Campaign 2016 (Keeping Current)

The Political Unknown

You can bet, or not.

Something unknown will come up.

All bets are off then.

There are lots of silent folks,,,,who will vote in 2016

When the sun finally sets and the election is over for 2016, chances are the outcome will have nothing in common with how the campaigns looked in December 2015.
When the sun finally sets and the election is over for 2016, chances are the outcome will have nothing in common with how the campaigns looked in December 2015. | Source

A Comment on why December 2015 has next to nothing to do with the outcome of Election 2016.

Let's, for just a moment, postulate three unlikely scenarios to have played out in December 2015 as a few Americans looked forward to Election 2016, then less that 11 months away.

Donald J. Trump, the leading Republican candidate at that time, proposes a plan for the war refugees flooding an increasingly nervous Europe. His proposal: "Send us the refugees. You pay to ship them all to the USA. We will provide them safe, but secure facilities. The United Nations will agree to provide for them We will train any who want to go back and fight to secure their homelands. When their homelands are secure, we will send them all home. We will grant none of them citizenship. We will only provide secure, temporary sanctuary. And we will send them all home."

Former First Lady Clinton, the leading Democrat candidate at the time, makes her own proposal: "Rather than intern refugees here in America, my proposal is to set up internment camps in the overburdened Eurozone countries for the refugees who make it to Europe, and we will fund providing for those refugees needs in those camps until they can go back to their own countries when peace is restored."

Senator Bernie Sanders, the other leading Democrat running to be president, makes his own proposal: "America has always been a welcoming nation for the wretched mass from Europe's teeming shores, and history proves that works out just fine. We will accept and integrate 20% of those refugees, allowing them to work their way toward citizenship with an initial stipend of $2,500 (US) for each man, woman, and child we accept, while providing free medical care and counseling, education through the 12th Grade, and job counseling."

This hypothetical set of proposals, dealing as it does with only one concern the world has had in 2015 and early 2016, would not be a factor in Election 2016 (even if the proposals were actually made) until November's voting in 2016.

Why should we even consider these hypothetical proposals?

Undoubtedly some proposals will be needed to deal with the contentious issue of Syrian, Afghan, and various Middle Eastern refugees flooding into Europe at a time when Americans are clearly divided about what humanitarian role a nervous United States of America should play in the crisis.

But, looking at that one issue in the context of 11 months of campaigning, while a sitting president must deal with any American role in that particular crisis, illustrates that eleven months of campaigning simply means that many unknowns can cloud the final outcome when we try to crystal ball what will actually happen between the end of 2015 and Election Day 2016.

As we try to look that far ahead we are handicapped by the existence of a number of other potential opponents for their parties' nominations, debates which are winding down but incomplete, party conventions which must be held, and policies the final candidates themselves have not even finalized. And then there are always the unexpected surprises along the way.

Mrs. Clinton in December 2015 was still the subject of an ongoing FBI investigation into her conduct while Secretary of State in the Obama administration. Donald J. Trump was still a politically incorrect campaigner working to gain a solid foothold on his over exuberance. Senator Sanders was as apparently radical in promoting his version of "democratic socialism" as Mr. Trump was in emphasizing his own political incorrectness. And, the other potential candidates were still lingering as America's low percentile, traditional underdogs.

Americans will listen to the political pundits, the roller coaster pollings, the billion dollar ad campaigns, and all the rest of the hoopla....politically correct and otherwise....until it all comes down to who gets out their dedicated, locked-in voters, and what all those undecided (even uncaring) voters from a distant December 2015 finally do at the November 2016 ballot boxes.

As they say in a game of pool, "It's an open table."

____________

© 2015 Demas W. Jasper All rights reserved.


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Comments 12 comments

savvydating profile image

savvydating 11 months ago

Great hub. We're on the same page. A few months ago, I said to someone as we were stepping off the elevator at my workplace, "The guys who are at the top now, will be at the bottom or gone at the end....and those you barely hear of now, will rise." And so this is beginning to occur now, slowly. In the end, we shall see who is left standing. I pray to God it will be someone who has the strength to handle the mess we're in now---both at home and abroad.


FlourishAnyway profile image

FlourishAnyway 11 months ago from USA

I just cannot believe people take Trump seriously. He's offended everyone there is and yet he's still in the race. I just don't get it.


savvydating profile image

savvydating 11 months ago

Those who have studied the Trump phenomenon state that his followers are primarily uneducated or, as I prefer to say, uninformed voters. You see the same thing with Hillary lovers. Most, if not all of them, have chosen to disregard her record. Most, in fact, don't look at her record at all. And so, it is the same with Trump, Flourish. People fall for the rhetoric without realizing, apparently, that one must research a persons record and learn to read their demeanor, among many other things. Talk is cheap. It's what one has done and is doing that matters. But, of course, you know all of that.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 11 months ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

savvydating - Trump's record and Hillary's will be gone over with a fine toothed comb by the time the campaigns start in all seriousness. The records are there, just as Romney's was. The surprising thing is that we even to this day know so little about Obama's and jos wife's. The rest of the admonitions are right out of my high school Civics Class and remain true today (as to how to properly choose among candidates. The again, that class isn't taught anymore in our public schools.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 11 months ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

Dear F.A. - One in this series was subtitled (The Trump Phenomenon). It possibly has some answers for your question. Another answer is this equation: Outsider + Business Success + Tough Public Image = Desirable (given the public's disenchantment with "the system".) When he makes serious political and social gaffes, Trump is credited with "speaking his mind" and not being preened by handlers.


Ericdierker profile image

Ericdierker 11 months ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

This was a cool way to address this one issue. I like it. Although I see more value in how they respond to a certain dilemma than you do. Sure the issue will be dealt with before November but it still gives us insight and makes the choices more clear. You laid that out here real well, thank you.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 11 months ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

Dear Erik - And watch for more in this series as the winds of fickle fortune blow these cold winds of winter, the cool breezes of summer, and the hot air of Campaign 2016.


MsDora profile image

MsDora 11 months ago from The Caribbean

Sometimes it's uncomfortable to laugh and at the same time, unnecessary to cry at all the different scenarios; and to think there might be surprises we haven't thought about.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 11 months ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

Dear Dora, Surprises seem likely, some coming from Pres. Obama, some possible from the FBI, certainly some from Mr. Trump, and others likely from any of the various cadre, lobbyists, PACs and Super PACS. 293 days left to go, and any one day can have its share of surprises.

And then there remains ISIS, its ilk, and their surprises!


aviannovice profile image

aviannovice 11 months ago from Stillwater, OK

It sure is an open table. You have brought out the political highlights on a primary issue, as well as the fact that the current President may have to deal with most of this, while the promising candidates may have no involvement whatsoever. Short, sweet, and definitely to the point, just the way I like it!


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 11 months ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

After last night's debate by the three Democrats, I have even more respect for Governor O'Malley, no excuses there, no bashing, just a record of performance and a decent, quality, family man. If I voted today, and had those three to choose from, he would have my vote.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 11 months ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

I notice that (probably out of party loyalty....political correctness) not one of the three suggested what President Obama has failed to do, done poorly, or screwed up. Perhaps another vacation in Hawaii and away from "Christmas in the White House" will allow him to think of more serious things than golf.

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