Margins of Error
The modern "science" of predicting elections....
Tell me what you think, but don't say you know it!
They are doing it again!
The political pundits are predicting which states are "a lock," "leaning," and "up for grabs!"
They base their prognostications on a plethora of polls for which poll takers dutifully list each poll's "margin of error."
The polls and the poll-scanning pundits themselves are basing what they spew out on a presumption that everything remains as it is right now, 200+ days before a single person shows up on Election Day and enters a voting booth to vote!
Their "margin of error" by that time can be huge!
They forget their own histories. Polls and pundits were so sure that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in their election contest, that papers were already out on the streets with the wrong results! And, they were printed on the very day of the actual voting!
Sad to say, many voters are fickle. They love underdogs. They want to label candidates. The current primaries are showing rapid rises for some candidates and precipitous falls for others. Potential voters laugh over "foot in the mouth" mistakes and memory lapses as if one trip determines the outcome of this marathon.
I appreciate good analyses and insights, but what gives with the crystal balling?
Outstanding men and women have been trying hard to gain voter support for the current marathon. Super PACs which Congress has failed to legislatively control are distorting these candidates' backgrounds and messages. We little guys who will go into the voting booths in November are being fed a steady stream of rubbish and innuendo designed to sway us into making judgements now before the real issues have even been fully defined.
Oh, yes, there will be voters who have already "locked in" their pro and anti votes, even without reading a newspaper or magazine, and while tuning out the debates, and the Super PACs drivel, the polls, and the pundits.
Count those sad excuses for "voters" and do your best to reach them to bring them to reason, but spare me the rhetoric that claims to tell me "this is the way it will be in November."
Admit that the fickle voters far outnumber the "locked in" ones, and that the real "margin of error" rests with the informed voters who are still informing themselves on the real issues and potential leaders who will be the final candidates for the highest office in the land.
Copyright 2012 Demas W. Jasper All rights reserved.
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The History of Elections
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