Are pre poll surveys sponsored by the parties?

Opinion polls March 16.

Are opinion polls are Doctored?

Are opinions polls are sponsored and doctored? This doubt raises in the mind of many media watchers recently. Unbiased and transparent opinion polls have become rare as the poll date nears. Since the election commission has banned the publishing of such opinion polls by 14th May, many groups of media release their results one by one in Tamilnadu.. The polling will take place on 16th May and the results may be out by 19th afternoon since only electronic voting machines are used to register the votes.

I am watching with interest many results published so far by the print media. Around 50% of the media points out that DMK will win maximum number of seats paving the way for the assumption of power, while the other 50% stands behind the ruling AIADMK front. The other contestants are seen to garner around 20 to 30 seats altogether. While the BJP will be the biggest loser this time, the PMK which contests all the 234 seats may likely to get only single digit seats. This time the campaign has seen vociferous accusations against one another, almost all the leaders repeat a few allegations at every place.

pre poll survey May 2016

Criminals pointing out at others!

Only an honest leader is eligible to point out at the mistakes of other contestants. Strangely, both the ruling and opposition DMK are deep in trouble due to their deep involvement in corruption cases in the past and many cases are still hanging fire in various high courts and Sessions court. The verdict is not out probably considering the election time. Also summer holidays for the courts deferred the judgment for the time being which is a breather for the ruling AIADMK. The DMK can not dream better since the cases pertaining to their family members are in advanced stages. Hence it is ridiculous that they blame one another about corruption!

The third front is blameless but of an assorted sort. Their clean image could garner the new voters’ favor that are young and decide based on the merits of the candidates but their total strength which is below 12% of vote share may dent the prospects of leading contestants in certain pockets. Who will be the gainer in these strange circumstances is a difficult equation. The traditional voters of the both Dravidian parties may choose to cast their votes as before. But due to the participation of five major fronts, the votes are likely to be split to an extent. Even a one percent tilt can spell doom to the regular contestants of the Dravidian parties. Probably, this may be a reason why a third front was formed after much reluctance. In fact, many of the contestants of the third front, tried to make alliance with one or other parties like DMK and AIADMK. Since their preconditions were not acceptable to the DMK and AIADMK, they were left in the lurch till the last moment. The last minute effort of other constituents of the third front like MDMK, VC and Communists, a temporary truce was reached and all the members accepted DMDK leader Vijayakant as the group leader and projected him as the “Chief Ministerial candidate”

Read between the lines of opinion survey!

It remains to be seen what the spoil game of the third front which may go in favor of either the ruling AIADMK or DMK. As I have already dealt in my previous hubs on elections, the post flood situation in Tamilnadu is a dampener to the ruling front since their contribution is very little during the hazardous calamity. But in the prohibition policy, both DMK and AIADMK stand on the same plank since they were the brain behind scrapping prohibition and introducing government controlled fair price shops for liquor. Since some bigwigs in both the parties are holding much interest in liquor manufacturing, how they are going to implement prohibition in the State is a riddle. Around ten thousand crores is generated as revenue in the state. How they are going to compensate the loss is a million dollar question.

Of late, just six months prior to election, the Chief Minister has introduced many people friendly schemes which is very much appreciated by the public, forgetting the past wounds of disastrous flood.

For the past few days, the Chief Minister has undertaken a whirlwind tour around all the constituencies of the state. Even long before the DMK youth wing leader has started touring every pocket of the state and interacted with almost all sections of society. He is clear with his facts and figures. His hard work and open talk has won many voters and they accept his frank talk.

Leaving aside the opinion polls which are mostly sponsored by either of the party, we can say that the stakes are EVEN, but the third front has the answer on the polling day since they will eat the vote share of many candidates of DMK and AIADMK.

Typical contestants of Tamilnadu polls.

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