When I say euro us dollar trading I refer to the American dollar being exchanged at the international foreign exchange level through interbanks against the European dollar. This pair is traded under the acronym of eurusd which is a combination of two 3 letter codes assigned to each currency by a regulatory group called International Organization for Standardization.

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Side note: See ISO 4217 for more on currency codes.

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Today the eurusd is trading at approximately 146.25. Technical traders would look at an fx chart and likely claim that this position is a point of resistance where a barrier exists. That area of resistance has several focal points and each one was established at a specific trading period in the past.

A chart can quickly identify these resistance levels.

The above weekly EURUSD chart shows the points of resistance.

1. This area was a trading range that lasted from October of 2007 to the end of February of 2008. That is a long consolidation period considering how quick prices can move out of a trading range when that range turns into a trend. During these months of price consolidation the eurusd traded between 143 and 149.5.
2. After breaking out of the range and trending upwards to 160 the eurusd came crashing down starting in August of 2008. At point two the eurusd traders took a breather which only shows on shorter timeframes but this was enough time to build another point of resistance that is in play at this time in history. The top price for point 2 is just under 149 and it was set in the third week of September of 2008.
3. Point 3 was another reflection point in the falling knife eurusd drama which saw the eurusd price move from 160 to 123 from July to October of 2008. Traders managed to auction the pair at a top price of about 147 by December of 2008 which set a third resistance barrier in the current euro us dollar trading game.

So what does this all mean for the future of this currency pair?

This is where I want to go next. I suggest that if you have a weak heart or no stomach for risk that you stop reading at this point.
If you are a yesman or yesperson who can't think for himself or herself then you may also want to leave this room because the future of the eurusd is about to be made assumptions about and some of those assumptions are not pretty for America or the rest of the World.

The Euro was launched on January 1, 1999 but did not become legal tender until January 1, 2002. Records or historical price charts of the electronic currency trading of this pair speak volumes. Keeping track of how the past currencies that make up the Euro were fairing against the US dollar is a matter of calculating trading averages within a basket.

See the following long term eurusd graph to see how that looks in historical price keeping terms.

That chart is a monthly record that dates back to 1989.

1. This is January 1, 1999 when the Euro began to be traded as an electronic or digital currency.
2. This is January 1, 2002 when it became legal tender.

Forex never sleeps. It took me a long time to understand this. It seems that it sleeps all the time if you watch the charts all day. Most of the time currency prices are static and hardly move. Weekends usually see no price movement at all until the late Sunday.

Unlike stock markets or other financial markets that have opening and closing hours the interbank international system where forex currencies trade is always open somewhere. A large sum of currency can move at anytime and anywhere in the world. This as very dangerous implications for traders of currencies and for the world in general.

I leave that for another time however and return to Euro to US dollar trading.

We have looked at the introduction or the Euro so now let me give a very brief overview of the US dollar.

The US dollar has been the major reserve currency of the world. It took over that role from the UK sterling pound who took the role away from the Spanish who ruled the world with their "pieces of eight" and Spain took over the role from the Romans who had the Denarius. He who controls the material wealth of the world controls the world so the saying goes. The US took over the reserve currency of the world role after the British Empire as a global super power lost it's lustre.

Only someone living completely sheltered from information or unable to process information is ignorant of the fact that the US role as a financial super power is being challenged.

The question is who will be the next Union or country to hold the torch or supremacy.

This post is not about answering that question. It is about painting potential scenarios that involve Euro to US dollar trading.

Technical traders call them cycles or trends. I looked at them in a hub called Forex Waves. Trends can last a very long time but they occur on every time frame from a single minute trend to monthly trends. Trading trends can be very lucrative but bucking trends or being a contrarian can be extremely dangerous.

Trends are a complete study by analysts of all types. To know how to identify a trend is similar to knowing the odds of succeeding in a situation or of getting out of a bad situation.

Knowing the odds is a study that Gerald Celente has taken very seriously for many years now. He is so accurate in his predictions and forecasts of the future of the economy that it makes the hair on my back rise just to listen to his thoughts on what is coming next. 

Like any speculator Celente does hold the right to be wrong and he states clearly that there are some methods or actions that could change the course of prediction but he holds strongly that the financial chaos that we have seen in the recent past is just one wave in a succession of waves that will change the world dramatically in the coming years. He could be put down as yet another fear mongering snake oil salesman but his track record has proven him to be correct in things to come to pass that have come to pass that this man really needs to be heard by everyone.

Agreeing with him is a matter of personal choice. Nature never lies in the end.

Gerald Celente has many blogs and websites going. I have listed some at the end in the link list.

But check out the following video on his beliefs and predictions for the world economy. 

I told you to stop reading a while back as this was going to get ugly.

But if you must go on then I have one more person who makes a sound case for the future of Euro to US dollar trading that I'd like to introduce to you.

Again what this person says is an opinion and is not intended by myself as a salespitch for you to invest in currencies. Doing so should only be done by people who have a very broad understanding of probabilities, trends such as forex waves produce, and sound money management strategies that consider worst case scenarios versus using leveraged funds to trade.

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For more on leveraged trading in the Commercial Real Estate market I invite you to read the following.

The Future CRE Crash

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If this person is right in his technical analysis of waves then the euro to US dollar trading looking forward to Q4 of 2011 will see a third major wave move the Euro into a much stronger position. Sure there will be lots of minor or mid term retracements within that longer period which is good for swing traders but the overall sentiment for the US dollar will be bearish.

Who is this person ?

After fighting with my internet connection for hours I have finally found the video where Adam Hewison - president of INO.com and co-creator of MARKETCLUB tradersblog.com explains how his long term trend forecast for the Euro traded against the American dollar will play out.

The video is called "How to get rich slowly in Forex". It does not not go into apocalyptic views of the world through titles such as Financial Armegeddon by 2012 that Celente dares to present but it is an interesting viewpoint which shows how cycles, waves, trends and other patterns found in nature such as fractals work.

I find this to be an amazing assessment and I will be watching this process to see if he is accurate.

I will also be keeping and eye on Celente, Schiff, and others to see how the world of currency trading pans out.

After all the fourth quarter of 2011 is the doorway to 2012 and with all the hype surrounding that year then who knows what will come of humanity.

So keep dreaming and reach for the stars. Stay calm and recall what Jackson Browne says about legal tender.