Election 2012: It's the numbers, Governor Romney.

Figures are inert, they don't lie. But liars sure can figure out how to distort them!

Is it already too late for a Romney Victory Ball?
Is it already too late for a Romney Victory Ball? | Source

Pundits have been wrong, but not lately.


Like two lions roaring at each other over the remaining scraps.

That is how the candidates look as they each prepare for the only thing that really counts, the mood and votes of the voters on November 6, 2012..

As it stands now, the conventions have taken place, and the three TV "debates" which start on October 3rd will put the final nail in one candidate's hopes to be president in January 2013.

The conventions, the negative ads, the debates, and the country's crises will, however, affect the politics of the next four years primarily because they will affect the influence the races for the Senate and the House of Representatives can have on America's future.

Is the race for the presidency really over?

Polling, which becomes more mathematically compelling with each election (provided that the sampling and the questions are not skewed, indicates that it might be. The debate over electoral votes vs. popular votes seems muted at this point.

The current polling says that President Obama "has a lock" on 13 states and Governor Romney has a similar lock on 21 states. That disparity, however, does not seem to be in favor of Governor Romney, yet.

One of the "solid for Obama" states is California, and several other "giants in the Electoral College balloting" which polling currently suggests are presently "solid for Obama" include Illinois, New York, Michigan, and New Jersey.

Those "solid for Obama" states account for this part of the U. S. population:


Estimated Populations (Top 5 of Obama)

37,691,900 California

19,465,200 New York

12,869,300 Illinois

9,876,200 Michigan

8,821,200 New Jersey


The "solid for Romney" states have populations with these numbers:


Estimated Populations (Top 5 of Romney)

25,674,700 Texas

9,815,200 Georgia

6,830,038 Washington

6,403,353 Tennessee

4,802,740 Alabama


The states for which the struggle continues are these:


Estimated Populations Both Candidates Are Courting

2,723,300 Nevada

5,116,800 Colorado

3,062,300 Iowa

8,096,600 Virginia

9,656,400 North Carolina

19,057,500 Florida

12,742,900 Pennsylvania

11,545,000 Ohio


Americans will speak at their ballot boxes on November 6, 2012. Between now and then the fundraisers will continue, the lions will continue to roar, the staffs will be paid, and the polling by both sides and some truly independent, professional pollers, will continue. The conventions have been held with all their hoopla, some TV debates will be aired, and the spin doctors will try to tell Americans what they should have seen and heard for themselves.

It's all in the numbers, Governor Romney and Candidate Obama.

Could there be an upset, and Governor Romney win? It might seem an upset at this point, and that will seem to some to be unlikely. Besides the "solids" and the "leanings" and even with some states still in doubt, the writing on the wall is becoming clearer as the campaigning days dwindle down to their precious few.

What remains to be done?

The record low ratings for Congress' performance should mean a flood of new faces being sworn in after the congressional races are decided. Incumbent name recognition and fundraising ability will, however, mean we are more likely to see more of the same faces, same arguments, and same stalemates continue.

The debates can make a difference in the congressional races. Some difference is needed, if America is to unify enough to resolve the problems of a growing National Debt and a crippled economy. Those numbers are the real key issues of Election 2012. Charisma won't solve those issues, bipartisanship can, but will we see it improve with what we voted for?

Time, and the voters who actually vote, will write the final story of Election 2012.

_______

Copyright 2012 Demas W. Jasper All rights reserved.

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Comments 8 comments

Michele Travis profile image

Michele Travis 4 years ago from U.S.A. Ohio

What matters most is that fact that people vote. They need to realize that even though the Republicans have tried to restricts voting, there are other ways to vote. People really need to vote. Well at least that is what I think. Good hub.

Voted up.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

There are, as we have discussed, many reasons why America's eligible voters do not vote, even in presidential elections. It is more important than perhaps in any previous election that they should vote this year, for it is likely that the very nature of America going forward will be determined by how this year's eligible voters show up and vote. If some don't vote, they can settle for what they get as determined by those who do vote. Then the dust wil settle and we can see how deep a hole we are in and rely on those we elect to get us out of it.

If you believe our American system works, show the rest of the world by voting!


aviannovice profile image

aviannovice 4 years ago from Stillwater, OK

I like how you describe the candidates as the lions. So true!


point2make profile image

point2make 4 years ago

Excellent hub Mr.P. Your conclusions are well reasoned and, given the present situation, reflect an accurate prediction of the outcome. Historically is is very difficult to defeat an incumbent and this year will, probably, continue that trend. Mr Romney does not have the luxury of time to introduce himself and his policies to the electorate. For many he is still somewhat of an unknown. Mr Obama, on the other hand, has been very successful in controlling the "optics" of the campaign and has been somewhat more successful in presenting Mr Romney and his policies to the electorate that Mr. Romney has himself. Mr Obama is controlling the "agenda" and that will be very difficult for Mr Romney to overcome. I enjoyed your hub Mr.P....voted up and shared!


Derdriu 4 years ago

Perspycacious, May everyone who can vote do so since that it is what a democracy is about: people voting for the presidential/vice presidential contenders that have the best interests of all Americans at heart.

Respectfully, and with many thanks for sharing, Derdriu


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

A key question is how we make every voters vote count! As an example, Republicans in California don't see their votes expressed in the Electoral College, and Democrats in Utah don't either. As a result, many of those voters won't "bother" to vote. Without such voters' votes, a clear expression of "the will of the people" for America is not being expressed. I believe in the safeguard of having the Electoral College as a guard against a bogus "October Surprise," but it is up to the individual states to fashion their own ways to "make every voter's vote count!" In far too many states, the ruling parties have no intention of making their opposition's votes really count nationally.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

Now we are reading of polls in which a disproportionate number of Democrats are polled. Obviously such slanted polls result in slanted results seeming to indicate the Democrats' candidates are pulling ahead. Why slant the polls? Because everyone loves to say they voted for a winner, until four years later, when they seem embarassed to say anything more than "I'm voting for a winner...this time."


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 9 months ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

How true the last paragraphs of this 2012 Hub turned out to be! Gridlock until two years later and the mid-term elections, and still gridlock with a President Obama still defying the will of the people's elected Congress. What will we get in November 2016? It cannot be "more of the same" or can it?

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