It's Just My Guess, Election 2012 & Terrorism:
Taking one bite at a time....
One key tactic of any and all terrorist groups is the concept of barter.
It works this way: "We have something you want (or want to avoid). In exchange, we want XYZ."
One other tenet of terrorists is: "We will do whatever we can to honor each other."
This tactic and this tenet are increasingly likely to come into play in the face of this year's US elections, the pending trials of Al Queada suspects at Guantanamo, and Al Queada's perceived need to regain some of its lessened notoriety by "making the other shoe drop."
So far, in the approaching eleventh year since the infamous and coordinated attacks of 9/11/2001, Al Queada has been strengthening its positions in Yemen and in Pakistan, while looking for the right roles to play in Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, and Afghanistan. In any of those countries a spectacular strike inside America would further Al Queada's aims and recruitment of terrorists worldwide.
It's just my guess, but I expect that Al Queada has already planned or is actively planning such an event for September 2012. The Guantanamo trials lend themselves to that timing, as do the presidential debates, the 9/11 anniversary, and the draw down in US troop strength in Afghanistan.
If one objective is the "rescue" of some of their members in Guantanamo, then a spectacular hostages-for-prisoners exchange (the barter tactic combined with the "honor our own" tenet) is one likely scenario. The seizing of hostages allows this scenario to be played out almost anywhere in the world, but the nature of the hostages would have to be as "elite" as the "elite" nature of the prisoners being bartered for.
While Al Queada would likely settle for any attack inside the US, the more spectacular the better from their standpoint. For example in this regard, recall that the first attempted bombing at the Twin Towers was largely unsuccessful and led to the events of 9/11/2001. Now recall that except for an Egyptian penetration of Al Queada, a bombing of one or more of the tunnels connecting New York City with the world beyond might well have been carried out. If history is a guide, planning for such an attack was only frustrated not dismissed. Such an event in the shadow of the United Nations would certainly equate to a "second shoe" event of horrible proportions.
Similarly, there have been unexplained sightings of suspicious activities at the Tooele Army Depot where some 45% of the US stockpiles of especially hazardous war materials including nerve gases are stored, and at large dams in several states which are still of serious concern to Homeland Security.
Recent reports have been published stating that, before his elimination by US Navy Seals, Osama bin Laden had ordered the assassination of President Obama and General Petraeus. Such an attack against them, or any national-level leaders in the US would capture world headlines and could be claimed as retribution for the bin Laden raid in Pakistan.
It is a truism that "it is always easier to attack than to defend."
The US these days is ever vigilant, for it cannot afford to relax. So far US counter terrorism has been up to the challenges since 9/11/2001, but in some cases "only just equal." A bomb to be shipped from Yemen was intended to bring down a UPS cargo plane, the failed shoe bombing of an international flight, some arrested domestic terrorists including the alert frustrating of a plot to create havoc at LAX, and the arrest of the originator of an attempted car bomb in Times Square the alarm for which was raised by an alert street merchant. Some would argue that those failed attempts were "too close for comfort" and could too easily have been carried out successfully.
As Americans tend to do, we want to go back as quickly as possible to the "normal" lives we are accustomed to. These are "abnormal" times, and likely to remain so, which is why we are investing so heavily in counter terrorism and alertness.
It's just my guess, but from now on that alertness will require that we set aside "normal" living and remain vigilant, wherever we are and whatever we are doing. Our eyes and ears can make a difference.
Don't let up now!
© 2012 Demas W. Jasper All rights reserved.
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