Brexit: A masterclass in destroying a country
The British establishment is like an ageing punch drunk boxer convinced they can be a world champion. Britain may still punch above its weight but, after the EU referendum its weight is dropping faster than a politician can lie (they must stop for breath sometime, though Artificial intelligence may remove that obsta- cle unless it decides to tell the truth). The punch drunk boxer is desperately trying to keep control of their extremities but the extremities are not listening and may drop off at any time. The boxer has also lost contact with reality: the new Minister for Brexit has stated the border between Northern Ireland and Eire is an internal border. It would seem his last lesson in history was in 1920.
Optimism, Denial and the Tory Wet Dream
The Brexit gang and the parts of the media and establishment that are more optimistic or deeper in denial say the economic rebound to a level just below that before the EU referendum shows the UK will prosper outside the EU and the worries of the Remain camp are the bletherings of idiots. Evidence is mounting however that Brexit is likely to cause a recession and may well destroy the economy completely, finishing the job the Banks started in 2008 and justifying the Tory wet dream of a post Brexit signup to TTIP and a corporatocracy that will interfere in the laws of the UK far more than the EU ever did.
Britain will probably end up like Russia before the Soviet Union shut up shop, a rich core surrounded by a Bangladesh in which Human and Workers rights are restricted to getting out of the way of the limousines driven by the Elite.
Britain will not be an economic or military world power in the foreseeable future. But Brexit has just about destroyed Britain’s soft power as well as its economic power and removed such clout as it has as a Sceptical Member state
Lost Jobs, No opposition, Labour avoids power
A Scottish construction firm has gone bankrupt with the loss of several hundred jobs because its (EU based) bank Santander withdrew its overdraft. It seems likely that Brexit played a role in the decision, as the company’s problems had been known for quite a while.
Brexit is causing problems for British Science, but since Research is seen as a cost not an investment, the Establishment do not care. In any case the Universities are full of irritating left wing chappies who insist on using FACTS to assess policies for Gods sake. The world would be in a fine state if people stopped to think rather than plunge ahead with an idea and no plan how to implement it. Better not have universities at all if we cannot control what they think and say. Disgusted grunts and treble Scotch all round.
Labour are demonstrating as they have done since 2014 when Milliband said they would rather have a Tory government then enter a coalition with the SNP. that their MPs at least do not want to power. To be fair only a moron would want to be Prime Minister at this time but it is part of the duty of Her Majesty’s Loyal opposition to seek power. In the Labour twig in North Britain, as they think of Scotland, some Labour heavyweights in the increasingly shrinking party are hinting or indeed saying that they would support Scottish Independence. Had that been in their manifesto they might have got more Holyrood seats than the Tories. But it us too late now.
It is becoming obvious that Brexit may never happen and that the government does not want it to happen. This puts the Westminster Government, AKA the Tory Party, whatever the colour of their rosette, in a dilemma.
As long as Article 50 is not triggered relationships with the EU will sour even further and the Tory party will be split between Leavers and Remainers. This issue cuts across the Left-right divide in the whole of the UK and across the Unionist-independence divide in Scotland. Fortunately a reasonable number of anti EU and Pro independence people are pragmatic enough to realise the the EU can be used as a tool to drive independence forward after which the issue can be revisited. Unfortunately there seem to be a good percentage of
independence supporters seem to think that Independence would be gained if we are dragged out of the EU. Prediction is difficult but it would seem that Scottish independence should come first
If article 50 is triggered then support for independence will soar and a referen- dum may not even be needed: All Scotland needs to do is be as obstructive as possible, vetoing everything it can, subject to the need to preserve Scotland’s interests, and Westminster may well expel Scotland from the UK. To do this they would have to demerge from the Unionist party which might lose them support in Scotland. The clock towards Brexit would be ticking and unless an election were held on the basis of EU membership, an election the Tories would probably lose.
Would a second independence referendum be a trap for Scotland?
It seems likely that Theresa May would be keener on a second independence referendum than Nicola Sturgeon. If such a referendum gave a NO vote she would claim it as a mandate for dragging Scotland out of the EU against its will. If it gave a YES vote she would have an excuse for reluctantly and crocodile tearfully waving goodbye to Scotland and getting on with dragging Northern Ireland and Gibraltar out of the EU. With Scotland gone the Tories would have no opposition in England and rule permanently on 10% of votes cast. This is a good reason for delaying a second Independence referendum as a YES vote is not guaranteed at present. Frankly a win-win options for May that is not also a win-win option for Scotland should not be tried.
What's going on?
Meanwhile back in that deprecated region known as reality the pound has not recovered, jobs are being lost, Trident was renewed and the 400 million jobs its supporters said would be lost if it were not renewed have vanished, only some
520 remaining. Spain has said it would veto a Brexit settlement that would mean the UK kept Gibraltar but would not - allowing for the usual Politician’s reluctance to make a statement they cannot wriggle out of - veto an independent Scotland’s entry to the EU. France and other EU countries have said the UK cannot remain in the European Market without having freedom of movement and it looks like trade deals with the EU will be very difficult after Brexit.
The Scottish mainstream media seem to be gradually shifting towards support- ing independence, cautiously in case Westminster find a way to wriggle out of Brexit, though an increase in sales after a firm declaration of support for Inde- pendence would make it hard to reverse course. They are still not mentioning the recent rise in Oil Prices. Boris Johnson is making the expected progress as Foreign Secretary, Teresa May was virtually destroyed at Prime Minister’s ques- tion time by the youngest MP in the commons, one minister claimed the UK had sovereignty over Scotland and, though nobody dares hold an opinion poll, support for Scottish UDI seems to be growing. That would be a hard dangerous road to travel but as things are going it looks like the EU and possibly the USA would recognise Scotland. It would only take a few more of Boris Johnson’s jokes to seal the deal. Politics is reaching a level of lunacy that is increasingly hard either to mock or to satirise which explains the lack of sarcasm in this note. The BBC are reporting the damage Brexit is doing to the Economy while the Daily Telegraph is saying the economy has recovered and is doing fine. It is always good to see the Establishment media fighting each other.
At present England is holding Scotland back and Scottish Independence is be- coming increasingly needed for the economic, cultural and social survival of Scotland. Luckily there are hints some people are looking at the issues that defeated the YES movement in 2014: Oil, Pensions and Currency.
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Scotland will eventually become independent but careless action by advocates of independence could delay it for generations. A degree of ruthlessness and self examination is needed by the YES movement
In Indyref2 Unionists will send every floating voter in Scotland a personally targeted message before the YES movement decides where the first march will be.
The gifts the Tories seem to be giving to the Independence movement should be treated as traps. Economic NO voters should be targeted as potential YES voters.