With Romney Out Ron Paul Advances to Third Place

The Super Tuesday Primary Election (February 5, 2008) resulted in Governor Romney deciding to withdraw from the race for the Republican Party's nomination, leaving Senator McCain, the acknowledged leader of the pack but still short, in terms of delegates, of victory, Governor Huckabee and Congressman Paul to slug it out.

Two days after the election, on February 7^th, at the annual CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference which is an annual event sponsored by the American Conservative Union) Governor Romney announced the suspension of his campaign, Governor Huckabee announced that his campaign will continue, Senator McCain made a strong and creditable attempt to woo conservative support and Congressman Paul gave a rousing speech on the need to return to the limited government outlined in the U.S. Constitution and Bill of Rights.

As I have pointed out in previous Hubs about Congressman Ron Paul, his chances of winning the nomination, let alone the election, are slim to none. However, an individual does not have to win an election in order to have his or her ideas prevail. Thanks to the Internet and competition brought about by the proliferation of cable and satellite TV channels, Congressman Paul has been able to gain access to national media and present his ideas to the American people.

Granted, Congressman Paul's message has not caught fire with the average voter. However, as he pointed out in his speech at CPAC, he has not only drawn large crowds at colleges and universities where he has concentrated much of his campaigning, but his message, especially on economic issues like sound money, abolishing the Federal Reserve, freeing people from the Social Security and Medicare taxes, and limiting the size of the Federal Government, has drawn enthusiastic response from the college youth. The Economist magazine observed during a British election a number of years ago, that the dieing off of older voters and the addition of younger first time voters during each 5 year British election cycle (in Britain Parliamentary elections must be called at least once every 5 years which is close to the 4 year American presidential election cycle) represents a turnover in the electorate of about 20%. As the older generation whose political philosophies were formed under the statist politics of the New Deal and the influence of the old leftist media monopoly, dies off they are being replaced by a new generation who have grown up under the newer freedom enhancing policies emanating from the Reagan era and the competition of ideas that, thanks to the growth of talk radio, cable and satellite TV, and the Internet all of which have allowed and encouraged the free flow of ideas and political debate in our nation. These are the voters and opinion makers of tomorrow and Congressman Paul winning them over with his ideas.

Unlike the other Republican candidates, who have tended to stay within the boundaries of the new conservative center and have basically taken positions that have not differed that much from each other, Congressman Paul has taken conservative positions that are genuinely new and often are a somewhat radical departure from the political status quo. Like the old saying that one can get used to hanging if they do it long enough, people are often reluctant to accept major changes even if they are for the better. However, given time to contemplate and digest new ideas, people will, in time, embrace new ideas that they feel will better their lives and that is what Congressman Paul's actions are doing. I still remember teachers and relatives in my youth explaining that things like the income tax, Social Security and the host of Federal Government agencies were as much an integral and permanent part of our system of government as the Constitution itself and were thus unchangeable. I was a senior in high school when Senator Barry Goldwater, during his campaign for President against then President Lyndon Johnson, made the comment that Social Security should be made voluntary. My friends and I, who were Goldwater supporters, thought this was going too far despite the fact that he wasn't going to abolish it, just give people a choice. It was too big a change all at once and we needed time to come to terms with this rather radical departure from the status quo. Even our civics teacher, who never pushed his political views in class and always encouraged us to express our opinions, came down hard on the lone girl in class who raised her hand in favor of Senator Goldwater's position. The teacher's reaction was similar to that of a geography teacher who encounters a student who truly believes that the earth is flat. That statement was a major factor in Senator Goldwater's defeat. But, in the years Senator Goldwater's loss in the 1964 election, people have had time to give this more thought and enough have come to like the idea of drastically modifying or abolishing Social Security that today's candidates can get away with calling for the phased elimination of the program - as all of the Republican candidates, except for Senator McCain, did during one of the debates on Fox News - and find favor with many voters for that position.

In a February 6, 2008 press release from the Ron Paul campaign it was noted that the Paul campaign had picked up at least 24 delegates on Super Tuesday bringing their total to date to 42. The campaign picked up 3 delegates in the Super Tuesday caucus in Louisiana despite attempts by the party leadership to block the election of delegates committed to Congressman Paul. These irregularities are being challenged and the Paul campaign may end up with most of Louisiana's delegates if they win the challenge. In the Super Tuesday West Virginia caucus, the Paul campaign struck a deal with the Huckabee campaign whereby a large bloc of Paul supporters cast their votes for Huckabee, thereby giving Huckabee his narrow victory in that state, in exchange for the Huckabee giving three delegates to the Paul campaign. With Huckabee electing to remain in the campaign and Romney suspending his campaign rather than simply canceling it and releasing the delegates he has won to date, there is a very real possibility that Senator McCain could come to the convention a few delegates short of the number needed for the nomination and that Congressman Paul could provide the needed delegate votes in exchange for some policy promises by Senator McCain.

Congressman Paul has other potential leverage as well. Despite the fact that he bolted the Republican party and ran as the Libertarian candidate for President in 1988, coming in third behind then Vice President George H.W. Bush (father of the current President George Bush) and Governor Michael Dukakis, Congressman Paul has stated that he will not run as a third party candidate. However, he has also continually refused to promise to support the Republican candidate in the general election. The Libertarian party is on the ballot in all 50 states and there are some other conservative parties on the ballot in various states. While Paul's supporters are not numerous enough to win the nomination or election for him, if they defect and choose to either sit out or cast their votes for minor party candidates, that loss of their votes could cost the Republican candidate the election especially if it is close as the last two presidential elections have been. Again, Congressman Paul could force Senator McCain to make concessions on policy in exchange for participating in the general election campaign and motivating his followers to vote Republican.

Congressman Paul is still raising money and collecting delegates. Since his goal is education of the electorate and spreading the message of individual freedom, there is no need for him to stop until the Republican convention. Ideas have consequences and if anyone doubts the power of an idea they need look no further than the late Austrian Economist Friedrich Hayek (1899 - 1992) and his book entitled The Road to Serfdom. First published in 1944, the book offered a ray of hope to a world suffering under the crushing weight of communism, socialism and related ideologies. In addition to it being a major factor in Hayek's winning of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1974, the book was also picked up and read by a young student, by the name of Margaret Hilda Roberts, who was studying chemistry at Oxford University in the late 1940s. Margaret Roberts was deeply influenced by the book and after successfully leading the Conservative Party to victory in 1979, Margaret Roberts (by then known as Margaret Thatcher having married Denis Thatcher in 1951) became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and, with Frederich Hayek as one of her advisors, proceeded to transform British politics and inspire people and their leaders throughout the world. This one book, written and published by a lone economist espousing views that were contrary to the dominant political and intellectual thought of the day, ended up changing the course of history.