Will Gold price go up or down? Are we Guilding the Lily?

Gold and the economy.

Will gold go up or down?

I have spent too much time listening to the pundits. Time for an opinion of my own on Gold.

Gold will go up astronomically if, and only if... war or economic disaster continues to rock our collective boats.

Gold is the perfect hard currency for the scaredy pants among us!

If you are frightened that the Feds got it wrong (like me,) and the dollar looks shaky to you then Gold offers the warm yellow glow of the sun at the most peaceful time of day.

Solace for the weary or hope with the new day's golden dawn.

In short gold is Linus's security blanket.

But be wary those who would buy Gold now, it is moody at this time having been ignored when it should have been climbing and allowed to fall when it was expected to rise, the pundits have mostly been wrong. Something will have to shake the tree first!

Gold's wandering away like this from it's "true" path is at least partly due to the usual failed panic attacks in the press and parts of the market that were supposed to shake it to it's roots but failed to cause more than a small flutter.

They just did not hit the fear button squarely enough to make an impact on a wide or diverse enough group of scaredy pants to affect the market and shake their tree.

The Stock Exchange remains the great unknown to me, it's width and breadth encompassing the whole human condition. As far as I know Carl Jung couldn't work it out either despite being a great shrink and having lots of understanding of the human condition.I wonder if he would be a gold buyer or seller in this market?

Humans are unfathomable when it comes to greed and fear, the dance of the investor. "Nothing is either right or wrong, but thinking makes it so." can be applied to gold investment as a strategy! If enough people get scared enough gold prices will go out through the roof.Good luck with picking the top!

Risk takers.

Gold has a history of rewarding the brave at times and I know those who have made fortunes from owning it at the right time. For example if you bought a stack of it last week, you would be sweet at $AU1,500.

I would always have pulled out far too early. One successful guy I know knew nothing about gold he just bought it and ignored all the cries of sell and cleaned up big over 3 years. He only took the money to invest in a new business he had started. Most of his profit from the gold sale had come in one big continuous price rise just before it dropped away, never to reach such heights again. He sold right at the top.

There is a lot of excited talk amongst investors in gold again today with war and financial mis-management splattered all over media.

Gold has been bet up down and sideways last year and this year may see some real margin added if things do not improve in the Middle East and world domestic markets. Some pretty sharp people are buying.

The long term benefit of Gold is it's real value as a rare metal that is used in much high end technology. Gold will be useful for a long time because of it's quality as a conductor and for many other high-end uses due to it's inherent qualities.

The potential for Gold to be a stable currency in a crisis is born of more mystical stuff though, as spiritual beliefs inherent in humans plays a major role.

In archetypal stories where bounty is to be had, it is Gold that is constant in the mix of riches to be plundered or recovered from pirates. "Pieces of eight" is the cry of the pirates parrot, not "buy Enron."

The way Gold is seen as a last currency to stand in a crisis enables traders to take some handsome margin on the small up and down cycles created by waves of fear in the market. Often based on the days headline and not much else.

If picked when ripe, gold is profitable short term but getting the high and low points far enough apart is where the big money is, and that is too brave for me.

The well heeled punter may do well.

Never an easy call for the very small investor.

Where are gold prices going?

Given a guess? I think it will climb this year, but I'm not depending on it.

Obama along with other world leaders may get it right at some point, although there is no sign of that yet. If they do Gold will not go out through the roof as some are predicting.

If they continue to get it wrong, we could see values return to where they once were at AU$800 dollars, but in today's money.

A figures of AU$3,000 would bring gold back up to around the AU$800 then.

If Obama can get America's economy up and fill a few diplomatic gaps this year Gold may not grow at all. We have enough in world reserves to ensure there is no need to dig up more for quite a while, and if the market survives gold may just trot along under the thousand mark for some time.

It will go up if the economy keeps sliding though.Count on the scaredy pants theory.

Gold!
Gold!

Gold. Always fascinating.

In the seventies I met a small gold minor who had invested all his efforts in to his goldmine believing that gold would make AU$1,000 an once before long. Well it was a long wait indeed.

Sometimes Gold prices seem to have wings and fly up without any apparent support. At other times, investors get tired of a Stodgy patch where gold is dormant and opt out lowering the price as they do so like lemmings.

The most annoying thing for small investors is that gold prices move a lot further up and down and quicker than many other investments so when we miss the gold bus it usually goes quite a few blocks before we can get back on at the adjusted fare, at which time it may be the end of the line.

More articles by earnestshub below, thank you for reading!

Comments 25 comments

agvulpes profile image

agvulpes 7 years ago from Australia

G'day earn , I think I must be in the scaredy pants brigade. I believe if I had the money I would be buying gold up. It went up to over $1000 the other day?


earnestshub profile image

earnestshub 7 years ago from Melbourne Australia Author

I think I might be a double scaredy pants, cos although gold hit $AU1500 I still stayed out!


agvulpes profile image

agvulpes 7 years ago from Australia

earnestshub. You are so right I would not be buying in right now I would be selling and putting my American dollars under the mattress! lol


earnestshub profile image

earnestshub 7 years ago from Melbourne Australia Author

agvulpes, I hope the lil ole USA still has a dollar next year, they might be trading in yuan!


agvulpes profile image

agvulpes 7 years ago from Australia

earnestshub, I meant more as a collectors piece. lol


earnestshub profile image

earnestshub 7 years ago from Melbourne Australia Author

That is very funny agvulpes, and a little dark!


sixtyorso profile image

sixtyorso 7 years ago from South Africa

Gold is a great hedge in bad economic times. What we really need is a universal currency and most of the world's woes will go away. We actually had this when most of the world was on the gold standard but the clever economists put a kybosh on that.


agvulpes profile image

agvulpes 7 years ago from Australia

sixtyorso, how are you mate?. I think the control of gold is in hands much too clever to let it happen again.


sixtyorso profile image

sixtyorso 7 years ago from South Africa

@Ag Yes I guess you are right. I am fine thanks just too many hubs to read ,too little time, not to mention writing my stuff as well.


earnestshub profile image

earnestshub 7 years ago from Melbourne Australia Author

Thanks gentlemen. I think gold may see 3k an ounce if things keep going the way they are. That price would equal the price of gold before it went back down the last time.


sophieqd profile image

sophieqd 7 years ago

Will Gold go up Or are we Guilding the Lilly

This is really good information.


earnestshub profile image

earnestshub 7 years ago from Melbourne Australia Author

Thank you sophiqd!


Tom Whitworth profile image

Tom Whitworth 7 years ago from Moundsville, WV

Hi earnesthub,

I just noticed your HUB on gold. It seems to have been inactive for a while. I can not speak of other countries but for the actions of the US Federal Reserve Board I know it's action of monitizing US public debt will make the US dollar depreciate in value in a steady and lasting manner.

So in September of 2009 gold looks golden as an investment.

Sorry for being so late with my comment.


earnestshub profile image

earnestshub 7 years ago from Melbourne Australia Author

better late than never! :) Thanks for youe observations Tom.


knowledgeeater profile image

knowledgeeater 6 years ago from Omaha, NE

Yes, I read somewhere that since 1999, gold has risin somewhere over 250% more. I think. Good article!


earnestshub profile image

earnestshub 6 years ago from Melbourne Australia Author

Well here we are approaching mid 2010 and no big movement in price. Obama has the health care bill in, a nuclear non proliferation agreement is to be signed with Russia, GM is paying back it's loan along with several large banks, Greece and Italy may be able to get by, so I am guessing gold will not climb at this time.


InGoldWeTrust profile image

InGoldWeTrust 6 years ago from Colorado

Gold is insurance and not an investment. Over the long term it just retains its purchasing power. It buys today what it bought thousands of years ago. Don't worry too much about $1400, $1650 or infiinity. Intermediate swings will give you a heart attack. Reality is that the economic situation for the whole world is going to take a nose dive shaking confidence in the whole system so this is bullish for gold


earnestshub profile image

earnestshub 6 years ago from Melbourne Australia Author

Thanks for the comment InGoldWeTrust.

I agree gold is bullish in a flat world economy. I wonder if the price of gold could soon see a return to earlier relatively higher levels?

That would put gold over $3,800 dollars at today's dollar.


neeraj lakhotia 5 years ago

I think gold ll go up this week gold ll touch 1880 dolar so buy in every dips


Slingshot 5 years ago

Gold has been dipping and its been unstable these past 3 weeks. What makes you say it will go up?


earnestshub profile image

earnestshub 5 years ago from Melbourne Australia Author

Gold has been fluctuating wildly again, but I still think it is a grand underpriced.

I have had it right the last 2 years, and reckon I still have it right.

It may go down for a short while, but the fundamentals should see it rising again very soon,


former jedi knight 5 years ago

ive had 5 jobs this past three years & they have either down sized there staff or gone bust so enough is enough ive been using my laptop as a cash machine after saving £11 a week for a few months as i don't drink much & i don't smoke i put just over £175 in2 a casino account playing amarican roulette on line last year i bought just over one and a half ounces of gold & after 9 months i sold it on ebay made a nice profit then with more winnings ive now stated to invest in tanzanite jems as they wil run out in nxt ten years or so from the only mine in tanzanere & my nxt investment project me & my family have just bought a property and had it converted into an hmo and has just had 5 of the 6 rooms filled at £109 per room per week so yes gold is a safe havern but id go 4 bricks at mo not bars now rule number one like they say on dragons den gap in the market property cash is stil king and giving a roof over some ones head wen they carnt get on the property ladder its a case of supply n demand me and my family r now out the down turn god gives us all a brain so use it fortune favours the bold


GoldPriceNet profile image

GoldPriceNet 5 years ago

Useful hub earnestshub! Thank you very much!


Alexander 4 years ago

It would seem that the little guys are scared and laying low while such as George Soros and his ilk juggle the price of gold around for a few months until the small guy forgets, and gets suckered in and fleeced again as usual.

A few ounces of physical gold isn't going to benefit anyone while the 'wise guys' are able to manipulate millions of ounces of gold and silver that doesn't exist, except on paper.

This is a case of where there IS honor among thieves.


deepak jain 4 years ago

whereever i think it,s price will stay same for atleast 2 years

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