Iran has the Nuclear Bomb
The UN stated that it suspects Iran is developing a nuclear warhead to be used with one of their mid-range missiles. Iran was known to have been keenly interested in this type of bomb even when it actively pursued it in 2003. Last week, Iran stated it had enriched uranium with a purity of 20%, which is close to what a nuclear bomb requires. According to US intelligence, Iran is producing it at a rate of 100 grams per day and at this rate it would take them five to seven years to have enough for a nuclear bomb. Iran is not denying what they are doing.Quite to the contrary.
Iran has 3772 centrifuges running at Natanz. Impressive, yes, but, the number is down from what they had previously indicating there are problems with obtaining the pure uranium. Obama is very concerned, as are other NATO countries and middle east nations.
So, let's say Iran creates a nuclear bomb. Now what? What exactly does the world powers do about this? Attack with military force? What repercussions worldwide would result? Let's say we attack Iran next year, before they have a bomb, odds are that not all of the suspected sites with nuclear reactors would be destroyed or damaged. I am sure Iran has other secret sites in place. The attack provokes the Islamists even more, creating even more unstable conditions. The mere fact the west attacks is a declaration of war from the Iranian perspective. All Iran has to do without using nuclear weapons is to send their non-nuclear missiles into the world's main oil supply a few times, be it, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar etc. All they have to do is to use their anti ship missiles against oil tankers whether escorted or not, to sink them. The net impact would be an environmental and economic horror on a scale we have not seen.
The West has no good options to deter Iran from acquiring the bomb, short of a nuclear attack. The Green revolution there seems to have been squashed by Iran's military that has the real power there. It is doubtful any "people's revolt" will succeed. Economic sanctions only seem to make Iran more resolute in getting the bomb. They have had them and they are still there doing what they want. Of course, Iran will never start the war because in doing so, it gives its "green revolution" legitimacy and even more power because most everyday Iranians are like anyone else and seek to avoid global problems.
So, the West needs to walk a thin line when trying to stop Iran. If we make a military strike to destroy Iran's nuclear capability, it is playing into Iran's hand and will allow them to cause mayhem wherever they want. The West will then always be one step behind- reacting.
The situation is "damned if you, damned if you don't".
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