Yahoo to Buy Facebook - Maybe

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By Webber


Yahoo, Google, MSN

Everyone needs to grow and it's really hard to move the needle for large companies. Further more, the law of big numbers kicks in and it will be hard for Facebook to continue its growth. Facebook must sell before the growth curve flattens. The WSJ article suggests this is happening and that Yahoo lowered it offer price because of it. Just a few days ago, Yahoo warned about a slowing online advertising business. This won't help Facebook's price.

Myspace people are unhappy about the price paid by Fox. Everyone knows this. They think they could have gotten more. A lot more. This is bad for Facebook because it plays on the ego of a 22 year old CEO or at least a perceived ego. Google didn't sell out, Microsoft didn't sell out, and Myspace did and everyone is pissed that they only got $500 Million. The truth is most acquisitions are busts. The corp dev people at large companies are mainly relegated to small deals in the few millions. Very few large deals are done. Fox, at the time paid too much. Now it looks like a great deal and they should get a ton of credit for stepping up and making a big play. Yahoo, Google, Microsoft weren't willing to play ball.

It all comes down to search. Myspace was guarranteed $900 Million by Google and MSN has poneyed up $200 Million over three years to Facebook. If search is good and convient from where people spend a lot of time, then they will use it. This is a huge money maker. In this sense social networks have become the new start (Home Page). Everyone wants to be your homepage, because they get a chance to catch you before you see anything else. Now, they want to funnel you in to their advertising platforms from where you spend all your time online. Or at least complement the start strategy with it (it's still good).

Bottom line is Facebook should sell soon. Get a little more than Myspace and be done. If $800 Million is on the table. Take it quick.

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