Margins of Error

The modern "science" of predicting elections....

Do I know what they know, or only what they tell me?
Do I know what they know, or only what they tell me? | Source

Tell me what you think, but don't say you know it!

They are doing it again!

The political pundits are predicting which states are "a lock," "leaning," and "up for grabs!"

They base their prognostications on a plethora of polls for which poll takers dutifully list each poll's "margin of error."

How ridiculous!

The polls and the poll-scanning pundits themselves are basing what they spew out on a presumption that everything remains as it is right now, 200+ days before a single person shows up on Election Day and enters a voting booth to vote!

Their "margin of error" by that time can be huge!

They forget their own histories. Polls and pundits were so sure that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in their election contest, that papers were already out on the streets with the wrong results! And, they were printed on the very day of the actual voting!

Sad to say, many voters are fickle. They love underdogs. They want to label candidates. The current primaries are showing rapid rises for some candidates and precipitous falls for others. Potential voters laugh over "foot in the mouth" mistakes and memory lapses as if one trip determines the outcome of this marathon.

I appreciate good analyses and insights, but what gives with the crystal balling?

Outstanding men and women have been trying hard to gain voter support for the current marathon. Super PACs which Congress has failed to legislatively control are distorting these candidates' backgrounds and messages. We little guys who will go into the voting booths in November are being fed a steady stream of rubbish and innuendo designed to sway us into making judgements now before the real issues have even been fully defined.

Oh, yes, there will be voters who have already "locked in" their pro and anti votes, even without reading a newspaper or magazine, and while tuning out the debates, and the Super PACs drivel, the polls, and the pundits.

Count those sad excuses for "voters" and do your best to reach them to bring them to reason, but spare me the rhetoric that claims to tell me "this is the way it will be in November."

Admit that the fickle voters far outnumber the "locked in" ones, and that the real "margin of error" rests with the informed voters who are still informing themselves on the real issues and potential leaders who will be the final candidates for the highest office in the land.


Copyright 2012 Demas W. Jasper All rights reserved.


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Comments 8 comments

breakfastpop profile image

breakfastpop 4 years ago

Very wise piece of writing. With 24 hour "news" coverage the pundits fill the airwaves with garbage and it shows. What we need is an informed electorate, but I doubt that we will ever realize that goal. It seems that minds can be changed if a candidate plays the sax or sings a little tune. We're simply not that demanding.


Michele Travis profile image

Michele Travis 4 years ago from U.S.A. Ohio

Very good hub. One thing voters should do is research. That is not hard. It can even be googled. Look up the candidate and find out what he/she voted for or against. Look at the activity the candidate has done or has not done, then write all of it down. That way it is easy to remember. Take it with you when you vote. Ok, I am not telling you what to do, it is just what I do. And as for the news. They just think we are stupid.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

Where ther's life there's hope. The fault lies with public education and the elimination of Civics as a course. The hope is that our computer-savvy younger voters will actually examine the issues, if anyone ever frames them clearly. Did you add your "Top 10" issues for the 2012 Election?


Michele Travis profile image

Michele Travis 4 years ago from U.S.A. Ohio

Sorry, have only been focusing of a few. The president and a few here in Ohio. I will do that. We do need to add to education courses. so many people under 25 or so, are just playing on facebook, or texting each other. Thank you for this hub, you just helped one more person. I hope more people read this.


ib radmasters profile image

ib radmasters 4 years ago from Southern California

I totally agree with you about the polls and the media. The media with their polls are also shaping opinion for the tens of millions of sheeple, sheep disguised as people.

My personal opinion is that the November Election will not help the country out of its collapse, no more so than the 2008 election.

The reason is that history has shown that in the last fifty years or more, the change of political control between the Democrats and the Republicans has resulted in a zero sum movement.

We didn't get to this pathetic condition of this country through a few elections, but elections over the last fifty years.

Take the current rapid price increase in the price of fuel at the pumps. This was recently caused by Iran punishing us and Europe by cutting their oil output. This is no different than in the 1970s when the Middle East Oil Producers wanted to teach us a lesson about siding with Israel.

Yet, no Congress, and No President since the 1970s did anything to change our depended on foreign oil. The dependence is still in full force, and it is both an economic, and national defense threat to this country.

BTW, the failure of the Congresses, and Presidents to act on removing dependence on foreign oil has resulted in the US being involved in what should have been only local Middle East problems.

The bottom line is that as long as the voters have party loyalty as opposed to voting in people that will change the system, then the elections won't change the result.

Einstein's definition of insanity was, "doing the same things, but expecting different results". By that definition the US Voters are Totally Insane.

Thanks


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

I took Congress to task this morning, too. 10% approval rating! Oh, but it couldn't refer to my own members of Congress, right? Sad tale of privileged under performers who have failed to lead this nation.


dahoglund profile image

dahoglund 4 years ago from Wisconsin Rapids

I have not determined who I like yet, they all have good points and bad one.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond Author

dahoglund It might even be possible that by November you will have to choose the better of two candidates you will feel are still "out of their depth", and from among others for your representative and senator(s) who aren't an ideal choice either. We get the next 200+ days to exercise the collective wisdom of this nation of ours. May God grant that we use the time, and use our votes for the best possible outcome.

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