South Carolina Primary: Survivor Scenario

The electorate of South Carolina has predicted the Republican Presidential Candidate for 8 elections in a row...dating back to 1980.

With the South Carolina debates and consequent primary growing near, the contestants are busy preparing; rehearsing their lines and testing potential sound bites. A key element to those remaining, is to strike a balance of stratagem toward achieving their ultimate goal; the sole survivor.

The pretense, is to narrow the qualifying field, which eventually results in becoming a finalist. In doing so, the threat lies in overextending oneself during the process; thereby potentially risking alienating from the independent general electorate. Such is the nature and importance of establishing and sustaining equilibrium in the contest, toward attaining the definitive prize.

Here is the upcoming schedule of Events for the Great State of South Carolina:


January 14, 2012

Location: Sottile Theatre at the College of Charleston, South Carolina
8pm ET on Fox News

Sponsor: Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Congressman Tim Scott (R-SC) and Fox News

January 16, 2012

Location: Myrtle Beach Convention Center in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

9pm ET on Fox News
Sponsor: Fox News and the S.C.R.P.

January 19, 2012

Location: Charleston, SC

8pm ET on CNN

Sponsor: CNN & the S.C.R.C.

January 21, 2012

South Carolina (primary)


The question remains, can the Republican field come to a consensus and rally the splintered party factions to take on President Barack Obama?

The Debate will be relatively mild in comparison to the vicious PAC and Super PAC advertisement being locally aired in South Carolina. Newt Gingrich seems especially motivated to oust the frontrunner and presumptive favorite Mitt Romney. Mr. Romney seems to be wearing the immunity necklace given his back to back victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. He also carries the endorsement of South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

Gingrich released a 28 minutes ‘short film’ ad, identifying what he describes as the truth, exposing Romney’s shortcomings in his bid for the White House. The topics highlight Romney’s Venture Capitalist private sector experience with Bain Capital. Brutal attacks contradicting Romney’s job creation record, corporate welfare assertion and Moderate viewpoint regarding the Healthcare mandate while Governor of Massachusetts are declared.

As for Newt Gingrich, his party position of the need for a strong conservative remains unwavering and a good fit for South Carolinians. He has proclaimed, without a strong showing “he’s in deep trouble.’ In Survivor speak, ‘the tribe has spoken’; In short, throw your buff in the fire and extinguish your torch.

As for the Moderate Jon Huntsman, at best he’s looking at a visit to Redemption Island. The same can most likely be said for Social conservatives Rick Santorum and Rick Perry. The heavily evangelical southern populace may prolong their stay, given the state tagline, ‘the Belt Buckle of the Bible Belt.’

Strict Constitutionalist Ron Paul will continue to blindside the field with diametrical opposition, which may result in a top tier finish. His strong youthful supporters combined with an awareness of Constitutional attacks may play out as the equivalent of possessing the hidden immunity idol.


Comments 38 comments

gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

Thank you for checking in snurre,

It is my pleasure to make it more interesting.

Take care, be well


Snurre profile image

Snurre 4 years ago

Very interesting hub. We get this on the news here in Russia, but your insight is a lot more genuine and therefore interesting.

Thanks for SHARING


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

Thanks for the read & comment nity


nityanandagaurang profile image

nityanandagaurang 4 years ago

very nice hub


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

Credence2,

It has exceeded my wildest expectations, and still there is more to follow. CNN gets to hold the final round of debates tomorrow.

Interesting point of fact: The Iowa caucas was supposed to officially announce the winner yesterday. Apparently, there is a snag and they announced they hope to release the winner by friday.

Undoubtably, Newt & friends are gonna continue their assault given Romney's exposed glass jaw. Newt's comment, I don't want to bloody his nose, I'm going for the knockout could very well be seen in living color on prime time.

Thanks for your comments and keep in touch Cred2.


Credence2 profile image

Credence2 4 years ago from Florida (Space Coast)

You can bet that I am watching. I still think that Mitt had best not consider South Carolina a coronation. There are still many troubling characteristics about him in the view of the rank and file. He does not really propose to change much from the current administration, he is just throwing out red meat to lure them in. The thing that I am waiting for is his revelation on his latest income taxes, will be seen as a man of the people or a Thurston Howell type dandy? We talk about the 1% not paying their fair share, lets see if he is part of the problem or solution? Great Hub, Cred2


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

scuffer12345,

Of course, voting is a right, of which you choose not to participate. I suppose I approach the process differently.

I do not choose those I wish to associate with because they are flawless. In fact, they are my friends in spite of their shortcomings.

I look at voting in that same light. I don't agree on every aspect of their platform. For me to expect that, would be unrealistic.

Like your comment today , I would like what little voice I have be heard.

Thank you for giving me pause to think about my response to your comment. I don't expect everyone to agree with my point of view; at times it's enough to know a discussion has taken place.


scuffer12345 profile image

scuffer12345 4 years ago from CUYAHOGA FALLS, OH

I am 54 and not ashamed to stick by my virtues in life to do what is right just because it is the right thing to do. Therefore I do not vote for there has never been a presidential candidate in my lifetime that is Honest. many say they are honest, so honesty the word itself has lost its value, therefore I rewrote honesty, New defintion of the word from Joe - "I CHOOSE NOT TO LIE, therefore I Never have to remember what I said." it will be the truth today as it was an hour ago or a week or year. what comes out my mouth is no lie,. Maybe if politicians used my definintion and were held accoutable for what comes out of their mouths i would vote.


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

FitnezzJim,

This ABO support you speak of. I Have not heard of it. I trust it is something I should be familiar with, since you place some value to the possible outcome of a Presidential election. You have my ear Sir.


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

gmaoli,

I did hear that as well. Mr.Huntsman Sr. must have pulled the family PAC money. I think Buddy Roemer overtook him in one poll. Thanks for your comments and for playing along.


FitnezzJim profile image

FitnezzJim 4 years ago from Fredericksburg, Virginia

In the end, whoever wins will likely benefit from the tide of ABO supporters.

Remember in November 2012.


gmaoli profile image

gmaoli 4 years ago from South Carolina

I live in SC and I think your analysis of the candidates chances of the primaries here are pretty spot on. I actually heard just yesterday, in fact, that Jon Huntsman dropped out of the race, so he probably figured SC was just a place to be his Redemption Island, as you say. If that's all it's going to be for a candidate, there's not much point going on with the race, is there?


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

That it may sway voters from preconceived choices...that sounds like a positive result of gathering information, the process of making an informed decision. It effects not only undecideds, but lifelong card carrying Republicans. Thanks for your positive feedback poetvix.


poetvix profile image

poetvix 4 years ago from Gone from Texas but still in the south. Surrounded by God's country.

I really like how you included when all of this will take place so I can set the DVR. I understand they have to kind of go at each other to get it down to one, but, the flip side of that is that they give the democrats more ammunition and it may sway the undecided in the other direction. I guess it's like most things, a double edged sword.


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

b.Malin

It's refreshing to see confidence in this political atmosphere. Thanks for your enthusiasm and your comments.


b. Malin profile image

b. Malin 4 years ago

Romney is the one, and I hope he is Supported all the way to the Nomination, and the Presidency, which he WILL WIN. Good Informative Hub Glfalcone. I look forward to Following your Hubs.


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

Hey whats up Mio Cid?,

As an Independent, all are welcomed. Third Party candidate? Why not.

Does Clinton as VP lock it up for the Dems?

Anyway, thanks for yor comments.It should be interesting to say the least.


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

I'm still not convinced Chris Cristie wouldn't accept VP. If nothing else, it sets up 2016. What about Tim Pawlenty?

Really, you like Santorum to finish in the money? I'd like to see Florida get interesting.

Top 3 picks for S.C.: Romney, Paul, Gingrich...

Anyway, thanks for stopping by. Thanks for your input and positive feedback. Take care till next time.


mio cid profile image

mio cid 4 years ago from Uruguay

great hub, voted up, useful,interesting and awesome,i'm a democrat and a lefty,of all the candidates still standing I think only Gingrich has a chance of being a good president I don't agree with him on anything but he is definitely presidential material,romney is a 100% phony,unfortunatelly it looks right now he has the upper hand, but maybe we'll get lucky and have a general election between Obama and Gingrich.Huntsman would be great but he has no chance with this right wing nut dominated republican party.


tonyfischer profile image

tonyfischer 4 years ago from Southeastern Michigan

Good analysis of South Carolina. I think if Santorum can pull out a second place finish he will have a lot of monemntum going into Florida. In the southern states he will really be a strong candidate. Could be your VP nominee.


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

Fear not richfsr,

In less than 300 days it will all be over.. or will it just have begun?


richfsr 4 years ago

The whole Republican debate thing has driven me crazy. A year of debates? I have been sitting back watching who will end up as the candidate. I'm not thrilled with any of them. They are either too conservative(radical right wing) or hidden liberal, with one bordering on anarchist. As a Republican leaner, I am not seeing Presidential material.


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

Perspycacious,

Thanks for checking in. Your comments,as always,are greatly appreciated. One thing is for sure: 2012 should prove to be historic,or very interesting to say the least.


Perspycacious profile image

Perspycacious 4 years ago from Today's America and The World Beyond

Thanks Supreme Court. For what? For the SuperPACs ruling which is now putting unlimited funds into the increasingly negative, and increasingly distant (from most American voters) campaigning.

The Common Cause Organization has 400,000 members, as of Wikipedia's March 2011 summary, but its membership and available funds can't come close to keeping up with campaign inequities which have sqeezed the $5 to $25 little donor guys and gals out of their reasonable right to have an impact on the choosing of candidates, the direction of policies, and the outcome of the 2012 election. If 400,000 members, supposedly working together can't bring some sanity to the election process, is our system too far gone to save? I think this essential part of it just might be! How sad; how sad!


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

Dahlia,

Thanks for the read and positive feedback.


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

TMWNP,

I enjoyed reading your comments. I'm glad you enjoyed the piece as much as I did putting it together. Really though, it pretty much fell in place, given the state of the candidates.

Did you plan on attending the upcoming Presidential Debate?

February 22, 2012 8pm ET on CNN

Location: Mesa Arts Center in Mesa, Arizona

Sponsor: CNN and the Republican Party of Arizona

Participants: TBD (nice touch)

It's tougher to get tickets to this than the Super Bowl.


Dahlia Flower profile image

Dahlia Flower 4 years ago from Canada

I enjoyed your article. Voted up.


TheManWithNoPants profile image

TheManWithNoPants 4 years ago from Tucson, Az.

ghfalcone,

This was one sweet piece of writing. It's hard to write something based on gut feelings, but I have some gut feelings about this vetting process and the election itself. What my gut tells me is that this is going to be a Gingrich/Romney contest. So far I'm still hanging with Gingrich, but my mind is far from being made up. I am definitely not a Mit Romney fan. More gut feelings there, and that's why I'm not writing a whole lot on it. I've had to depend on my ability to read people in order to stay in business, and I just get one of those real negative feelings every time I see Romney in action. Just don't trust the guy. Ron Paul, of course, isn't a consideration, but I like Huntsman and Santorum. I still think it's going to be a battle between the two slickys.

In any case, you put this together extremely well, and the survivor analogy was awesome. Voted up awesome and interesting!

Jim


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

K. Burns Darling,

Wow, first of all, thats pretty cool. So, in essence, whomever reads your Facebook page will have access to this particular Hub.

Next; that takes on a whole different level of endorsement, which goes above & beyond the Hubpages comment section.

Thanks for the explanation. I didn't quite get the dynamic of this gestute when CoAuthorU did likewise with another one of my Hubs. Thank you, thats really Awesome of both you & CoAuthorU.

Take care and be well.


K. Burns Darling profile image

K. Burns Darling 4 years ago from Orange County, California

Shared on Facebook wall means that I added the link from your hub to my wall, when clicked on it will lead right back here to your hub.

Kristen

https://www.facebook.com/kristen.burnsdarling


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

Sueswan,

Thanks for the positive comments. If the politicians were positive, maybe there would be a little unity instead of divisiveness among the electorate.

Enjoy your weekend and thanks again for your kind words.


Sueswan 4 years ago

Hi gjfalcone

A very interesting and informative hub.

It would be refreshing to see a politician/political party that will say what they are going to do for the country rather than bad mouth their opponents.

Voted up and interesting.

Have a good weekend.


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

It hasn't hit the Arizona market too bad yet, but it is getting close. I'm not a big fan of the negativity of political campaigning. It's so divisive and distracts from the candidate position. Unfortunately, it works for those whom would rather feed on hatred and strict political affiliation. Sad.

Thanks for the positive comments Fiddleman.


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

That is so funny your mentioned that in your comments K.B.D.. I struggled with minimizing the candidates to assigning labels, instead of following the urge to go with their comprehensive specific platforms. I finally came to the conclusion it would be 2,000 words of...wait fot it...FLUFF! It's true, it definately would have lost the reader. My New Years resolution, BTW, was to shorten my hubs. I guess I should extend the resolution to shortening my replies as well.

Thank you for reinforcing my decision.Thank you for the generous feedback as well.

"Shared on Facebook wall" means exactly what? I'm not savy to that social medium. It sounds like something above and beyond the typical hub comment.

Once more, I appreciate the 'above & beyond" effort you made with respect to your feedback.

Hope to connect again real soon.


Fiddleman profile image

Fiddleman 4 years ago from Zirconia, North Carolina

Great article and may I say, I am already tired of the political mud slinging campaign advertisements flooding our local media.


K. Burns Darling profile image

K. Burns Darling 4 years ago from Orange County, California

While I know and understand the importance of exercising or right to vote, and also know that one should never vote without knowing about the candidate and the issues, I often grow impatient with the politics of it all. You've managed in this summary to lay out the particulars and weed out the unnecessary fluff, providing the pertinent information without losing my interest. Good job! Shared this on my Facebook wall, and voted up, interesting, and useful.


gjfalcone profile image

gjfalcone 4 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona Author

awayre,

Thanks for the read and positive feedback. With 3 pending debates, the negative attack ads, and the unpredictable nature of what is to come...not to mention the split delegates from both Iowa and NH. Looking forward to Florida!


awayre profile image

awayre 4 years ago from Maryland, USA

Great summary of the dynamics going into the SC primaries. At this point, Romney seems like a favorite unless, of course, the attacks against him stick, which they could. But if Romney won, it's a wrap for the Republicans.

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