Iran in 2013: Assassination, Nuclear Bombs, and Unrest
In the Middle East, 2013 may prove to be a turning point. More likely than not, things will become worse inside Iran and outside.
President Ahmadinejad steps down from office and in June, Iran will vote for a new president. The opposition may protest the elections as they did in 2009, when he was elected in what was called a rigged election by the Green Revolution. The real power in Iran remains firmly in Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and not Ahmadinejad, despite how Western media portrayed it. The tension between the two leaders is reported to be great, enough that make Ahmadinejad fear of an internal assassination once he leaves office. The animosity between them is said to be real and personal, although there are political and religious differences. Ahmadinejad could bring other officials down or reveal internal secrets to embarrass Khamenei. Fear in Iran's government is real and what Ahmadinejad may do before leaving office has other's on edge, especially if he firmly believes he is a dead man walking.
The resumed nuclear talks about trying to curtail Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb will be the same- nothing will change and the sanctions while they hurt, do little to stop Iran's desire. Israel said that the late Spring or Summer will be its red line. Then what? Odds are nothing will happen. The US really does not want a new war in a faraway place, Israel's attack would have minimal impact and spark a REAL war from Iran against targets in the Middle East and Persian Gulf areas.
Syria will finally end in some manner. Assad could not continue for a third year. Either the rebels win and take parts of greater Syria while Assad's alawites secure a smaller section supported by Russia to keep Assad in power and to insure their base in Syria remains. The war will rage on between those rebels supported by al-Qaeda and those of the Free Syrian Army. Even Iraq, which has not been in the news much, could face its own struggle to survive from forces within. Al-Qaeda still is present in there and the more unrest there is, the more the population will be angry.
Iran plays a pivotal role in the region-in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon. When you add a few nuclear bombs to this mix, it will be an explosive 2013.
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