This is not Egypt. It is not Tunisia. It is not Bahrain.
Libya, should it end up free from the dictator Gadaffi, will probably occur from the result of Gadaffi being assassinated or his own suicide. He is committed to destroying the nation that he thinks is his if he cannot be its leader. Unlike the other countries, Gadaffi, is taking the strong arm approach. His "men in yellow hats" are soldiers dressed as civilians and paid to maim or scare the protesters demanding freedom. He is paying many others bonuses to keep him in power, keep bodies from public view.
There is a dedicated core that support him mainly because they are in fear of change. The military, so far, has defected or refused to carry out orders to kill Libyans. Tanks and other weapons have remained in their military bases. If the military supports Gadaffi, it will be a bloody mess and Tripoli, its capital, will remain in his control. Citizens of the city remain in their homes out of fear. This is not the case with the eastern half of the country, Benghazi, is no longer under Gadaffi, as are many other cities.
Of course, if the Libyan army sides with the populace, Gadaffi is history, but numerous splinter groups could remain under his control resulting in a civil war. Gadaffi is not leaving without a fight, this is his country. Other scenarios could be US hostages or terrorists or others destroying or seizing control of its oil fields. Either one would pose serious issues for the outside world.
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