Israeli Casualties in a Combined Jihad Missile Attack: Less than 500

According to Israeli's Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, the US and Israeli policy about Iranian nuclear arms have parted ways. The Obama administration wants to wait for the escalated sanctions to work and wait until Ayatollah Khamenei announces that Iran is abandoning the NPT (nuclear non-proliferation treaty). Israel sees the issue very time sensitive because as nothing is done about it militarily, Iran is moving its nuclear equipment and uranium into underground bunkers. Once Iran completes it, that is most likely when Iran will admit they have created a nuclear bomb. Israel, feeling isolated and endangered, feels a military strike should come much sooner than later. Whether Israel would need the US help to conduct a military strike is unknown and it is possible that the US would not know about until afterwards. Israel gives Iran no more than six to eight months to complete this transfer, i.e., by June to August, 2012. They cite that Iran already has moved some of the equipment to the Fordo bunker site near Qom where Iran is about to start enriching 20-percent grade uranium to 60 percent. This would bring the program to a few weeks away from weapons grade uranium for a bomb or a warhead.

As to the fear that if Israel attack Iran's nuclear sites a regional missile war would deluge upon Israel, Barak noted that if everyone got to secured bunkers, not more than 500 lives would be lost. That is a big 'IF", also, Barak seems to be forgetting that it would not simply be several salvos of missiles but a wave of terrorist attacks as well. Hamas and Hezbollah possess some anti-ship missiles capable of sinking Israeli ships. The whole issue of Syria would be a huge question mark. A regional war could last weeks and months and become international in nature.

What seems clear is that Israel will be making its military move in the near future with or without America's help or approval.

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Hxprof 5 years ago from Clearwater, Florida

Good summary! I agree that Israel will almost certainly need to act alone.

It seems to me that Israel's spy agency (purportedly the best in the world) has its finger on the pulse of Iranian nuclear ambitions; when the time frame is narrowed and Israel has the necessary intel needed to act, I believe it will.

Last comment: I believe by the way that Iran has been responding to threats over the years that it 'probably' has a couple of nuclear devices, though not ones that can be delivered via missile. If they have a couple, they were obtained off the black market or through connections with the former Pakistani nuclear physicist. At any rate, we'll soom find out.


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perrya 5 years ago Author

I agree.

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