The Democratic Presidential Nominating Process

The closely fought contest between Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton has brought unprecedented attention to the complicated process by which the Democratic Party selects its presidential candidate. This hub will try and address how the process works, why it was set up this way in the first place, and how the structure of the nominating process is affecting the 2008 election.

So how exactly do the Democrats select their presidential candidates?

Formally, the Democrats will pick their candidate at the Democratic National Convention: this year it takes place in Denver between August 25th and 28th. The people who actually get to choose the party's nominee are known as delegates. There are 4,048 total delegates who will be allowed to vote at the convention (with a possible slight complication, explained below): 3,523 of these are "pledged delegates," who are sent to the convention based on the results of primaries and caucuses in each state, and 794 are unpledged "superdelegates," who are mostly Democrats in national office and other high ranking party members who can vote for whoever they choose too at the convention. Whoever gets a majority of the delegates' votes at the convention wins the nomination: each delegate's (pledged or super) vote counts equally.

Okay, so how are the delegates chosen?

• Superdelegates are chosen by the party: every single Democratic member of congress and governor currently in office automatically gets to be a superdelegate. Other superdelegates are chosen based on party rules: there are a certain number of slots for "distinguished party leaders" and members of the Democratic National committee.
• Pledged delegates are chosen by the state-level Democratic party organizations in each state. Each state is awarded a certain number of pledged delegates based on its population and how reliably Democratic that state is (what percentage of people voted Democratic in recent presidential elections).

• Individual states decide how to assign their allotted number of pledged delegates through primaries and caucuses: usually they divide the delegates on a roughly equal basis to the popular vote in their individual primary or caucus. So if hypothetical State X is allowed to award 100 delegates by the party, and Hilary Clinton wins 55% of the vote in that state's primary, she will receive 55 of the state's 100 delegates to the national convention.
• The above example is an extremely rough approximation of what actually happens in each state: often states will also award some delegates based on how well candidates do in each congressional district or will give a bonus to the candidate who wins the state as a whole. But a general rule of thumb is that the delegates will be assigned in a fashion roughly equal to the results of a state's primary or caucus.

Okay, but what is going on with Florida and Michigan?

• Florida and Michigan were punished by the Democratic Party for pushing their primaries up to January, a violation of party rules. Because of this the party has said it will not allow any of their delegates to be seated at the convention (pledged or super). So, as of now, Democrats in Florida and Michigan will have no say in who the Democratic nominee for president is, despite having held primaries back in January.

• This seems unfair, but the Florida and Michigan state Democratic parties had been warned that there would be serious penalties if they moved their primaries up.

Okay. So how does this all play out in the 2008 race between Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama?

• In recent history the nomination has almost always been wrapped up far before the convention. Usually one candidate wins a large enough number of primaries and caucuses to guarantee themselves the votes of a majority of the pledged delegates at the convention by mid spring. So by the time the convention rolls around in late summer, everyone else has withdrawn from the race and all of the delegates are free to vote unanimously for one candidate, unifying the party for the upcoming general election. Superdelegates usually don't play any role in choosing the nominee because the race is already decided by the time they get to vote.
• This year, however, the unprecedented competition between Clinton and Obama has them winning almost equal amounts of pledged delegates through the results of primaries and caucuses. As it currently stands, it will be impossible for either candidate to win the nomination through the support of pledged delegates alone: they will have to win some of the support of the superdelegates.
• Here's the math for this: currently (assuming Michigan and Florida do not get their delegates) a candidate needs the votes of 2025 delegates to win the nomination. According to the AP, Obama currently has 1368 pledged delegates to Hilary's 1226. There are only 659 pledged delegates that have yet to be awarded as of March 11th, which means that neither candidate is going to get to the required 2025 on the basis of primary and caucus results alone (Obama theoretically could if he won almost every single remaining pledged delegate, but to do so he would have to win every caucus and primary by close to unanimous support, which is not happening).
• Which means that the remaining 796 superdelegates will decide the election, since they can vote for whoever they want to for president. Each campaign has announced the support of a number of superdelegates so far, but these announcements are not concrete, as the superdelegates can change their minds up until the convention and vote for whichever candidate they want.

So what happens from here forward?

• Obama is almost definitely going to have a majority of pledged delegates when all the caucuses and primaries are completed in early June. Even if Michigan and Florida end up having re-votes (which is possible) or the Democratic Committee decides to allow the delegates from those states to vote as is (which is very unlikely, since no one besides Clinton was on the ballot in Michigan and none of the candidates campaigned in Florida) Obama will still have a slight lead in pledged delegates.
• Hilary is trying to narrow the gap in pledged delegates by performing well in the remaining primaries and caucuses, but even if she wins every single remaining state by 60-40 margins (she already lost Mississippi tonight) she will still find herself behind Obama going into the convention.
• Which means that, in order to get to the 2025 votes necessary to win the nomination, Hilary will have to convince a majority of the superdelegates to vote for her. The further behind Senator is in pledged delegates the harder it will be for her to win the votes of the superdelegates.
• If Hilary is only 10-20 pledged delegates behind going into the convention you could make the argument that the primaries and caucuses resulted in a virtual tie and that the superdelegates can vote to "break the tie," which seems to be Hilary's strategy as of now. However, if the current margins hold and Obama is up by 100+ delegates it will be extremely hard for Clinton to convince superdelegates to vote for her: they won't want to be seen as handing the nomination to Hilary over the clear popular will of the voters in the primaries and caucuses.

Okay: what do you think will happen.

I find it very hard to believe that Senator Clinton will be able to make up enough ground in the remaining primaries and caucuses to convince large numbers of superdelegates to vote for her. The math just isn't there. I think the fight will go through to Pennsylvania, but unless Hilary wins by huge (we're talking something like 65-35) margins in that primary superdelegates are going to move towards Obama. No Democratic leader (which all superdelegates are) wants to blow the November election on the potential cluster%$# that will result if the candidates start fighting over superdelegates and whether or not to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida. Hilary will have to make an extremely strong case that popular opinion has shifted dramatically to her side in order to justify starting this fight, and unless she wins Pennsylvania by at least 25 points, I don't see that happening.