Iran Remains Defiant

 Next week, iran and the US and its Allies will sit down across from one another in a formal, official meeting--the first time since 1979.

Don't hold your breath. The men sitting at the table and those with power behind them and unseen were most likely the same ones who tossed out the US back in 1979, or at least, participated as students. This is sort of "deja-vu". They will relish in it and no doubt make some outlandish proclamations since it is on a "world stage" now.

Think pre-WW2 history. Maybe 1937-39. The Allies kinda did the same thing with Hitler in order to "corral" him in. They sensed a madman then, but many felt one could "reason" with the dude with political sanctions. Hitler laughed at them in private, played the PR game while cameras rolled, kept his cool. All the while, planning to invade Poland in 1939, Czechoslovakia in 1938, France 1940--need I say more?

Today,we have the Ahmadinejad factor, we have his defense minister and their revolutionary guards in Iran all spouting the death of Israel is coming soon, that Hitler's holocaust was propaganda. They fire long range missiles that can hit Israel to defy and put the West on notice. They step up the rhetoric and even tell us that the meeting in October will NOT be about Iran stopping its nuclear ambitions, which they look as a sovereign right. That is so non negotiable to them BUT they are willing to explain why they kept the newly discovered facility a secret and other mundane things to detract and defer what the West demands.

Obama will threaten the sanctions. Iran will scoff at it. Why? Russia and China. While the other nations  will put them in place, Russia may not to the extent Obama wants. China most likely will not because they are heavily invested in Iran. Bank loans, technology sales, civil contracts and the like. It is going against their interests. China and Russia have too many ties to Iran even though neither want Iran to have the bomb, both tend to feel safe from them being a target of it because of the contracts that help them and help Iran. The other countries do not.

So, at the end of the day, little will change. Since there is little change, the military option looms larger and larger, especially with Israel, with or without the US approval. The trouble is, knocking out one or two of Iran's nuke facilities will not stop them, its only a setback and more war in the Middle East from Iran's proxies, the Hezbollah in Lebanon and Gaza will be forthcoming.

Damned if you, damned if you don't.

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