Israel Under Missile Blockade: The Coming Middle East War
For years now, both Hamas and Hezbollah, two groups vowed to destroy Israel have been receiving Chinese and Iranian built anti ship missiles. Over the course of time, a this trickle of smuggling by various means has created a very nice stockpile of them. It is not difficult to see how these would be used in a next Middle East war.
From Gaza urban areas, these small and mobile units would fire under Hamas direction. From the Lebanon areas, Hezbollah would do the same in an effort to cripple incoming and outgoing Israeli shipping commerce and its own navy. While the two groups are not the best of friends by any means, they do hold the same Great Wish-that is, to destroy Israel. While the missile blockade may not to that, Israel would no doubt retaliate with an iron fist approach as it did many times before when either group tossed rockets into their land. The problem for Israel is to locate these small batteries in urban environments and destroy them without much collateral damage (civilians), which as history has shown, is impossible. As the toll mounts from the IDF warplanes and tanks attacking into urban areas, the World will no doubt blame Israel, yet forget the toll that has been taken on them.
The anti-ship missiles all can easily take out small and large ships with one hit. One can easily cripple it, if not sink it. Hezbollah, with Iranian special operations al-Quds Brigades advisors, can fire a Chinese-designed, Iranian-improved and manufactured C-802 anti-ship missile. These missiles fly barely above the horizon below radar and are hard to stop. They are very fast. Sending them in multiples of 2-5 against even a USN ship, would insure at least one would impact the target (tests have proven this).
The sinking of incoming shipping to Israels main seaports (all in range of missiles) would be the spark for the war. Once Israel responded militarily, Hamas and Hezbollah would launch its even larger arsenal of ground to group missiles across the border causing more mayhem and death. Their long range missiles can easily hit large urban areas.
The good news is that the ground to ground missiles are not that accurate usually. Unlike the ASMs, which are usually spot once the target is designated. Israel would once again have to invade lebanon or Gaza to remove either type. The war would be won by Israel no doubt within two weeks (unless others also become involved), yet, Israel would most likely lose the public opinion war (as the US did in Vietnam, Afghanistan) with the images of dead civilians. Israel would suffer some economic damage.
If Egypt or Iran became active in the war, the scale of the war would then expand exponentially and could easily spin WAY out of control.
This is a very likely scenario for a new middle east war. There are reasons for ASM missiles being sent to Hamas and Hezbollah over the years. The question is, how many do they actually have?
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