Interesting perspective... I'll try:
1. I think the growth of cloud computing makes IT very important for the next decade
2. Costs are coming down, so software/hardware assets will be more fluid
3. Billing of mainstream corporations will continue "as a service" rather than as hardware/software -- the more agile companies will thrive in a utility model
I do agree -- software IT giants are doomed if they don't move fast enough... Microsoft and Oracle scare me. They might be too big and weighed down to make their cloud dividsions matter. That said -- they do have the money to just acquire any company that's kicking their butts... Watch Salesforce.com, even at an $18B+ USD market cap get bought out by someone before we get too far...