Slippery Slopes

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By: Wayne Brown

The question quickly coming to the forefront of the Democratic side of the aisle looks toward the 2012 election cycle. Based on the outcome of the mid-term 2010 elections, the message for the Democrats is not a good one. At the same time, the potential for re-election of President Obama seems quite slim based on the current level of his popularity with the American voter. One thing is sure, if the Democrats stay with the current circumstance and direction, 2012 can only be forecast as a downhill slide for the Democrats. On that basis, I believe you can look for the following items to occur over the course of 2011.


First and foremost, Obama and the Democrats must stimulate their voter base. In order to accomplish that step, something must change significantly. An Obama/Biden ticket for re-election will not likely fly to a successful outcome. The President will need a new running mate to get out the vote. Look for a drastic move which many have, up to this point, seen as impossible. Look for the announcement of an Obama/Clinton ticket prior to the campaign season. This will not come quickly for two reasons. One, the deal is not yet made to Hilary’s satisfaction, and two, there will be a waiting period to see how much success the Republicans have with their efforts in turning the economy around and managing down government spending.


Hilary Clinton has said in the past that she would not run on a ticket as a vice-presidential candidate. I think that is still her position at heart but she must be taking a realistic look at what is happening to her opportunity and her party at this point in history. Looking closely, she can see that she has no chance in 2012 unless she takes an opposing position to Obama, the incumbent, for the Democratic nomination. I think that possibility is there if Congress goes into a gridlock and things settle into the status quo over the next year. Gridlock will make Obama a one-term wonder and seeking the nomination for the Democratic candidate will be open game.


If Hilary passes on seeking the nomination or taking the VP slot, at best her next chance is the 2016 cycle. In order to be viable in that race, she has to stay in the public eye. So she has to make a choice between taking the VP slot, seeking the status quo as Secretary of State on the chance that Obama can win without her, or sitting out for four years with little political visibility.


At the same time, do not discount the Soros effect. George Soros will bring pressure to bear on Clinton to join the 2012 ticket in the VP slot. The promise of the 2016 nomination and the financial support of Soros and all his manipulative organizations to funnel cash into her campaign coffers will be the clincher which brings her on board. In the end, Hilary will realize that this is her best path to the Oval Office in 2016. She will also realize that this is best chance to invigorate the Democratic base and regain ground lost in 2010. If not, her party may lose out altogether further sinking her chances in 2016.


There is a factor to consider here that will make this move even more effective. That factor is the Republican response in two areas. First, by early 2012, it should be apparent whether or not the Republicans will have any success at revitalizing the economy and getting job growth back on track. If that upturn has not yet taken place, it will not play well for further success for the Republicans in 2012. The second area is a significant one and pivots on who the Republicans trot out for the 2012 presidential ticket. This will be a highly critical decision even if the Republicans have made headway on both the economy and job growth.


Historically, the Republican Party has not had a track record for bringing out a ticket that is strongly supported across the party. This is due in large part to the abyss within the party between the moderate conservative left side of the party and the religious, strongly conservative right side of it. On the strongly conservative side, the party is one of tradition and thinking which follows traditional lines. Look for this side of the party to push the old, well-worn conservatives with good name recognition. With the strength of the far right side of the party, it is highly possible that the Republicans will make a wrong choice especially if the party is feeling confident about their progress with the economy and jobs.


The Republicans must make the tough choices for the right presidential candidate. They must go with a pairing that has credibility with the issues of the times and also enough appeal to span some of the age barriers across the voter population. If the party trots out some of the tired old war ponies as it is prone to do, they automatically concede an edge to the Democrats in the 2012 election.


Lastly, whether Hilary Clinton joins the Democratic ticket or not, the Republicans must keep the conservative base fired with the focus on the potential damage of government-run healthcare, immigration reform, and Cap & Trade. They must continue to emphasize the dangers of a continued direction toward socialism and the continued growth of big government both in terms of spending and in terms of regulating the lives of both business and the citizens. Given re-election, Obama will continue his agenda toward a socialistic society in America and the costs of government along with deficit spending will continue unchecked. This is the message that was effective 2010 and it will still have a strong bearing in 2012.


Politics is slippery slope and always will be. The voter too often leans to the apathetic side and has a short memory at best. From that perspective, it is very much up to the Republicans to decide their own fate in 2012. Regardless of the Democratic pairing in the presidential race, the Republic Party must make the first steps of getting the economy and jobs on track, take credit for the work, and then put their best foot forward in terms of a strong and attractive Presidential hopeful.

© Copyright WBrown2010. All Rights Reserved.

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Comments 19 comments

sueroy333 profile image

sueroy333 6 years ago from Indiana

Good job condensing a fairly complicated issue down to size.

I know it can never happen, but I wish we could take the politics out of, well... politics.

Of course, a lot of people say that, but until we do, it's basically lawyer against lawyer. They both try to grab the good-looking cards, and whoever plays their hand the best wins.

Just like in the courtroom it's not about truth or justice, it's not about honesty or what's best for our country. It's about what you can get the American people to believe and rally behind.

Your hub is a really good perspective on how each team will, and perhaps should, play their hand.


Wayne Brown profile image

Wayne Brown 6 years ago from Texas Author

@sueroy333...I find it interesting that the 2010 mid-terms pretty well send the message that America wants to head in a different direction only to have to argue the position again in 2012...we do have short memories as a public. Thanks for the good words. WB


MartieCoetser profile image

MartieCoetser 6 years ago from South Africa

Politics, as religion, is surely the most interesting topic to evaluate, discuss, compare with the past and extend to the future. I find the topic interesting to read, but just don’t have the necessary information to give an objective opinion. So thanks to you and this kind of hubs you publish, I can at least contribute to a discussion in reality with one or two of your views. If you don’t mind :))))

Take care!


Wayne Brown profile image

Wayne Brown 6 years ago from Texas Author

@MartieCoetser...I am not sure that am qualified to discuss it either, Martie. I'm just too stupid to pass on the idea! LOL! Jump in there and comment. Sometimes the discussion is better than the hub! WB


Tom Whitworth profile image

Tom Whitworth 6 years ago from Moundsville, WV

Wayne,

Good political analysis. In my opinion if unemployment isn't well below 6.5% and falling fast by 2012 Obama is toast!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I doubt he will even run or if he does he wont be nominated!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Wayne Brown profile image

Wayne Brown 6 years ago from Texas Author

@Tom Whitworth...Tom, I am afraid the Republicans will be toast if something signficant does not happen with the economy and job growth within the next year. Hope not! WB


drbj profile image

drbj 6 years ago from south Florida

A well-written and well thought out hub, Wayne, that makes one think. Would be nice if all voters were required to think before voting. It would also be a first! Thanks for the summation.


Wayne Brown profile image

Wayne Brown 6 years ago from Texas Author

@drbj...based on the score, I have to wonder at this point how well received this one really is. Thanks much for your good comments. If we want to return to the status quo all we conservatives have to do is waste this coming year. WB


eovery profile image

eovery 6 years ago from MIddle of the Boondocks of Iowa

I have been listening to some republican leaders, and it appears they are not getting the message of the last election. They are still talking strong moderate republicans. The people want conservatives!!! Not liberals.

Keep on hubbing!


Micky Dee profile image

Micky Dee 6 years ago

"Given re-election, Obama will continue his agenda toward a socialistic society in America and the costs of government along with deficit spending will continue unchecked."

We will continue welfare for the rich with either Red or Blue. There are no honest politicians coming from either. This is America and welfare for corporations, gated commonalities for the rich, gated communities for the poor, more prisons for the most imprisoned nation on Earth will continue. Until America addresses the "gated community" mentality - this fantasy America will exist in the minds of voters. America, land of the free, and world's largest prison population. Thanks!


Wayne Brown profile image

Wayne Brown 6 years ago from Texas Author

@eovery....This round is certainly the Republicans to lose but if they did it would not be the first time. It seems like both parties work awfully hard at misinterpreting the message when they gain a foothold. The message is simple...do your job honestly and in a fiscally responsible manner. Had the Democrats heard that message many of them might still be in office today. WB

@Micky Dee....Maybe's it our diet, Micky. Could it be that the folks in San Francisco are right about those Happy Meals? If so, Nancy Pelosi needs to lead us to the promise land or at the very least take us on a tour of American Somoa so we can see her sweatshops firsthand! LOL! WB


TimBryce 6 years ago

The best thing that could happen to the Republicans is if Nancy Pelosi ends up as Minority Leader. That's like painting a target on yourself.


Wayne Brown profile image

Wayne Brown 6 years ago from Texas Author

@TimBryce...Amen, Tim and it also demonstrates that the Dems learned little or nothing from this past election. I keep hearing statements about how "effective" this woman is but I think they really mean "infective"! Thanks for the good comment! WB


GojiJuiceGoodness profile image

GojiJuiceGoodness 6 years ago from Roanoke, Virginia

I think you're exactly right about the future of the 2 parties. I'm curious as to who the Republicans will run for president in 2012...


Wayne Brown profile image

Wayne Brown 6 years ago from Texas Author

@GojiJuiceGoodness...personally, I would love to see a Rick Perry - Jan Brewer ticket although Perry does not claim to have presidential aspirations. I really believe the two of them could fire the Republican Party and get it moving. WB


Pamela99 profile image

Pamela99 6 years ago from United States

Wayne, I think you wrote a great summation of the state of affairs and possibilities for the next election. It is a shame that people's memories are sometimes too short.


Wayne Brown profile image

Wayne Brown 6 years ago from Texas Author

@Pamela99...Pam I almost fear the Republicans messing this up as badly as I dread seeing the policies of the Democrats return if they should fail. Voter's mind are shamefully short...they say less than nine months. By then all of this will be George Bush's fault for getting the Republicans re-elected! LOL! WB


James McV Sailor profile image

James McV Sailor 6 years ago from Northern California

Wayne, great hub. I have to dissagree with you regarding H. Clinton.... she is getting too old, and I think quite happy with being the SOS.... Mr. Obama will have to move significantly to the middle though if he hopes for re-election. As for the Republicans, they seem to be ignoring the message that the voters sent (as well as the remaining Demo's). I agree with you, the message was "get the job done, and quit playing politics". Unfortunately, the Congress is more polarized than ever and will most likely decline even further into a state of partisan gridlock (then we can throw the rest of them out)..... Of course all of the bums will be saved if the economy makes a sudden comeback (not that they will have been responsible) since we tend to forget even quicker when our pocket books are full. Check out my blog at http://jamesmcv.wordpress.com for more of my thoughts on this issue.

Keep writing, you express it all very well.


Wayne Brown profile image

Wayne Brown 6 years ago from Texas Author

@James McV Sailor....I tend to agree with you James and my gut tells me that Hilary's last real chance is the 2012. I heard Dick Morris speculating last night that she may come out for 2012 but it will be rather later after the Dem contender field forms up. I don't hear anyone saying the expect Obama to run for the nomination unopposed so maybe there will be a few ponies in the race on the Dem side...afterall enough of them are currently out of work! I will check out your blog. Thanks much for the good words. I appreciate it. WB

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