to 18% by end of 2009
• Is the LIBOR interest rate being manipulated?
  Wall St. Journal article 04/16/08 indicates "some banks don't want to report the high rates they're paying for short-term loans because they don't want to tip off the market that they're desperate for cash." The implications are serious.
• BBA to start Libor review earlier as rate spikes
  The banking group that oversees one of the world's most important interest-rate gauges said on Thursday that it's brought forward a review of how the measure is calculated amid speculation some banks have been trying to manipulate it.
• Economy sends signals of more weakness to come
  AP Article: Jobless claims, leading indicators and Philly Fed buttress view that economy is softening
• GE Profit Unexpectedly Plunges
  GE profit plunges far below analyst expectations.
• IMF says U.S. Headed for Recession
  The U.S. economy is headed for recession this year and there is a 25 percent chance world growth will drop to 3.0 percent or less, a level that would be considered recessionary, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.
• Some Fed Members Concerned about a Severe and Protracted Downturn
  "The Federal Open Market Committee released minutes from its March 18 meeting in which members expressed concern that "falling house prices and stresses in financial markets could lead to a more severe and protracted downturn in activity...."
• Pending Home Sales Hit Low in February 2008
  New Low for Pending Home Sales in February Is Latest Sign of a Still-Tumbling Housing Market
• Banks Woes may Choke off Economic Growth
  ``This is a nightmare for the country,'' said William Isaac, who was chairman of the FDIC from 1981 to 1985. Banks will slow down their growth and stop lending, and what should be a mild recession becomes a becomes a much more serious one.
• IMF Says Financial, Economic Losses May Swell to $945 Billion
  ``Authorities may wish to prepare contingency plans for dealing with large stocks of impaired assets if writedowns lead to disruptive dynamics and significant negative effects on the real economy,'' the report said.
• Overdue Consumer Debts Highest Since 1992, ABA Says
  Bloomberg article 04/03/08
• ABC News Article: Are We Headed Into A Depression?
  Automatic Economic Recovery Isn't Certain, Says Economist Robert Parks (previously a chief economist at 3 Wall St. firms) who predicts a greater than 60% chance of the U.S. entering a depression.
• Some Scary Parallels to 1920s, and Some Differences
  Economist Robert Kuttner's testimony to Committee on Financial Services on Oct. 2, 2007 indicates some striking parallels to the 1920s. Think that fancy securitized debt is a new concept? Think again. They did it in th 1920s.
• IMF says Worst Financial Crisis Since Great Depression
  IMF Cuts Global Forecast on Worst Crisis Since 1930s
• The Great Depression: The sequel
  Is it coming to a soup kitchen near you? Here's how we'll know if the current recession is turning into something much worse. By Andrew Leonard
• Stanford Professor Says that Stagflation may be Imminent
  Interest rate cuts and the falling dollar point towards a repeat of 1970's style stagflation.
• Economist Paul Krugman on Just How Bad This Mortgage Crisis Will Get
  Interview with the economist who indicates that we're in for a nasty recession that will be worse than 1990 and 2000 (dot com bust) combined.
• Closer to a Derivatives Meltdown
  Is there a collapse in derivatives in the offing?
• Expert: U.S. has Entered A Severe Recession
  Former National Bureau of Economic Research President Martin Feldstein says that we're in for a whopper of a recession.
• Is a Bust in Canadian Real Estate Next?
  Don't count on Canadians buying up American homes to save the U.S. real estate market, as they may be on the verge of their own housing bust.
• Fed adds another $100 Billion to Banking System
  The Fed is injecting even more liquidity into the banking system (Mar. 2008) but how long can it continue to do so?
• Fed's rescue halted a derivatives Chernobyl
  Article from the Telegraph mentions how Bear Stearns has $13.4 TRILLION in derivative positions based on a scant $80 Billion in real assets. It also mentions JP Morgan has $77 TRILLION of derivative contracts! House of cards?
• European Central Bank not in step with the Federal Reserve
  Why this 'currency war' could contribute to a sever recession.
• Is a Wave of Bank Failures coming?
  Why the Federal Reserve may not be able to prevent a collapse in the banking system.
• A Must See Documentary on the Mortgage Meltdown!
  This excellent video on the U.S. mortgage meltdown and housing market bust provides outstanding information about how and why this situation has arisen. It's a view of the U.S. housing situation from an Australia and is a must see!
• Is it Time to Buy a Little Gold and Silver?
  Why it might not be a bad idea to buy a little gold and silver since the dollar may vaporize.
• Wall St. Journal: Economists in Survey Say Recession Here
  Article from the Wall St. Journal that has an economic expert survey indicating that the U.S. has entered a recession
• California Housing Crash
  This article from AP News describes the steep decline in California housing prices.
• Dr. Housing Bubble Lessons from the Great Depression
  There are many comparisons between the 2008 recession that is just starting and the Great Depression of the 1930s.
• Why this is just the start of the mortgage crisis
  
• What brough Bear Sterns down?
  Link to Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis blog that details why Bear Stearns failed.
• Commercial Real Estate Vacancies Rise
  
• Slump in Employment
  June 2008 article on the deteriorating employment situation in the U.S.
• Why housing may drop 50% in some areas
  Article from CNN Money, June 12, 2008: Hard hit cities like Sacramento, Phoenix and Las Vegas are set for more steep losses. Some real estate experts are bracing for price drops of as much as 50%.
• Brokers threatened by run on shadow bank system
  "Unless radical changes are made to bring this shadow network under an updated regulatory umbrella, the current crisis may be just a gust compared to the storm that would follow a collapse of the global financial system, experts warn."
• June 2008 Auto Sales Plunge
  Article describing one of the worst months in the automotive industry.
• Foreclosures to rise whoever wins White House
  July 5, 2008: AP News article says that foreclosures will rise in 2009 and perhaps into 2010 regardless of who becomes president.
• Wall St. Journal: The Credit Crisis Is Going to Get Worse
  "We are in a credit crisis the likes of which I've never seen in my lifetime," Theodore Forstmann warns. He adds: "The credit problems in this country are considerably worse than people have said or know.
• IndyMac Shut Down!
  Office of Thrift Supervision steps in and closes IndyMac Bank; FDIC takes over operations. "This institution failed today due to a liquidity crisis," OTS Director John Reich said.
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be Insolvent
  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the biggest providers of financing for U.S. home loans, tumbled for a third day as concern escalated that the government may be forced to start a rescue of the companies.
• IndyMac Shut Down!
  Office of Thrift Supervision steps in and closes IndyMac Bank; FDIC takes over operations. "This institution failed today due to a liquidity crisis," OTS Director John Reich said.