Just had a look at the songs the latest group of wannabes will be torturing tonight and some of the choices look dodgy.

Olly Murs – Twist and Shout. Danyl Johnson – Purple Rain. Jamie Archer – Crying.

John and Edward – Ghostbusters. Lloyd Daniels - Stand by Me/Beautiful Girls
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Stacey Soloman – Son of a Preacher Man. Lucie - This is Me. Joe McElderry – Circle Of Life.

Olly looks safe with Twist and Shout, as does Danyl with Purple Rain and Jamie with the emotional, Crying. So we can expect to see Simon have all 3 of his acts back next week.

Although I think both remaining girls and likeable Joe all have risky song choices, I think they will return. However, Luice is singing a little known song from Disney's Camp Rock and she will do it well, but it is always advisable to perform songs that the wider audience know well.

The remaining pair are in trouble. I expect both acts will pull out the stops visually to deflect from their vocal shortcomings and this could be the week either the twins or Lloyd bite the dust. Let's hope so. Back tomorrow with the betting opportunities.. Umtil then, KWKW.

Lloyd's fans seem to have deserted him if the markets are a good guide (and they usually are), as he is the favourite to be eliminated this week. He is priced generally at 8/11 to go and I cannot argue a case to oppose this. He performed like a novice last night (he is a novice actually) and seemed to be preoccupied with melding his 2 songs into one, rather than pinging his performance into brilliance. He started off very poorly on the classic Stand by Me, making it sound almost mediocre, then segued into Sean Kingston's Beautiful Girls and not doing that particlulary well either, before seguing back into Stand By Me and at least finishing with a bit of a flourish.

One nice touch was his attention to his mentor, Cheryl, and taking her hand during the song as he sang. It worked well, but will it be enough to save him? Probably not.

Lucie Jones sang an unknown song fairly well, but I still feel she could be in trouble. It was at best a modest performance and I am not sure she has a huge following. She got positve judges comments, which might make her supporters feel there is no need to make that call. I still have a feeling she could be in the bottom and 2 and will punt accordingly. A 1 pt bet at 5/1 is advised.

However, unless Lloyd's legion of teenage fans ring his number (no others will), then he is saying farewell this evening, but his price is not tempting. For a thorough anyalsis of this event and expert betting advice, try this site - it is incomparable. http://nuttysportsbetting.blogspot.com/

Until next time, KWKW.

Lloyd's fans found their phones and he avoided the dreaded sing off. However, surely the biggest story it the utter hypocracy of Simon Cowell. He did not want even to put the Twins through to Boot Camp. Told Louis he was ridiculous for having them in his live show team and has slated them every week as useless, horrors and an abomination to the world of song.

Yet, as he did last week, in ensuring the elimination of a very good singer, Rachel Adedeji, in preference to the cute but limited Lloyd, he dumped the vocally excellent Lucie Jones and kept the Twins in the competition! He said that Lucie could not win and had a "ceiling" (a point at which she could not go beyond). Surely he did not mean that theTwins could win and have no "ceiling"!?!

It just shows what a two faced Im-always-right low life he is. Yes, he has made a fortune from the pop world and has grafted hard. But he has been in the right place at the right time with key personnel with ideas and he has exploited them to best advantage. Others could do just as well and be more honest.

It is this "I'll let the audience decide" deception (I am convinced he knows the public vote at this stage), that will be his undoing. I am sure that many voters will be disgusted at his bare faced sense of omnipotence and his singers may well face a backlash, by being deserted and finding themselves in the bottom two (mind you, he may then simply change the rules!). Yes, all three are very good singers, but so were Rachel and Lucie and he cold bloodedly cut them loose at the expense of less able performers.

We won our 5/1bet, which means we are 3 from 3 on this competition. I now fear that the Cowell backlash may affect the voting, but we may be able to use that to our advantage. Interesting to see how it is reported in the press. I'll keep you posted. Until then, KWKW

According to newspaper reports a mere £60 has been taken by major high street bookmaking firm, Ladbrokes, on John and Edward to be eliminated this week. This is normally a great deal more, so does this mean that punters are convinced that they will be safe? Do they now expect voters to pick up the phone and support the twins, just to spite Simon Cowell? Well, over 4,000 complaints were made by the British public following Cowell's decision to vote for the twins and take the decison back to the public televote. Will he now be hoist by his own petard?

As I told you, the regulatory body for broadcasting in the UK, Ofcom, have no action to take. They received around 150 complaints, but no rules have been transgressed. I was once a director of this organisation in it's transition from the old ITC (Independent Television Commission), so was well aware that no infringements had been made.

Nonetheless, this all shows the passion the general public feels on this matter, but (AND IT IS A REALLY BIG BUT) will this "anger" translate into thousands picking up their phones and voting to keep John and Edward in the competition. You know what, I think it may well do. So, I am now recommending to lay the twins at 6/5 with Betfred.

We now have 2 bets on the go, Danyl to be in the bottom two at 9/2 and a lay on the twins at 6/5 to avoid elimination.

Cowell is beginning to show the strain. As well as alienating one of his troop, Jamie Archie, by ridiculing his song choices and making him change at the last minute, he has now scrapped the "dancing" theme to this weekend's show, in favour of everyone performing Queen songs. Has he done this to favour his acts and put some others into difficult territory? He understands the comfort zone of all the remaining acts and will do what he needs to try and ensure an advantage for his trio.

Which is a real pity, as he has no need to do so. His trio are really good singers and performers and Cowell's antics only go to show him up in a bad light. Which explains why he is more popular on the American Idol show. There, he has no acts to mentor and can be dispassionate about every single performance. His caustic comments are therefore viewed as the genuine convictions of an experienced music producer. Whereas here now in the UK, he is seen as an arch manipulator, someone who will criticise excessively and punitively and try every trick in the book to secure the continuation of his artistes in the show.

Well, only the viewers can do something about that - and we may now see some real "power to the people", as they elect to shun his boys and keep the others safe from harms way. I'll keep you posted. Until then, KWKW.  

X Factor quandry

It is a tough one this week and I have to admit that my timideness has lost us a guaranteed profit position. As I said earlier, I looked long and hard at the 16/1 available for the Jamie/Danyl combination to be this week's bottom two acts. They now trade at 9/1, so we could have laid off there and made a tidy profit.

I advised backing Danyl at 9/2 to be bottom two and he is now 7/2, but am still worried by how secure Lloyd and Jamie are in the betting as the expected bottom two. For me, Lloyd had another weak vocal performance, which was not concealed by the fact that he had a plethora of scantily clad lovelies gyrating around him and to be honest, leaving him a little open mouthed! (Or was that just me?)

Stacey received loads of plaudits from the judges, but I did not recognise the song and I say this again - if an artisit chooses a lesser known song, then the general public don't relate to it, switch off a bit and a lot of potential votes are sacrificed. This made me seek out the Lloyd/Stacey bottom two combo price, which is a tempting 40/1.

The twins have won round quite a few neutrals, by their sheer determination to get on with it, despite the audience boos, the lascerating judges criticisms and Louis Walsh's repetitive headache syndrome mantra "they're entertaining!" . They remain 3rd favourites to be eliminated and if in the boittom two, then I think singing logic will prevail and they will go. However, it is now my view that they will avoid the bottom two this week. If so, who will be there and who will leave?

I think Lloyd will be bottom two and will be on his way. So let's add two more bets to our portfolio for this week. Back Lloyd at 7/5 to be eliminated with Befair and lay Jamie Archie at 2/1 with Skybet. Take the profit from the Danyl bet by now laying him at 7/2.

It is a tricky week as we now reduce the acts to the top six, but with the "wild card" twins still around, there should continue to be a bit of value to find. Once they go, the song choices will be critical, as well as faultless performances. That said, it is now worth having a monster 10 point punt on Olly Murs to succeed at a general 9/4. He is improving, his confidence is growing and he retains a sensible, likeable persona, which will see him go all the way. Good luck, until next time, KWKW

The only thing I got right was that Lloyd and Jamie would be in the mix. I thought Jamie would be saved, but failed to consider the ridiculous attitude of Louis Walsh, who clearly elected to send Jamie home as a two fingered salute to Simon.

My apologies, we did our money, not once, but twice, so will need to find a couple of good things to get back on track. "I'm a celebrity, get me out of here", returned to our screens last night, with an unusally pleasant bunch of campers. I'll see if we can pick up a decent priced punt on this to add to our mix of TV reality bets. Until then, KWKW. 

Sorry for my absence - a combination of licking my wounds and illness, resulting in further licking of wounds. I am back and ready to make amends for our reversal last week.

Watching the performances last night, my first reaction was to note that both Danyl and Olly had early serious tuning difficulties. This may be due to the fact that the audience is very unruly and noisy (ITV seem to encourage this, but it is irksome and the judges comments are oft times drowned out) and at the start of songs they are at their most voiciferous and maybe the artistes cannot hear the music. I did see that Olly took one of his ear pieces out.

That led me to wonder if both of Simon's precious little darlings could end up in the bottom two. Don't forget he lost Jamie last week, who polled the fewest votes. Will Jamie's fans flock to one of the other acts - I am not sure, but on performances, although still streets ahead of the terrible two (Lloyd & the Twins), this pair were overshadowed by Stacey and Joe.

On another note, it it pathetic to see the two oldies (well they are both in their fifties) show such bitterness and self publicity every show. Louis has become a joke with his "rulebook", which was out again last night to say that Joe's song was an Elton John song and not a George Michael. What a twat!

Simon praised himself and said he took the credit for the improvement in another judge's artist and they are so far behind the two ladies when it comes to honest, accurate and clear headed, dispassionate analysis. However, on to what is likely to happen. Despite only 6 acts left, I think the Twins may well once again scrape through. Lloyd will be in the bottom 2 surely along with Danyl.

it should be Lloyd and the Twins, but I still feel that the public have not fully warmed to Simon's argumentative vocalist and he could bite the dust tonight. At 6/1 he is worth 2pts to bid farewell to his dreams.

I'm a celebrity, get me out of here, forever after only referred to as IACGMOOH, provides us with a surefire 7 point profit bet with Betfred. Lucy Benjamin as 15/8 to be eliminated first and Sam Fox is 5/2. It will be one of the two. Have 8 points on each, thus returning 23 if Lucy goes and 28 if Sam goes. Simple.

I explained that Simon's two acts had tuning difficulties and that Olly's song was not a strong one (absolutely imperative at this stage of the game), but went for the controversial Danyl to be his act which came unstuck. Wrong one, as Olly found himself in the bottom two with the very poor Twins.

It was up to Dannii to save him or send the game to deadlock, which is what Simon did twice before, eliminating very good singers, Rachel and Lucie (both Dannii's acts), so she had the opportunity to do exactly the same on him and leave it to the public vote. That would have been very interesting. However, as I have said before, she and Cheryl play it straight and made him look a right muppet, as she toyed with him before committing herself to a decision as to whom she would save, by asking, "is this a singing contest?". Clearly a reference to Simon failing to save her better vocalists in previous rounds, when it was down to him and he could (and should have) saved the better singer.

He squirmed, looked in her direction, was made feel small and a total exit outlet for sewage, which made for great viewing. She saved his act, but I am sure that this public humiliation of him on prime time TV, will not go unpunished. He is a vindictive little cocky sort (bit like Alex Ferguson) and will take his revenge at some point in the future. For now though, well done Dannii, you put the pricklet in his place.