2011 Global Warming Latest News – NO Consensus On Human Cause
In 2011, a large number of people continue to argue convincingly that carbon dioxide emissions cause dangerous global warming, even though all the evidence does NOT support this argument.
SURVEY -- Global Warming
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Robert M. Carter is an Adjunct Research Professor at James Cook University and a marine geologist who studies Earth’s ancient climate. He receives research funding from competitive public funding agencies such as the Australian Research Council. He receives no funding from special interest groups such as environmental organizations, government agencies or the oil industry. In his peer-reviewed journal article, Knock, Knock: Where Is The Evidence For Dangerous Human-Caused Global Warming?, he writes:
“… since the early 20th century it has been agreed amongst climatologists that ‘climate’ is taken to be represented at a particular site by an averaged 30-year-long span of meteorological data.”
This means that humankind’s instrumental record of climate change is as follows:
- 153 years of thermometer data = 153/30 = 5.1 or roughly 5 climate data points
- 53 years of radiosonde data = 53/30 = 1.8 or roughly 2 climate data points
- 33 years of satellite data = 33/3 = 1.1 or roughly 1 climate data point
Christopher R. Scotese, former Co-Director of the Paleoceanographic Mapping Project at the University Of Chicago, starts his discussion of Earth’s climate at 2 billion years ago.
If we use Scotese’s starting place for discussing Earth’s climate at 2 billion years ago, and we use 30 years as the span of time between distinct climate points, then we observe that the number of climate points in Earth’s climate history is:
2,000,000,000 years/30 years = 66,666,667 climate points, well over sixty-six MILLION climate points! Modern measurement of climate data spans a mere 5 climate points, or a phenomenally miniscule seven hundred millionths (0.00000007 of Earth’s climate history).
According to Scotese, during the past 2 billion (that’s BILLION) years, Earth’s climate has oscillated between ice houses and hothouses, or generally, between very cold conditions and very warm conditions. Climate oscillation, therefore, is the rule, NOT the exception on Earth. Even in the absence of humans and in the absence human industrial activities, Earth’s climate normally goes through ups and downs.
During the last 4,500 years alone (a relatively small span, compared to two billion years), at least seventy-five significant temperature swings have occurred.
Why The Global Warming Uproar ?
Why, then, does an average global temperature increase of only a fraction of one degree in 150 years seem to cause such an emotional stir in so many people?
I suggest that a good many people cannot evaluate all the relevant facts, taken together. As human beings, we tend to make judgments according to our first impressions and according to the least complex explanations. We tend to make judgments based on circumstantial evidence and strong associations, even though all associations are NOT correlations. We also tend to respond to good salesmanship.
The sole mission of the United Nations political organization known as the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) is to investigate HUMAN influences on climate. A person could argue that this primary focus on human influences predisposes the IPCC to finding these very influences, because IPCC panel members recognize only evidence that supports their already-decided conclusion (what researchers call “confirmation bias”). Add the additional bias of news media who thrive on bad news, and we have a full-blown, epic tale of how humankind’s carbon dioxide emissions threaten the planet.
The Way It Is -- Scaled In Degrees
The Way It Is Exagerated -- Scaled In Tenths Of ONE Degree
Studies of the geological record show that rapid natural climate changes have occurred in the past, at speeds and at magnitudes that would be hazardous to human life and economic well-being today.
Carter points out:
“... rapid temperature switches of several degrees within a few years to a decade have long been identified in ice core and other records. ... Similarly, rapid changes are recorded in the modern instrumental data record. For example, during the 1920s warming in Greenland, at five coastal weather stations, the average annual temperature rose between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius [and by as much as 6 degrees Celsius in winter] in less than ten years. “
Worries about climate change, therefore, are not without justification. Worries about humans as primary causes of catastrophic climate change, however, ARE UNjustified. At least in the present era, if we look, with open minds, at all sources of evidence, then we canNOT conclude that any signal of human influence on Earth’s climate exists. The signal for humanity’s effect on Earth’s global average temperature simply has not been detected. I have discussed this in detail in 4 previous hubpages articles:
Proper worries about climate change, therefore, are worries about NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE. Just as we are justified to make plans for inclement weather, we are justified to make plans for inclement climate. In other words, we must adapt to anticipated crises for the right reasons. We must plan to survive, as we always have.
Humans currently are not climate threats, but rather engineers to prevent devastation from natural forces.
Global Cooling NOW – Are You Kidding?
In the midst of heated debates over human-caused global warming, intelligent, knowledgeable people are now presenting evidence that global cooling is currently under way.
Matti Vooro discusses this seemingly paradoxical claim in his article, Signs Of Global Cooling.
Chart Forcasting Future Global Cooling
I am very much in favor of a healthy body and a healthy world. I do not believe that a fossil-fuel technology is the most elegant technology. But I still do NOT believe that carbon dioxide from our current fossil-fuel technology is the evil destroyer that many people believe it is.
My reasons for wanting cleaner technologies are aesthetic, much as my reasons for wanting people to stop smoking are hygienic. Truly advanced civilizations care deeply about the beauty and elegance of their choices.
Robert M. Carter (September 2008), Knock, Knock: Where Is The Evidence For Dangerous Human-Caused Global Warming?, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS & POLICY, vol 38, no 2, pp 177-202
William Happer [Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics at Princeton University] (June/July 2011), The Truth About Greenhouse Gases, FIRST THINGS
Christopher R. Scotese (2002), Climate History, PALEOMAP PROJECT
Matti Vooro (January 2011), Signs Of Global Cooling, NOTRICKSZONE
Peter H. Zeigler (November 2010), GLOBAL WARMING AND PHANERZOIC CLIMATE CHANGES
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