500 ships and 3000 mines
October is the key month. It is one month away from the US presidential election and by some accounts, Iran may have enough weaponized uranium for its first nuclear bomb. Even if this is incorrect, the current consensus seems to be in terms of "months" not years. Because of this, October is key because if Israel is going to strike, whether effective or not, it would seem no more wasted time would be allowed to pass.
If Israel did strike, Iran's could easily cause havoc on the world's oil supply by releasing and planting 2-3000 of its mines in the narrow Strait of Hormuz. It is only 200 ft. deep and 30 miles wide, yet, 500 oil tankers and others transit through the narrow straits within miles of Iran mainland and islands. Note, that Iran has many mobile anti-ship missile batteries hidden. Each can take out a ship or cripple it. The floor of the Persian Gulf ocean bed contains lots of metal debris and because of this it makes it difficult for sonar and video transmission from search devices. In 1991, Iraq released 1000-2000 mines. It took 32 ships and one year to clear it!
The US has only eight mine warfare vessels there made of wood and aluminum to avoid triggering the 660 lb. warhead of Iran's Chinese rocket mines that within seconds devastate any ship. Iran has many of these. Iran has created many under water IED's made to look like harmless junk, like a refrigerator. This increases the problem of searching for them. Iran can lay mines in a dormant state and during peacetime and then activate the mines when needed. Experts feel this has already happened to a degree. They have five mine laying ships and submarines that can lay mines. Some of their mines can detect a ship approach, turn off to avoid detection, and then activate and fire in seconds. Other mines use seismic detection to alert the mine CPU.
Since it only takes a few hits from Iran's mines to create a huge mess and panic on the oil market and in the Hormuz area, the only downside that would prevent Iran from doing this would be due that mining would cripple its own oil exports!
