It's Just My Guess, Election 2012 & Terrorism:

Taking one bite at a time....

The hidden agenda....
The hidden agenda.... | Source

One key tactic of any and all terrorist groups is the concept of barter.

It works this way: "We have something you want (or want to avoid). In exchange, we want XYZ."

One other tenet of terrorists is: "We will do whatever we can to honor each other."

This tactic and this tenet are increasingly likely to come into play in the face of this year's US elections, the pending trials of Al Queada suspects at Guantanamo, and Al Queada's perceived need to regain some of its lessened notoriety by "making the other shoe drop."

So far, in the approaching eleventh year since the infamous and coordinated attacks of 9/11/2001, Al Queada has been strengthening its positions in Yemen and in Pakistan, while looking for the right roles to play in Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, and Afghanistan. In any of those countries a spectacular strike inside America would further Al Queada's aims and recruitment of terrorists worldwide.

It's just my guess, but I expect that Al Queada has already planned or is actively planning such an event for September 2012. The Guantanamo trials lend themselves to that timing, as do the presidential debates, the 9/11 anniversary, and the draw down in US troop strength in Afghanistan.

If one objective is the "rescue" of some of their members in Guantanamo, then a spectacular hostages-for-prisoners exchange (the barter tactic combined with the "honor our own" tenet) is one likely scenario. The seizing of hostages allows this scenario to be played out almost anywhere in the world, but the nature of the hostages would have to be as "elite" as the "elite" nature of the prisoners being bartered for.

While Al Queada would likely settle for any attack inside the US, the more spectacular the better from their standpoint. For example in this regard, recall that the first attempted bombing at the Twin Towers was largely unsuccessful and led to the events of 9/11/2001. Now recall that except for an Egyptian penetration of Al Queada, a bombing of one or more of the tunnels connecting New York City with the world beyond might well have been carried out. If history is a guide, planning for such an attack was only frustrated not dismissed. Such an event in the shadow of the United Nations would certainly equate to a "second shoe" event of horrible proportions.

Similarly, there have been unexplained sightings of suspicious activities at the Tooele Army Depot where some 45% of the US stockpiles of especially hazardous war materials including nerve gases are stored, and at large dams in several states which are still of serious concern to Homeland Security.

Recent reports have been published stating that, before his elimination by US Navy Seals, Osama bin Laden had ordered the assassination of President Obama and General Petraeus. Such an attack against them, or any national-level leaders in the US would capture world headlines and could be claimed as retribution for the bin Laden raid in Pakistan.

It is a truism that "it is always easier to attack than to defend."

The US these days is ever vigilant, for it cannot afford to relax. So far US counter terrorism has been up to the challenges since 9/11/2001, but in some cases "only just equal." A bomb to be shipped from Yemen was intended to bring down a UPS cargo plane, the failed shoe bombing of an international flight, some arrested domestic terrorists including the alert frustrating of a plot to create havoc at LAX, and the arrest of the originator of an attempted car bomb in Times Square the alarm for which was raised by an alert street merchant. Some would argue that those failed attempts were "too close for comfort" and could too easily have been carried out successfully.

As Americans tend to do, we want to go back as quickly as possible to the "normal" lives we are accustomed to. These are "abnormal" times, and likely to remain so, which is why we are investing so heavily in counter terrorism and alertness.

It's just my guess, but from now on that alertness will require that we set aside "normal" living and remain vigilant, wherever we are and whatever we are doing. Our eyes and ears can make a difference.

Don't let up now!

__________

© 2012 Demas W. Jasper All rights reserved.



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Comments 12 comments

Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

There are enough potential surprises which could possibly play out during the remaining days until November 6, 2012, that as far as I am concerned, "all bets are off." Terrorism's ugly head is one of them.


cleaner3 profile image

cleaner3 4 years ago from Pueblo, Colorado

Dear sir, i am more worried about how the current people in power would react to any kind of circumstance that could happen not only from terrorists but from the radicals within. As certain statements from the president ,towards the judicial branch of our govt. are worrisome If the healthcare law is overturned by the court and the coming election is close and has to be determined by the court, would this be the excuse used by the radicals and the govt to make events towards a power grab? We must be vigilante not only from events outside of the country but also from within.!! just my opinion.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

Threats to our liberties from any source are certainly of immense cncern. We came close with problems during the Nixon administration. F. Roosevelt packed the court but wasn't able to control it completely. Third terms have been legislated against (except for Congress which will never approve limits on their own terms!) Now the Super PACs threaten with their distorted influence. Yes, "absolute power corrupts absolutely." Voters need to enact their own term limits on their own congressmen.


Amy Becherer profile image

Amy Becherer 4 years ago from St. Louis, MO

I do not have the strong history background you do, Perspycacious, which is my own fault and unfortunately an absolute disadvantage, because what we don't learn from history we are doomed to repeat. It is reassuring to know that there are many writers here, like you, who look back to advise caution ahead.

Recently, the news spoke of a near miss for General Petraeus as he landed in Afghanistan by a suicide bomber. It seemed the news downplayed the event. I've seen more coverage today on the Good Friday tornado in St. Louis a couple of years ago than I did of the recent Petraeus close call.

I agree with you that Americans must sleep with one eye open with today's threats. I still haven't gotten over Homeland Securities miserable failure with Katrina and I put more faith in the vigilance of average citizens.

Great read, Perspycacious. The facts show a far more dangerous world today, traveling beyond the imagination of any fiction.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

Amy Becherer: My dear Amy, thank you for gracing one of my Hubs again. We can all learn from each other, just as you and I do. Some things such as Gang Warfare and Terrorism just aren't funny and need to be better understood and dealt with, but there is time for the funny sides of life, too, and for feelings. You do a great job and I enjoy your Hubs as well as your comments and friendship.


Credence2 profile image

Credence2 4 years ago from Florida (Space Coast)

Ok, Perspycacious, your point is well taken. There seems to be so many natural holes in our security even now that the fact that we have not experienced a 9/11 assault has been just a matter of luck. For example, how much of the shipping that arrives at our shores is actually inspected? The best we an do is provide a deterrent.

As one poster mentioned, the political climate domestically is so contentious, what will the extremist elements, particularely those on the right do if their ambitions for 2012 election fail to materialize?


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

Credence2: Points well taken. I'm not concerned so much about our political extremists as I am about the world's political extremists, and that is a full-time job. Those charged with the internal extremes are up to the task in my opinion.


phdast7 profile image

phdast7 4 years ago from Atlanta, Georgia

Excellent, timely, and well written reminder of what happened, what could well happen again, and what is at stake for all of us. We need to stay vigilant, not cowering in fear, but aware and ready to respond if need be. Thank you for being one of the watchmen. Blessings. SHARING


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

phdast7: Thanks especially for the sharing. Writing and publishing is only the initial part of "getting the word out." The recent incident is warning enough. South Yemen is a hotbed of terrorist activity, literally a cancer in the world's system, a cancer of conscience-less people. At West Point cadets are still taught "The Spirit of The Bayonet" which is "Kill or be killed." As much as Americans currently disapprove of foreign intervention, it seems an appropriate time for "Operation Bayonet."


rahul0324 profile image

rahul0324 4 years ago from Gurgaon, India

I am not into politics but I found it interesting to read!


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

rahul0324: An "Interesting read" is what this HubPages thing is all about...though beauty can enter in as often as it wants to. Thanks for stopping by.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

An airliner bomb was intended to tell the world that Al Queada is still carrying out its original goals. Al Shabab is Al Queada also, but Osama cautioned them not to call themselves that too early and attract too much attention for the USA. It is very clear who they are.

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