Here We Go Again!: Will Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina Voters Really Decide The 2012 Presidential Election?

Is it still far too early to predict who wins in 2012?

Which state's voters will actually "make the difference"?
Which state's voters will actually "make the difference"? | Source

And what about the very real effects an unpredictable can have?

With still six months to go before Election 2012, the pundits, acknowledged experts, and political savants are all at it again!

“34 or 35 states’ electors are already in the bag, so much so that these last months will be concentrated on the few remaining states which will determine the outcome of the presidential election in 2012." is one prognostication I heard recently.

Of those astute enough to know that there are still “unpredictables” any one of which could sway the outcome between Barack Hussein Obama and Willard Mitt Romney, some nonetheless pin the outcome on the voters in just four of the remaining 15 states and the District of Columbia (the latter having 3 votes in the Electoral College where the deciding votes will ultimately be cast.)

If the experts are correct, local political advertising in nearly 80% of states will be concentrated on congressional races which are critical to control of the U. S. House of Representatives and U. S. Senate. The heavy number of political phone calls may be reduced to appeals for donations, and polling of voter sentiments related to those congressional races.

Voters already fatigued by the political intrusions into their daily lives during the Republican Primaries battles, can catch their breath and hope for some relief before Obama and Romney go at it "tooth and nail."

On the other hand, voters in the predicted “swing states” with high percentages of undecided voters, can expect the bombardments to increase as “the days dwindle down to a precious few” and until the undecided percentages dwindle down too.

Thus far, the experts expect Romney’s choice of a Vice Presidential Candidate to have little impact on the final results. Far more feel that the final results will depend on how successful each campaign is in framing the bases for comparing Romney and Obama. For example, will the debate be about Obama’s performance as president, or on the effectiveness of his attacks on Romney? Will the debate focus on the jobs Romney created and saved while at Bain or the other individuals who lost their jobs as a result of Bain's actions?

Virginia has 13 electoral votes. Ohio has 18 electoral votes. Iowa has 6 electoral votes. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes. Those four states’ electoral votes would have accounted for just 52 of the 141 votes some experts called “in play.” If the 141 total was valid, then the 22 states that some other experts expected to be “up for grabs” almost six months before November 6, 2012 would play the deciding factors in an election which then was “still too close to call.”

And then, don’t forget the “unpredictables” which even the experts knew could sway the outcome to one candidate or another.

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© 2012 Demas W. Jasper All rights reserved.







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Comments 18 comments

cleaner3 profile image

cleaner3 4 years ago from Pueblo, Colorado

Sir this is my opinion. the presidency only matters as what happens in the congressional races. if Obama is elected and the republicans take the congress we will have another 4 years of gridlock. and 4 years of stagnation with a radical leftist agenda and a conservative congreess that will only have all their changes vetoed. but if Romney wins and the republicans take the congress we will see the country explode with incentives and investment and businesses will start to hire and expand because they know we have a true capitalist in charge which has always made our country go. now all the bush critics will start to say going back to the same, but bush was not really a capitalist which is what we really need . after all can anybody really say that Obama has moved us forward.? he has led the most corrupt administration since our country began.

he has spent more money in 4 years than bush spent in 8 years! the congressional elections are really more important than the president for he can only do what the congress lets him. thats why Obama's budget was voted down, TWICE, I said TWICE by his own party. can anyone refute that? that in and by itself is very dammning!

this is just my opinion. would like to hear from the other side with logc not blather.


ib radmasters profile image

ib radmasters 4 years ago from Southern California

The real problem with politics and elections is that we can predict so much about it even six months before the election.

This means that the election process is the core of the problem. it is time for a new election process paradigm. This process is antiquated and may have been workable with the original thirteen states, but now with over thirty seven million people in California alone. Having only two senators to represent the people is not enough. Yes, the representatives are numerous, but then the stop gap is the Senate.

Also consider that if both Senators for California are both from the same party, then who is representing the voters of the other party.

just a thought..


cleaner3 profile image

cleaner3 4 years ago from Pueblo, Colorado

if that is what the majority want that is the democratic process, isn't it?

California has been losing people because the state is bankrupt. the most liberal state in the nation and they are raising taxes? so if America can see the reality, this should be a lesson to all americans of Obama's intent to raise taxes. California better hope they fall into the ocean for soon, they will be hit with a sunami of bankruptcy, thats what they get for electing someone as nancy pelosi, please!!! .(you must pass the bill to see what is in it). no wonder they are hemmoraging people , they have the hightest taxes in the land.

Good luck there, this is reap what they sow.


Dr Billy Kidd profile image

Dr Billy Kidd 4 years ago from Sydney, Australia

The filibuster record shows that Rebpulican Senators representing just 20% of the American population have blocked ever Obama initiative since 2010. That started when MItch McConnel said there'd be nothing further done. So, I don't want to hear anyone talking about a representative government--unless you think Obama is the anit-Christ and those senators were sent from God.


cleaner3 profile image

cleaner3 4 years ago from Pueblo, Colorado

and Harry reid has no blame ! please! he won't even take up obama's bills. there is blame to go around. after the election we will have a real government. the senate is run by Harry Reid if you know politics you would know that nothing happens unless the leader brings it up . know your facts. how some parts of this country elect these people is so bad. we need term limits to get rid of these dinosaurs that don't want change they want the status quo, same old corrupt politics.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

Good vigorous discussion here, but nobody even said the topic is interesting? How can that be?


cleaner3 profile image

cleaner3 4 years ago from Pueblo, Colorado

a topic is great, when you have a good discussion sir. i started my discussion by saying that the presidential race would not be that important, the congrssional races are far more important then the presidential race. we need a republican congress of free market capitalists in this country where regulations that close businesses are stopped in their tracks.

great hub, we need more like this topic to see where the country stands.


ib radmasters profile image

ib radmasters 4 years ago from Southern California

Cleaner

California isn't losing people, maybe some business but definitely not people.

The weather here offsets the miserable government.

I disagree with your comment, about the majority, It may be the majority that votes, and in California we don't even know who is voting, it could be some of the ten million illegal aliens.

Nancy Pelosi is a representative, and she only has to win her district, yet the entire state has to pay for that one.

California is a microcosm of the country, and as the country goes so does Californian. California and NY have the most liberals in the country, and they are the reason why the country and not just California has fallen down the well.

Cleaner3, you must be joking that Republicans can help.

Both parties have had their turn at the steering wheel and neither have a straight forward direction.

Free with little to no regulations is what broke the economy in 2008.

Yes, there are regulations that don't help, and California has a lock on them. But, the bigger problem is super conglomerates that are becoming Super Monopolies. A monopoly is the best form of business for profits, and the worst form for consumers, because there is no competition.

Most of the backbone of America was the small businesses, and the super companies have broken that back. The super companies then ship most of their business off shore.

Right now, the country is standing in neck high poo ppo, and the 2012 election really won't help.

California also has one of the highest prices for gasoline in the country. It also has the most vehicles, and vehicle miles for any state. They have also decided to have a higher standard for air quality than the federal government. This means less gasoline available due to less refineries that have their special formula. This in turns increases the price, by artificially lowering the supply.


picklesandrufus profile image

picklesandrufus 4 years ago from Virginia Beach, Va

we are already being bombarded with ads in Virginia. sigh...interesting topic and one that will certainly get a lot of comments.


Dr Billy Kidd profile image

Dr Billy Kidd 4 years ago from Sydney, Australia

The 2012 presidential election hits a reset button when the Romney-Rubio ticket hits the street after the July Convention. Even California could turn into a swing state, when 18% of the voters suddenly switch to Romney. That takes place after the Supreme Court outlaws Obamacare, but not before $2 billion in negative ads show Obama and the devil walking side by side. So the idea of 4 swings states is ... so yesterday.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

Last I heard the Republican Convention is in August. The Democrats will hold theirs in North Carolina? Where will the Republican Convention be? Here is a campaign blurb on Mitt Romney from his Mitt Romney 2012 Site:

· After going to both Harvard Business School and Harvard Law School simultaneously, he passed the Michigan bar, but never worked as an attorney.

· As a venture-capitalist, Romney's first major business deal involved investing in a start-up office supply company with one store in Massachusetts that sold office supplies. That company, called Staples, now has over 2,000 stores and employs over 90,000 people.

· Romney or his company Bain Capital (using what became known as the "Bain Way") would go on to perform the same kinds of business miracles again and again, with companies like Domino's, Sealy, Brookstone, Weather Channel, Burger King, Warner Music Group, Dollarama, Home Depot Supply, and many others.

· Got your calculators handy? Let's recap.

· Volunteer campaign worker for his dad's gubernatorial campaign 1 year.

· Unpaid intern in Governor's office 8 years.

· Mormon missionary in Paris 2 years.

· Unpaid bishop and stake president for his church 10 years. No salary as president of the Olympics 3 years.

· No salary as MA governor 4 years.

· That's a grand total of 28 years of unpaid service to his country, his community and his church. Why? Because that's the kind of man Mitt Romney is.

If someone has anything similar on Obama, I'll put that in here, too. Any takers for a side-by-side comparison?


cleaner3 profile image

cleaner3 4 years ago from Pueblo, Colorado

he was acommunity organizer, isn't that a great thing to show how a man who took millons from wall street and green companies became the president . now he has paid off his cronys in the green industries. this govt is even trying to reclassify workers into the green category so they can say they have created green jobs for the economy , ask timothy gietner the biggest crook in the usa who was a tax cheat. he is an idiot. i could do better than him. look at his cabinet, it is the worst in history except for Hillary. who if she listened to her husband would be president. we need change for real, we need to throw out all incumbents and start over with some honest people . but we have no chance at that.


ib radmasters profile image

ib radmasters 4 years ago from Southern California

bye bye


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

The steel company that Bain shut down was the victim of China (not Romney and Bain). When Geneva Steel in Utah was forced out of business, guess who bought their latest equipment? China. Even with Hillary, Obama has not ended their unfair currency valuation of the renminbi which makes US companies unable to get the fair trading status they deserve. China's notorious patent and copyright violations have continued throughout the Obama presidency, and his borrowing from China continues to add to our National Debt and weaken our country.


Two Minute Review profile image

Two Minute Review 4 years ago from Pennsylvania, United States

The four states you mention, plus Florida, will give Mitt Romney the White House assuming that he holds all the states that McCain won in 2008. McCain had one narrow vicory that Romney figures to widen (Missouri), and Obama's super-close victory (North Carolina) is likely going to go to Romney quite comfortably. Voters there have been castigated for months after voting for a gay marriage ban in their constitution. You don't win votes by insulting people, and while Obama didn't fling any arrows personally, his surrogates sure did!! So to answer your question, YES, those four states will be among the five that are the decision-makers...


cleaner3 profile image

cleaner3 4 years ago from Pueblo, Colorado

wake up America, if we don't change this man in OUR office, he will destroy OUR country!!!

The Liberals are trying to bring us down. !!

We only have gotten where we are by free markets.

enough of blame bush!! lets start with a new fresh perspective, not leftist socialistic utopia's of Old European idea's.

This man lies to us right in our faces.!!

the local politics will decide where OUR country goes.

Obama can't run on his record, because it is dismal.!!!

Wake up America.!!

look at the jobless rate!!!

that should be enough right there.!


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

Two Minute Review: I think there is an even greater chance of a Romney surprise as people get to know him better and see what a fine family the Romneys have raised together. He is so nervous about doing what his dad did, say the one wrong thing that overshadows his life's accomplishments from speaking for him. The task is humanizing Mitt.

cleaner3: The liberals don't want to "take us down" as much as they seem to not know how to "lift us up." Conservatives want the highest possible "common denominator" while having the adequate safety net for those who fall on tough times. Reaching for the gold ring still has to be realistic enough for all to want to reach for it. Killing initiative and making the safety net out of gold, isn't going to cure or preserve anything. It will fragment us, just as it is doing now. "I voted for it. Give it to me! You promised!" That has been the death knell of every society such as ours. We shouldn't be electing so many lawyers We should be electing more historians!


cleaner3 profile image

cleaner3 4 years ago from Pueblo, Colorado

well written sir.

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