The 114th Congress and 2014 Mid-Term Election: My Esoteric Predicts Ds gain from 3 to 20 Seats in House! -- NOT [213*42]

LET'S FINISH IT OFF WITH A POSTMORTEM

CLEARLY, MY ESOTERIC MISSED IT AS BAD AS the Republicans got it wrong in the 2012 election ... we made bad assumptions about the Demographics. An initial quick look at exit polls suggest where this might lie; women and young voters. Another big factor was "the economy" as seen at the retail level; the Democrats never really tried to make the case that virtually all of the economic growth, roughly 2.2% a year, has gone to the top 10% and not to Joe Sixpack, who actually needs it and worked very hard for it.

With a caveat, it doesn't look like this election was a "Red Wave" so much as a "retreat to the norm", i.e, Republicans took back seats in Red states they lost in 2012 or won in Red states that shouldn't have been contested in the first place. The caveat is the Northeast, moderate Republicans, for the most part, made gains there. This, of course, may lead to some great entertainment in the Republican House for the next two years.

Currently, the exit polls in my spreadsheet consist of 5 Blue states (3 Senate and 2 Governor), 6 what I consider Purple states (5 Senate and 1 Governor), and 10 Red states (all Senate). I will give a list of states later. I considered many different demographic areas, which will be revealed as I report on them.

The first thing that was apparent from the exit polls is that more women voted that men, just in lesser numbers, and that, like 2012, breakdown by Blue/Red/Purple show no change, i.e., Red state men and women voted Republican, while Blue state men and women voted Democratic; although votes for Scott Brown (NH) made it very close for the men. Purple states were split with men going Republican and women going with Democrats. In the tables below (when I make them) you will see the specific numbers.

I will get into much more detail shortly as I analyze the exit polls; but please keep voting in the 2016 Presidential nominee polls.

GENDER

 
MALE
FEMALE
BLUE (49%-M & 51%-W)
49%-D and 48%-R
60%-D and 36%-R
PURPLE (50%-M & 50%-W)
44%-D and 54%-R
51%-D and 47%-R
RED (48%-M & 52%-W)
35%-D and 60%-R
45%-D and 50%-R
TABLE 1 - % VOTE BY GENDER AND STATE POLITICAL ORIENTATION (Bold means in Democratic favor)

Age Groups

IN LOOKING AT THE SIX AGE GROUPS, it seems that 1) less young and old people voted and 2) the young people that did vote, voted more conservatively (because more Blue young people (18 - 29) stayed away from the poles (another reason why I don't think the candidates, especially the ones running for the House should have banned President Obama, poll numbers be damned; they showed themselves to be cowards and the results bear that out, in my opinion.)

There weren't any surprises in this demographic other than in some exit polls, the 18 - 24 and 25 - 29 age groups voted so little, they couldn't get any results in the exit surveys! I will have more to say when I get to a comparison with the 2012 exit polls.

AGE GROUPS

 
18 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 39
40 - 49
50 - 64
65 +
BLUE (6%/6%/12%/21%/36%/22%)
54%-D & 46%-R
62%-D & 37%-R
56%-D & 41%-R
51%-D & 45%-R
55%-D & 43%-R
54%-D & 44%-R
PURPLE (9%/7%/15%/18%/32%/19%)
52%-D & 44%-R
59%-D & 37%-R
49%-D & 49%-R
44%-D & 54%-R
46%-D & 52%-R
45%-D & 53%-R
RED (6%/7%/15%/19%/33%/21%)
49%-D & 47%-R
51%-D & 43%-R
46%-D & 48%-R
44%-D & 53%-R
47%-D & 50%-R
46%-D & 52%-R
TABLE - 2 VOTE BY AGE GROUP & STATE POLITICAL ORIENTATION

RACE

IT IS IN THIS CATEGORY WHERE the effects of the new restrictions on voting might or might not show up. It is also very apparent Democrats DID NOT reach the Latino voters! Not only did they turn out in smaller numbers, they voted more heavily Republican; an unbelievable 45% voted Republican in Red states ... that speaks volumes about the terrible messaging job the Democrats did. Personally, I think the Democrats made a big mistake by having President Obama hold off with his Executive Orders on immigration until after the election. That might have made a difference in states like Georgia for Senate as well as Texas and California for some House seats.

Even 9% of the blacks voted Republican in Blue states; amazing. Also surprising is how poorly Democrats did with white voters in Blue states, barely squeaking out a majority. But, what killed the Democrats in this demographic, I think, is getting whomped 55% to 45% by the Republicans in white voters in Purple states. This will become even clearer when we look at it by gender.

RACE

 
WHITE
BLACK
LATINO
OTHER
BLUE (77%/8%/8%/6%)
50%-D & 48%-W
89%-D & 9%-R
71%-D & 27%-R*
 
PURPLE (83%/8%/5%/4%)
41%-D & 57%-R
91%-D & 7%-R
70%-D & 30%-R*
 
RED (79%/14%/4%/3%)
31%-D & 64%-R
92%-D & 6%-R
51%-D & 45%-R
47%-D & 46%-R*
TABLE 3 - GROUPED BY RACE and STATE POLITICAL ORIENTATION - (* need more samples)

Race by Gender

THE REAL STANDOUT IN THE NUMBERS below is that a majority of Latino Males voted Republican. Now, I can tell you that was all in Texas because in the sample, that was the only state with a high enough percentage of Latinos voting to actually get an exit poll reading. I have always read that the National Democratic Party has abandoned Texas ... this kind of statistic tells you how foolish a decision that is.

If there is a story with the rest of these numbers, it will come in comparing them with last years results.

RACE by GENDER

 
WHITE MALE
WHITE FEMALE
BLACK MALE
BLACK FEMALE
LATINO MALE
LATINO FEMALE
OTHER
BLUE (37%/40%/3%/4%/4%/5%/7%)
45%-D & 52%-R
56%-D & 41%-R
92%-D & 7%-R
90%-D & 9%-R
83%-D & 17%-R*
89%-D & 12%-R
58%-D & 42%-R
PURPLE (42%/42%/4%/5%/3%/3%/4%)
37%-D & 60%-R
46%-D & 52%-R
89%-D & 10%-R*
94%-D & 4%-R
N/A
N/A
59%-D & 40%-R
RED (38%/40%/6%/9%/2%/2%/4%)
28%-D & 67%-R
36%-D & 60%-R
91%-D & 8%-R
94%-D & 4%-R
40%-D & 54%-R!!
54%-D & 43%-R
46%-D & 49%-R
TABLE - 4

What Do The Results of the Ideological Vote Tell Us

A LOT REALLY. IT GIVES GOOD INSIGHT INTO WHAT WENT wrong with the Democrats. In two words --- the Democrats. TABLE 5 clearly shows that in terms of which ideology voted for whom, one can see it leans toward the Democrats. The Democratic and Republican results are mirror images of each other across the Blue, Purple, and Red states. However, the Moderates obviously leaned toward the Democrats.

So, what happened? Why did the Democrats do so poorly in the end after making strong challenges in places where they should not have. Well, as many readers who don't trust statistics like to say, you can make numbers say anything and there are many people who would take a table like this and run with it, including the news media. The problem is, like with so many other statistics thrown out there (like the whole country hates Obamacare ... not really true when you dig into it) there is a bit more to the story with Table 5 and an honest commentator would tell you what it is.

The reason you can't take Table 5 to the bank with you, as interesting as it is by itself, is that it is "Unweighted" data. In this case, the percentages you see don't reflect the size of the vote of each group. And because a lot more Republicans came out to participate in the most sacred and important of an American citizens responsibilities to their country than the Democrats did, the Democrats got trounced. (Note that even though a higher percentage of Rs voted than Ds, only 33% of the country decided they were interested enough in this country to help determine its future. Disgusting, IMO)

The Republicans should be very worried about what Table 5 says and portends. It says that IF the Democrats had found the right messaging to get their voters off their asses and to the polls, there would have been a sea change as Georgia and Kentucky would have gone Blue and North Carolina would have stayed that way.

IDEOLOGY

 
LIBERAL
MODERATE
CONSERVATIVE
BLUE STATES
88%-D & 8%-R
60%-D & 36%-R
17%-D & 81%-R
PURPLE STATES
86%-D & 12%-R
53%-D & 44%-R
12%-D & 86%-R
RED STATES
83%-D & 13%-R
51%-D & 42%-R
12%-D & 83%-R
TABLE - 5

Breaking It Down Further - Gender and Party

WE WILL GET A LITTLE MORE INSIGHT when we consider how the vote split between genders within a Party. Identifying with a Party in today's political world goes a long way toward predicting who will get your vote. But, having said that, there is still a significant difference in many instances to the Party loyalty between genders; enough so where, if properly targeted, it could swing an election. In 2014. that doesn't appear to have happened.

GENDER & PARTY

 
D - MALE
D - FEMALE
I - MALE
I - FEMALE
R - MALE
R - FEMALE
BLUE
D-91% & R-7%
D-93% & R-5%
D-44% & R-50%
D-55% & R-42%
D-10% & R-88%
D-12% & R-86%
PURPLE
D-88% & R-11%
D-89% & R-10%
D-38% & R-56%
D-47% & R-48%
D-5% & R-93%
D-6% & R-93%
RED
D-86% & R-12%
D-87% & R-9%
D-33% & R-52%
D-41% & 50%
D-7% & R-90%
D-7% & R-90%
TABLE 6

How Did Perceptions About Obamacare Influence the Vote?

THE WAY I SEE IT, THE DEMOCRATS MADE A SERIOUS ERROR running away from Obamacare. I thought that before creating Table 7 and am certain of it now. With the Republicans in control of the Senate, there is a real possibility they can damage the Affordable Care Act. Repeal, of course, is out of the question, as probably is any major changes. But they can wreak havoc with its implementation, via the power of the purse, and in the process make the lives of those newly reaping its benefits miserable once again.

By the looks of Table 7, because 1) Obamacare is more popular in Blue and Purple states than it is in Red ones and 2) those who like Obamacare voted overwhelmingly for the Democrats it would seem it should have been the Democrats who would have swept the 2014 election. Obviously that didn't happen and it didn't happen, in my opinion, is because those who liked Obamacare and what it has to offer stayed home and risked it being taken away from them. To say the other way, those who dislike Obamacare and want to see it repealed are basically the only ones who were interested enough to go to the polls. Who knows, they might get their way.

FEELING ABOUT OBAMACARE

 
NOT GOOD ENOUGH
ABOUT RIGHT
HATE IT
BLUE
87%-D & 10%-R
85%-D & 12%-R
16%-D & 77%-R [42%]
PURPLE
78%-D & 20%-R
72%-D & 26%-R
15%-D & 82%-R [46%]
RED
75%-D & 19%-R
76%-D & 19%-R
18%-D & 75%-R [54%]
 
 
 
 
TABLE 7 - The percentages in brackets [ ] in the "Hate It" column is the average percent of voters who did not like Obamacare in the Blue, Purple, and Red states, respectively

The Bright Light of Economic Conditions

TABLE 8, ABOVE ALL OTHERS, SHOWS WHY REPUBLICANS did so well in the 2014 Mid-term elections. How did Clinton put it? "It's the economy, stupid!". President Clinton had the advantage of running in the second year of recovery after six years of steady economic decline followed by a short recession; the economy was improving when President Bush lost.

In the Democrats case for 2014, however, the phrase should be "it's the Perception of the economy, stupid"; for the economy had recovered from the 2008 Great Recession. The problem is, the only people who knew it were the wealthy; Joe Sixpack had seen very little of the recovery and rightly felt things were terrible. Of course, the Democrats didn't have a clue as to how to get Joe to blame the right Party for this state of affairs; which resulted in an election that returned the people responsible for economic inequality in the first place back into power.

ECONOMIC WORRIES

 
VERY WORRIED
SOMEWHAT WORRIED
NOT TOO WORRIED
NOT WORRIED AT ALL
BLUE
31%-D & 65%-R [34%]
61%-D & 37%-R [42%]
83%-D & 15%-R
No Data
PURPLE
29%-D & 69%-R [33%]
44%-D & 52%-R [42%]
70%-D & 27%-R
No Data
RED
20%-D & 71%-R [42%]
41%-D & 51%-R [35%]
68%-D & 24%-R
80%-D & 17%-R
TABLE 8 - The percentages in brackets [ ] in the "Very Worried" and "Somewhat Worried" columns are the average percent of voters who felt that way in the Blue, Purple, and Red states, respectively

The Final Demographic - Marriage and Gender

THIS TABLE OFFERS FEW SURPRISES, AT LEAST TO ME. The only data point which I thought was interesting as Red state single women. they polled a majority for Democrats.

MARRIAGE AND GENDER

 
MARRIED MEN
MARRIED WOMEN
SINGLE MEN
SINGLE WOMEN
BLUE
46%-D & 51%-R
54%-D & 43%-R
54%-D & 49%-R
67%-D & 29%-R
PURPLE
39%-D & 59%-R
47%-D & 51%-R
44%-D & 52%-R
61%-D & 37%-R
RED
33%-D & 61%-R
40%-D & 54%-R
45%-D & 48%-R
55%-D & 38%-R
TABLE 9

Was It a Republican Landslide?

IT DEPENDS ON YOUR DEFINITION OF REPUBLICAN, in my opinion. Today, the vast majority of members in the Republican Party are conservative, very conservative, or really out-there conservative. More the most part, the moderate and liberal wings of the Party, which were quite in evidence prior to 1995, have all but disappeared. So, if you believe that description, then no, I don't think it was a Republican, meaning Conservative, landslide. But, if you just limit yourself to the term Republican, then yes, it pretty much was. Here is why.

  1. Of the 36 Senate seats in play, only 10 (AK, AR, CO, GA, IA, KY, LA, MI, NC, and VA) were really contested. Of those, only 6 changed hands and all but two (CO, IA) were in what would be considered Red states (AK, AR. LA, NC) where Republicans would be expected to win.
  2. Further, only CO and NC went to what might be considered Tea Party friendly candidates. The rest appear to be ones that will work in a more bipartisan way than we are use to.

So, exactly how much of a "surprise" was it, given how much these Red States flat out hate President Obama and that three of the four are in the Deep South, that these states voted conservative? None at all, in my opinion. The vitriol against Obama and the low turnout overwhelmed the factors that I thought would keep the Senate in Democratic hands.

Let's turn to the House where all of the seats were up for "grabs". In fact, only a few of 435 seats were truly contested or the incumbent didn't run.

ANALYSIS OF CONTESTED HOUSE SEATS

 
RED STATES
PURPLE STATES
BLUE STATES
TOTAL
Dem Retired - Held By Dem
2
4
8
14
Dem Retired - GOP Won
6
1
7
14
GOP Retired - Held By GOP
12
8
6
26
GOP Retired - Dem Won
2
0
1
3
TOTALS
22
13
22
57

POINTS:

  1. Of the 22 House seats up for grabs in Red states, 14 remained with the Party they started with; 2 were Democratic and 12 were Republican
  2. Six contested conservative (Blue-dog) Democratic seats were given up to conservative Republicans while 2 conservative Republican seats switched sides to conservative, Red state Democrats
  3. Of the 13 House seats being contested in Purple states, 12 did not change Party control, but 1 Democratically controlled seat flipped in a marginally Democratic district.
  4. And of the 22 House seats challenged, 14 also kept the same Party (although Rep Grimms (R) resigned in disgrace already) while 7 formerly Democratic seats changed to Republican hands, but only 1 Republican seat returned the favor.
  5. The difference here is of the 7 new Republicans, only.

 
VICTORY MARGIN
DISTRICT BIAS
NOTES ON WINNER
PARTY IN 2008
AZ-2
0.08%
R +3
Anti-ACA, Pro-Women (sued the Pentagon, New, Mind of her own.)
 
FL-26
3%
R +4
Latino, New, Supports Senate immigration plan
Republican
GA-12
10%
R +9
Fiscal & Social Conservative
 
IL-10
3%
D +8
Fiscal Conservative, Social Moderate, Pro-Choice, Fix ACA, Member No-Labels
Republican
IL-12
>10%
Even
Fiscal & Social Conservative
 
IA-1
2%
D +5
Fiscal & Social Conservative
 
ME-2
6% (Ind took 10% of vote)
D +2
Fiscal & Social Conservative
 
NV-4
3%
D +4
Fiscal & Social Conservative
 
NH-1
4%
R +1
Fiscal & Social Conservative
Republican
NY-1
9%
R +2
Fiscal Conservative & Social Moderate, Supports Bal Budget Amend
 
NY-21
>10%
Even
Fiscal & Social Conservative
 
NY-23
>10%
D +5
Fiscal & Social Conservative but not overly so.
 
NC-7
>10%
R +13
Fiscal & Social Conservative
 
TX-23
2%
R +3
Fiscal & Social Conservative
Republican
UT-4
6%
R + 16
Tea Party
 
WV-3
>10%
R +14
Fiscal & Social Conservative
 

How Big A Conservative Blowout Was It?

Of the 16 elections where Republicans won Democratic seats:

  • 4 were in heavily Republican districts; 3 in the South plus UT
  • 5 were in Republican leaning districts; 2 in the South, 1 in Red-state AZ, 1 in a Blue-state, and 1 in NH (meaning I don't know how to classify NH)
  • 2 were in Blue-state districts where Republicans and Democrats have an equal chance of winning
  • 4 were in Democratic leaning districts; 3 in Blue-states and 1 Purple-state
  • 1 was in a heavily Democratic district, the IL-10
  • 7 1st-term Democrats lost
  • 5 were from seats where the Democratic incumbent retired
  • 3 were from seats where the Democratic incumbent held the seat 4 or more terms; 2 in Red-states and 1 in NY-1
  • 7 Red-states , 2 Purple-states, and 7 Blue-states gained Republican seats
  • 2 Red-states and 1 Blue-state gained Democratic seats.
  • 5 districts that were Even or leaned Democratically went to what appear to be Fiscal and Social Conservatives
  • 2 districts that lean slightly Republican went to Fiscal and Social Conservatives
  • 5 districts traded Conservative Democrats for Conservative Republicans
  • 4 districts went to Fiscal Conservatives and Social Moderates while 1, FL-26, is undeterminable
  • 4 seats were reclaimed by Republicans who lost them in 2012; FL-26, IL-10, NH-1, and TX-23

Given 1) the extreme dislike among Whites in the South and general unpopularity in the rest of the country with President Obama coupled with 2) the fact that the bottom 80% of Americans barely participated in the substantial economic recovery since 2009, the question is ...

"Was this a Conservative, or even Republican, blowout based on beliefs in Conservative principles?"

No, I don't think anyone can make that case. To me, a "blowout", at least an ideological one with the Right wants everyone to believes, is a big, unexpected win where it shouldn't have happened.

  • One example "ought" to be the IL-10 given its strong historical tilt toward Democrats; it turns out Republicans lost it in the 2012 election.
  • To start with 31% of the seats changed one Conservative for another Conservative.
  • On the other hand, at least 25% seats went to fiscal conservative, but socially moderate candidates.
  • 25% of the seats reverted back to Republican control after having lost it in the 2012 election

So let's count. Of the 16 seats, 4 went to fellow Conservatives, that leaves 12. Out of those, 4 went to Republican moderates, that leaves 8. Now, out of the 8, 4 returned to Republican control leaving 4 seats which went from Democratic to Fiscal/Socially Conservative, the IA-1, ME-2, NV-4, NY-21 with which to determine of the Conservative win was a "blowout".

To me, a four seat change in ideology does not represent a "blowout" by any stretch of the imagination; but, you will have to make up your own mind.

Comparing the 2014 Mid-Term Turnout with the 2012 Presidential Turnout

TO SAY TWO DIFFERENT GROUPS OF PEOPLE VOTED in each election might be considered an understatement.

 
2012
2014
COMMENTS
Democratic - Male (BLUE)
52%-D; 45%-R
49%-D; 48%-R
 
18 - 29 Vote (B/P/R)
19%/21%/16%
16%/13%/16%
Youth votes heavily Democratic
Black Vote (B/P/R)
15%/10%/18%
7%/9%/14%
 
Black Vote - Blue State
95%-D; 5%-R
89%-D; 9%-R
 
Latino Vote (B/P/R)
9%/11%/8%
8%/6%/4%
 

Let's Kick It Off

AS MANY OF YOU PROBABLY ALREADY KNOW, I am a political junkie. I spent a lot of computer bits analysing the 2012 Presidential election and thought I did a passable job predicting the size and the outcome of the Presidential and Senate races. I feel that I beat most of the pundits on TV and a lot of the individual polls. You rewarded my with some pretty high readership numbers, at least until November.

I am going to do the same thing again for the 2014 Midterm election of the 114th Congress. My gut tells me we are in for a surprise; that the Democrats are going to do better than even they think they will right now. But that remains to be seen. For the House, I will be doing a district-by-district analysis and for the Senate, I will do what I did two years ago. I will start with a Table on the House election, that will be the longest with 485 rows, one for each district and one for each state name; so get ready to scroll up and down as well as left and right. For a while, there might be some errors in the table as to missing or misplaced picks since I am building on this on the fly because I want to publish it now with a poll for the 2016 Presidential election favorites with this hub. As I continually update it, or if you would be kind enough to point them out to me, I will fix them as I find them. The Senate version of this will be published in a separate hub.

Nov 3, 2014 Let's Predict the Outcome!

WHEN THE 2012 ELECTION WAS OVER, the Republicans held 234 seats and the Democrats held the other 201 for a total of 235 seats. My model predicts, remember this is my first attempt at this and polling data is sparse, that Democrats will end up with 227 seats to Republicans 208.

Now, after you stop laughing, let me explain. The first thing I did in this model was look at the fundamental data such as how many white males, how many black females, how many Hispanics, how many voters between 18 - 35, whether there was an incumbent or not, and the like. All of this data was massaged to come up with a number between 1% and 100% representing the percentage of vote the Democrats would get. Then this was modified by past voting history for the district and any polling data I could get my hands on. That is where the above prediction came from.

There are, however, 23 races where Republicans currently hold the seat and the history slightly favors the Republicans, but the fundamentals come down on the side of the Democrats such that it outweighs the incumbent advantage that is built in as well as the history advantage. IF I assume ALL of those go to the Republicans, then the prediction would be Republicans 231 and Democrats 204 seats, a gain of 3 seats for the Democrats. Currently the mainstream media is predicting a loss of around 6 seats.

But, I think the minorities will play a bigger roll than most think, so I am only give 75% of the 23 seats to the Republicans. So, I will go completely against the grain and make my final prediction to - Republicans: 225 and Democrats: 221, a gain of 20 seats for the Democrats.

Surveys Have Moved

2016 Potential Republican Presidential Candidatate

Who Would You Like to see Run as the 2016 Republican Nominee for President?

  • 2% Bobby Jindal, Governor of LA
  • 26% Chris Christi, Governor of NJ
  • 12% Collin Powell, former Secretary of State and Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff
  • 10% Condi Rice, former Secretary of State
  • 0% Jeb Bush, former Governor of FL
  • 7% Marco Rubio, Senator from FL
  • 5% Michelle Bachmann, Representative from MN
  • 2% Paul Ryan, Representative from WI
  • 17% Rand Paul, Senator from KY
  • 0% Rick Santorum, former Senator from PA
  • 7% Sarah Palin, former Governor of AK
  • 2% Scott Walker, Governor of WI
  • 5% Ted Cruz, Senator from TX
  • 5% Other
42 people have voted in this poll.

This poll is now closed to voting.

.I SEE THAT COLIN POWELL who is not running, but led for a short while and would be my choice, is currently tied for 1st place with Chris Christi. I suspect, after a few more votes roll in, Christi will fall behind and Rand Paul will pull ahead.

Well, I was wrong, Christi just darted ahead at the beginning of March and Rand Paul caught up.

... Several weeks later, I see that Bridgegate hasn't affected Christie, at least with Hubbers, he has pulled further ahead.

11/3/14 - and further ahead. Christi - 11; Paul - 7; Powell - 5; Rice - 3; Rubio - 3; Palin - 3; Cruz - 2; Other - 2; Bachmann - 1; Jindal - 1; Walker - 1; Ryan - 1

2016 Potential Democratic Presidential Candidate

Who Would You Like to see Run as the 2016 Democratic Nominee for President?

  • 6% Andrew Cuomo, Governor of NY
  • 3% Cory Booker, Mayor of Newark, NJ
  • 0% Elizabeth Warren, Senator form MA
  • 6% Evan Bayh, Senator from IN
  • 61% Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State and Senator from NY
  • 13% Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States
  • 0% Julian Castro, Mayor of San Antonio, TX
  • 0% Mark Warner, Senator from VA
  • 6% Martin O'Malley, Governor of MD
  • 0% Raul Emanuel, Mayor of Chicago
  • 3% Other
31 people have voted in this poll.

This poll is now closed to voting.

THE RACES ARE HEATING UP (and Incumbents Keep Quitting)

ON NOVEMBER 24, 2013, 1 1/2 MONTHS AFTER the debacle of the rollout of the Obamacare website, Republicans pulled ahead of Democrats in the generic 2014 Generic House Race Poll. On Dec 29, they fell behind again, and not by a little bit. The question is, can they climb back up?

6/2/2014 Note: I haven't factored it in yet, but I have noticed that since April 2014, the gap between generic House Democrats and Republicans has grown from a 0 point difference (43% each) to a 4 point difference today; it isn't much, but it has been consistent and growing. What is most interesting about this Huffington poll of polls is that the percentage of people picking a generic Democrat (hovering around 44-45%) the percentage of people picking generic Republicans has been consistently falling, from 43% to 41%. If the trend keeps up, then later in the season, I will factor that into my results in the close call races.

9/12/14 Update: After averaging the last 13 polls pitting Democrats against Republicans in a generic ballot, the race is dead heat. The Democrats have polled between 38% and 47%, while Republicans have polled between 39% and 49%. You can see the spread of preferences has increased from April 2014, but are basically the same with maybe a lean for the Republicans.

The Polls Are Starting Tell Stories Now

In late Aug 2014, Politico/GWU commissioned a political nationwide survey. The results were very interesting so I thought I would share. First, you need to know who they surveyed so you can put the results in context, which makes a lot of difference when reviewing the results. Also keep in mind ... these are people who said they are "Likely" to Vote:

  1. Union workers were slightly underrepresented (within MOE)
  2. Hispanics were seriously underrepresented (this may impact my predictions)
  3. 71% considered themselves Middle Class and 20% thought of themselves as Low Income
  4. First, of the 1000 people interviewed, 410 were Democrats, 400 were Republicans, and 170 were considered Independent. (It would appear Independents are seriously underrepresented but those that said they leaned Left or Right were put with those groups.)
  5. 44% of those interviewed considered themselves "Born-again", generally consistent with a conservative viewpoint
  6. 58% of respondents considered themselves "Somewhat" or "Very" conservative, while only 37% considered themselves "Somewhat" or "Very" liberal. This leaves on of those interviewed as being Moderate. (To me, this is an astounding result, especially given #4 and as a major impact on how to interpret the poll numbers. It also makes me wonder about how biased the poll is or does it speak to who is going to show up at the polls.)
  7. So does this final demographic. Only 25% of those who say they are going to vote have no college courses. Yet 42% of Americans have no college education. (I will have to incorporate this into my analysis as well.)

QUESTION 1: Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

  • Somewhat or Strongly Right Direction: 21%
  • Somewhat or Strongly Wrong Track: 70%

Now those numbers are not out of line with other polls but the "Wrong Track" is definitely on the high side; but this would be expected given the high number of conservatives in the mix. It is the answers to the next questions which provide the real insight which you do not see in the news.

QUESTION 1-1: Being as specific as you can, what are one or two reasons why you think the country is headed in the right direction (21%)? (I'll just list the top few)

  • Healthcare going well .....................................................21.3% (4.4%)
  • Economy doing better / stock market .............................18.6% (3.9%)
  • Jobs up / unemployment down .......................................17.2% (3.6%)
  • General positive ..............................................................13.8% (2.9%)
  • Positive feeling about Obama .........................................13.6% (2.9%)

QUESTION 1-2: Being as specific as you can, what are one or two reasons why you think the country is off on the wrong track (70%)?

  • Have issues with Obama/country has lack of leadership..19.3% (13.5%)
  • Foreign conflicts / poor foreign policy ...............................12.0% (8.4%)
  • Have issues with Congress ..............................................11.4% (8.0%)
  • The economy is poor ..........................................................8.7% (6.1%)
  • Other issues /education, losing religion ..............................7.7% (5.4%)

The percentages in parentheses are the percent of the total respondents who chose that answer. For example, 135 people chose both 1) America is going in the wrong direction AND 2) Have issues with Obama. It is this analysis that tells the REAL story.

Keeping in mind that the majority of the people responding to the question are of the conservative mindset, meaning they have a bias toward President Obama and his policies to start with, it should come as no surprise that four of the top five reasons why American feel the country is going is on the Wrong Track has nothing to do with the economy but has everything to do with social values. Conversely, for those who think the country is going in the Right Direction, pick economy, not social, related reasons. The disparity is such that more people in the poll actually think the economy is better (11.9%) than it is worse (6.1%), when viewed in this fashion.

The Race for the House of Representatives, Can There Be a Change of Control?

THE TABLE BELOW PRESENTS THE DISTRICT-BY-DISTRICT RESULTS of my analysis of which Party will win each seat. The numbers will change as time goes on as my assessments of the polls, the national-state-local mood, incumbency, ethnic/gender/youth make-up, and opinion on legislative accomplishments are refined.

The challenge at the moment is completing the table below, there are a LOT of rows and calculations for each row to come up with the initial estimate; I hope you find it interesting watching it grow and take shape. The table will present the:

  1. State
  2. District number for each district in that .State
  3. The incumbent Party and how it stands today
  4. The total Democrats and Republicans that will sit in the House
  5. My pick for the winner (HD-Hard Dem, SD-Soft Dem, DC-No Republican Challenger, HR-Hard Rep, SR-Soft Rep, RC-No Democratic Challenger

11/7/2013: When I first created this chart a month or so ago, it showed the following results:

  • Democratic No-Contest wins: 188
  • Democratic Easy wins: 11
  • Democratic Hard wins: 12
  • Total Democratic Seats: 211


  • Republican No-Contest wins: 168
  • Republican Easy wins: 32
  • Republican Hard wins: 24
  • Total Republican Seats: 224

You will notice a sea-change between the above original results and the newest interim results; as strange it seems (including me) I show the Democrats handily regaining the House come next November! Now, please don't move on to the next hub, never to come back thinking this is bogus; the results will change again, or so I think.

The original estimation was using basic parameters with errors embedded in the thousand hundred individual formula's and no consideration of how the parts might play together. Also, almost all of the contests were uncontested.

In this second iteration, I 1) cleaned up as many of the formula as I could, 2) increased the level of detail and data I am looking at, 3) increased the complexity of the relationships between data types, and 4) added quite a few more contested seats. One of the assumptions I am making is that women and minorities will vote more Democratic this time around as opposed to 2012 and that is one of the areas I need to review to make sure it reflects what I think reality is going to be. One important element currently missing is a factor for "incumbency", the momentum a current officeholder brings into any election. What is accounted for, however, is how that district has historically voted. I suspect when I enter "momentum" of incumbency into the equation, things should shift back to the Right.

11/22/2013: I made one more major modification to my spreadsheet I am using to follow the d 2014 House races; also, the new table below incorporate more entries into fray. The new factor is an adjustment to account for incumbancy, if there is one; if the incumbent is Democrat, then the estimate for a Democrat is increased; if the incumbent is Republican, the estimate for a Democratic winner is decreased. If there is no incumbent, then there is no adjustment at all.

Below is the top line position of the Table before the update:


  • Democratic No-Contest wins: 144
  • Democratic Easy wins: 34
  • Democratic Hard wins: 55
  • Total Democratic Seats: 233 !


  • Republican No-Contest wins: 145
  • Republican Easy wins: 13
  • Republican Hard wins: 44
  • Total Republican Seats: 202 !

Quite a switch, isn't it? But Democrats, don't get too excited; it is about to change because the new factor regarding incumbancy is a significant one. I don't know if the number I chose properly reflects the influence, but that influence is in doubt in the upcoming election because how badly Americans of all stripes hate Congress.

4/21/14: While I have more refinements to bring in, such as the likelihood of Black and Latino voters to vote and poll results (both of which I expect to tighten the race, my latest revisions give me the following totals:

  • Democratic No-Contest wins: 92
  • Democratic Easy wins: 135
  • Democratic Hard wins: 33
  • Total Democratic Seats: 260 !


  • Republican No-Contest wins: 80
  • Republican Easy wins: 63
  • Republican Hard wins: 32
  • Total Republican Seats: 175 !

9/20/14:

    • Democratic No-Contest wins: 45
    • DEMOCRATIC WINS: 50
    • Democratic Easy wins: 119
    • Democratic Hard wins: 33
    • Total Democratic Seats: 247 !


    • Republican No-Contest wins: 40
    • REPUBLICAN WINS: 41
    • Republican Easy wins: 71
    • Republican Hard wins: 34
    • Total Republican Seats: 186 !

June 4, 2014

MANY PRIMARIES HAVE BEEN COMPLETED AND AS A RESULT the outcome of a few races are either now known or are near certain (barring death or scandal of the candidate). Thanks to California's Open Primary process where the top two finishers run for the seat in November, several of the seats are decided because candidates from the same Party came in first and second. In other cases, the first place candidate came in so far ahead, it would be next to impossible to lose in November. So, while I many not know the name of the Representative, I am near certain as to the Party who will take the seat. Likewise, in many other States, now that the primaries are over, there were several races where one Party of the other put up no candidates, so it is easy to assume the other Party will win the seat; consequently, I am making that assumption.

Based on the above, I have now assigned 29 seats to the Democrats and 21 seats to the Republicans, there were no surprises,

I tried updating the table below a few days ago and after 30 minutes work, I saved it ... of into bit heaven it went. Trying again now.

The Race for the House

STATE
DISTRICT
INCUMBENT
PICK
PICK
PICK
PICK
PICK
PICK
PICK
PICK
PICK
PICK
TOTALS
 
200-D / 233-R / 2-V
TOTAL HOUSE - 435
TOTAL DEMS - 247
NO CONTEST/WINS DEMS - 45/50
HARD DEMS - 119
SOFT DEMS - 33
IND
SOFT REPS - 34
HARD REPS - 79
NO CONTEST/WINS REPS - 41/40
TOTAL REPS - 186
Alaska
Only one District
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
Alabama
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
WIN
R
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
7
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
Arkansas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
WIN
R
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
WIN
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
Arizona
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
7
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
WIN
R
 
9
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
California
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
2
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
WIN
R
 
5
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
WIN
R
 
9
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
 
 
11
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
12
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
13
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
14
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
15
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
16
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
17
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
19
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
20
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
21
R
D
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
WIN
R
 
22
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
WIN
R
 
23
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
WIN
R
 
24
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
25
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
WIN
R
 
26
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
27
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
28
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
29
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
30
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
31
R
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
32
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
33
D
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
34
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
35
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
36
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
37
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
38
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
39
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
40
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
41
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
42
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
WIN
R
 
43
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
44
D
D
D
WIN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
45
R
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
46
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
47
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
48
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
49
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
50
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
WIN
R
 
51
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
52
D
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
53
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
COLORADO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
D
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
6
R
D
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
7
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CONNETICUT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
DELAWARE
AT-LARGE
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BOLDED ROWS ARE SETTLED RACES DUE TO PRIMARY RESULTS; NO COMPETITORS; OR OVERWHELMING FUNDAMENTAL OR POLL ANALYSIS
FLORIDA
DISTRICT
INCUMBENT
PICK
TD
DC
HD
SD
I
SR
HR
RC
TR
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
2
R
D
 
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
R
R
D
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
5
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
7
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
9
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10
R
D
 
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
11
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
12
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
13
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
14
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
15
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
16
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
17
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
18
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
19
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
20
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
21
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
22
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
23
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
24
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
25
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
26
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
27
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
GEORGIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
2
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
7
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
9
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
10
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
11
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
12
D
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
13
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
14
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
HAWAII
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
IDAHO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
ILLINOIS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
 
R
 
7
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
11
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
12
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
13
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
14
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
15
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
16
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
17
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
INDIANA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
7
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
9
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
IOWA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
R
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
R
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
KANSAS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
KENTUCKY
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
3
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BOLDED ROWS ARE SETTLED RACES DUE TO PRIMARY RESULTS; NO COMPETITORS; OR OVERWHELMING FUNDAMENTAL OR POLL ANALYSIS
LOUISIANA
DISTRICT
INCUMBENT
PICK
TD
DC
HD
SD
I
SR
HR
RC
TR
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
2
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
5
R
D
 
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
MAINE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
MARYLAND
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
2
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
MASSACHUSETTS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
MICHIGAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
5
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
D
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
7
D
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
9
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
11
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
12
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
13
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
14
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
MINNESOTA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
7
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
MISSISSIPPI
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
2
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
MISSIOURI
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
5
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
7
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
MONTANA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AT LARGE
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
NEBRASKA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
NEVADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
3
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NEW HAMPSHIRE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NEW JERSEY
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
6
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
8
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
11
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
12
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NEW MEXICO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BOLDED ROWS ARE SETTLED RACES DUE TO PRIMARY RESULTS; NO COMPETITORS; OR OVERWHELMING FUNDAMENTAL OR POLL ANALYSIS
STATE
DISTRICT
PICK
TD
HD
DC
HD
SD
I
SR
HR
RC
TR
NEW YORK
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
3
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
11
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
12
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
13
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
14
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
15
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
16
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
17
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
19
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
20
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
21
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
22
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
23
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
24
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
25
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
26
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
27
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
NORTH CAROLINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
4
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
7
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
9
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
10
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
11
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
12
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
13
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
NORTH DAKOTA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AT LARGE
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
OHIO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
3
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
7
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
9
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
11
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
12
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
13
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
14
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
15
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
16
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
OKLAHOMA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
5
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
OREGON
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
3
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PENNSYLVANIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
7
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
9
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
10
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
11
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
12
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
13
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
14
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
15
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
16
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
17
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
RHODE ISLAND
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BOLDED ROWS ARE SETTLED RACES DUE TO PRIMARY RESULTS; NO COMPETITORS; OR OVERWHELMING FUNDAMENTAL OR POLL ANALYSIS
STATE
DISTRICT
INCUMBENT
PICK
TD
DC
HD
SD
I
SR
HR
RC
R
SOUTH CAROLINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
2
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
3
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
5
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
6
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
SOUTH DAKOTA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AT LARGE
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
TENNESSEE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
5
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
7
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
9
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
TEXAS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
6
R
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7
R
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
9
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
11
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
12
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
13
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
14
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
15
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
16
D
D
 
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
17
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
18
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
19
R
D
 
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
20
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
21
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
22
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
23
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
24
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
25
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
26
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
27
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
28
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
29
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
30
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
31
R
D
D
 
HD
 
 
SR
 
 
 
 
32
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
33
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
34
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
35
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
36
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
UTAH
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HD
 
R
 
2
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HD
 
R
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
VERMONT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AT LARGE
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
VIRGINIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
2
R
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
7
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
8
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
10
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
 
 
11
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
WASHINGTON
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
4
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
6
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
9
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BOLDED ROWS ARE SETTLED RACES DUE TO PRIMARY RESULTS; NO COMPETITORS; OR OVERWHELMING FUNDAMENTAL OR POLL ANALYSIS
STATE
DISTRICT
INCUMBENT
PICK
TD
DC
HD
SD
I
SR
HR
RC
TR
WEST VIRGINIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
2
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
 
3
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
HR
 
R
WISCONSON
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
R
D
D
 
 
SD
 
 
 
 
R
 
2
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
D
D
D
DC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
D
D
D
 
HD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
SR
 
 
R
 
6
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
7
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
 
8
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
WYOMING
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AT LARGE
R
R
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RC
R
BOLDED ROWS ARE SETTLED RACES DUE TO PRIMARY RESULTS; NO COMPETITORS; OR OVERWHELMING FUNDAMENTAL OR POLL ANALYSIS

You Might See a Bit of Pattern Starting with Florida

9/1/13-400 DTG: I JUST FINISHED ENTERING MY INITIAL FINDINGS ON FLORIDA. You might notice something interesting regarding the Republican seats. Keep in mind, Florida is a heavily gerrymandered state to ensure Republican domination (I will have examples later), and it has worked; there are currently 17 House Republicans vs 10 House Democrats and it is even more lopsided in the State Legislature. By my initial calculus, however, and it may change as I dig deeper, 4 of those Republican seats are ones I consider "soft", which requires two things, 1) there is a Democratic opponent and 2) the score I come up with falls between 45 and 50. If the score is below 45, I consider it a hard Republican seat and above 50, it is a soft or hard Democratic seat.

9/8/13-392 DTG: Whoa, I must love this stuff, that was a lot of work! And, the pattern held. In the end there are 79 seats that are currently being contested at this point in time; that will surely change as election day approaches. Of the 79, however, fully 56 are Republican seats being contested by Democrats (putting a lie to a Daily Kos article I read ... more later) and only 23 Democratic seats which are being challenged by Republicans; and that difference may be critical.

Before I go further, let me refer to this Daily Kos article I parenthetically mentioned. Written in May 2013, it chastised the Democrats for letting so many Republican seats go unchallenged. Well, it seemed good at the time so I included mention of it where this section starts ... you notice it is not there any more. That's because it just didn't apply to the Democrats. Sadly, it applies to both parties, in a big way; 82% of the House seats DO NOT have a challenger!!! I am flabbergasted, disappointed beyond belief, and angry ... all at the same time! It is simply unAmerican that the political process has been so bastardized by gerrymandering, voting rights violations, and other methods of ensuring "safe" districts that it is no wonder American's are asking, "what is the point?" (without realizing, of course, they are the ones who are ultimately responsible for letting it get as bad as it is in the first place).

In any case, it is what it is and I am at my starting point for the House races. If you consider the second row of the first table way at the beginning, you will find abbreviations and numbers which look like this:

  • 200-D / 233-R / 2-V
  • TOTAL HOUSE - 435
  • TOTAL DEMS - 211
  • NO CONTEST DEMS - 188
  • HARD DEMS - 11
  • SOFT DEMS - 12
  • IND-0
  • SOFT REPS - 24
  • HARD REPS - 32
  • NO CONTEST REPS - 168
  • TOTAL REPS - 224

Interpreting this, the first line means the current House contains 200 Democrats, 233 Republicans, and 2 vacancies for a total of 435 House members. For one side of the other to gain dictatorial powers (for that is what the House rules allow), they must hold 218 seats.

The rest of the numbers represent my current estimate of the results of the 2014 election. Based on my particular worldview at this instance in time, I would go along with most of the pundits and say the Republicans will maintain a slim majority of 224 vs 211. But, there is a significant caveat.

As part of my analysis, I factored in the districts Cook's Partisan Voting Index (PVI), a measure of the districts historic tendency to vote in one direction or another. There are numbers like D +11, Even, or R +22; this gives a weight to how likely that district is to vote Democratic or Republican based on past voting patterns. So, if you look at the number of Soft Democratic seats or Soft Republican seats, if the Republicans lose only 7 more of their soft seats than the Democrats do, they lose control of the House. Let me also say, however, that I believe my initial starting position with the Democrats gaining 11 seats is more optimistic than most of the polls and pundits are giving them right now.

How Do the States Total Up?

STATE
TOTAL
HARD DEMOCRAT
HARD REPUBLICAN
REMAINING
 
435
104
52
279
ALASKA
1
0
1
0
ALABAMA
7
1
4
5
ARKANSAS
4
0
4
0
ARIZONA
9
2
1
6
CALIFORNIA
53
11
5
28
COLORADO
7
2
2
3
CONNETITCUTE
5
3
0
2
DELAWARE
1
1
0
0
FLORIDA
27
7
1
19
GEORGIA
14
1
3
10
HAWAII
2
2
0
0
IDAHO
2
0
2
0
ILLINOIS
18
11
4
3
INDIANA
9
2
0
7
IOWA
4
3
0
1
KANSAS
4
0
1
3
KENTUCKY
6
1
1
4
LOUISIANA
6
0
0
6
MAINE
2
2
0
0
MARYLAND
8
5
0
3
MASSACHUSETTES
9
5
0
4
MICHIGAN
14
4
0
10
MINNESOTA
8
3
0
5
MISSISSIPPI
4
1
0
3
MISSOURI
8
1
2
5
MONTANA
1
0
0
1
NEBRASKA
3
0
1
2
NEVADA
4
1
0
3
NEW HAMPSHIRE
2
2
0
0
NEW JERSEY
12
4
0
8
NEW MEXICO
3
1
0
2
NEW YORK
27
5
0
22
NORTH CAROLINA
13
2
1
10
NORTH DAKOTA
1
0
1
0
OHIO
16
0
0
16
OKLAHOMA
5
0
2
3
OREGON
5
3
0
2
PENNSYLVANIA
18
1
0
17
RHODE ISLAND
2
1
0
1
SOUTH CAROLINA
7
0
2
5
SOUTH DAKOTA
1
0
1
0
TENNESSEE
7
1
2
4
TEXAS
36
12
5
19
UTAH
4
0
1
3
VERMONT
1
0
0
1
VIRGINIA
11
2
1
8
WASHINGTON
10
0
0
10
WEST VIRGINIA
3
0
2
1
WISCONSIN
8
1
1
6
WYOMING
1
0
1
0
THE TOTALS FOR DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS ARE FOR THOSE WHO SCORE GREATER THAN 59 OR LESS THAN 41 ON MY 6 - 100 SCALE. THOSE WHO SCORE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 ARE TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT THE MOMENT. THOSE WHO SCORE 5 OR -5 FACE NO OPPONENTS CURRENTLY AND WIL

Florida 13th District Special Election

I WANT TO STICK MY NECK OUT and predict that Democrat Alex Sink will beat, barely, Republican David Jolly in this special election. The model I have developed so far, which doesn't take into account other polls yet, gives Sink a score of 51.2, which is a very marginal win.

We will see in about 2 hours.

Well, it is 4 hours later and my prediction was off, but only slightly, in terms of polling; but quite a bit in terms of outcome. Jolly beat Sink 48.5% to 46.6% with 4.8% going to the Libertarian candidate Lucas Overby. In terms of my scoring system, that kind of result represents about a 48. I am not even remotely surprised I was wrong, given how close to 50 Sink's score was plus the fact that this was formerly a Republican held seat. The latter fact has a little less importance because how people have voted previously in that district is factored in. What will change now for 2014 is the Republicans get a 5-point bump because now the incumbent is Republican.

I am sure what both the Democrats and Republicans will be doing is analyzing the demographics of the vote trying to answer questions like 1) were the Ds successful in getting out the vote (a few days later - the answer was no, apparently this wasn't that important to them) or 2) did the anti-Obamacare message by the Republicans have an impact?

Given the low Democratic turn-out during the special election seemed to be a large part of the cause of their defeat will certainly cause a rematch in 8 months where the outcome may be different.

Why Do I Think The Republicans and Pundits Have It Wrong.

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM BY THE REPUBLICANS, PUNDITS, and many Democrats is that it is an uphill battle for the Democrats to maintain control of the Senate and a near impossibility to gain control of the House in 2014. I beg to differ.

It has been my experience that people, especially politicians and those associated with them, look and think in the short-term, take the latest headline as gospel, never think past bumper stickers and sound-bites, don't bother looking too far back in history, and, God-forbid, take lessons from it. It has been my training, on the other hand, as a cost and economics analyst to do just the opposite; to study the historical information and try to discern trends, look at current events and see how the trends apply to them, and then try to estimate how the conjunction of those two sets of information might apply to future events taking into account human nature (or in my previous life, business/government nature).

It is my training that I attempt to apply here and is the reason I currently disagree with the majority opinion. I say currently because my type of personality (Meyers-Briggs INTP) is always searching out new information with which to test and, if necessary, modify present thought based on that new data. It has always amazed me not that politicians get castrated by their opponents for "flip-flopping" when new information leads to a different assessment, but that Americans listen and buy into the castration. That just seems ... unAmerican to me.

Anyway, here is a bullet form of my current views:

  • Republicans and pundits "group-thought" their way into thinking voters were going to turn-out and vote in certain ways when polls clearly showed they were not. The result was Obama clobbered Romney; Democrats gained, rather than lost Senate seats; and Democrats gained seats in the House. in 2012.
  • Republicans made the Presidential election in 2012 a referendum on Obamacare and were resoundingly defeated, something they refuse to admit happened
  • Republicans refuse to look deeper into the Obamacare poll numbers to see that there has been a consistent MINORITY of Americans who oppose the kind of healthcare Obamacare represent. When you add those who favor Obamacare outright with those who oppose Obamacare because it is too weak, then you have the majority of Americans rejecting the Republican position. More importantly, that result has been consistent for four years.
  • Republicans have based their success in 2014 solely on the dismal, absolute failure of Obamacare. Four years of hyperbolic rhetoric supports this view and because there are a large number of high scoring Right-wing Authoritarian followers in this country, they keep getting the positive feedback to keep up the attack regardless of any evidence to the contrary.
  • By the time the election rolls around, most of the Republican sky-is-falling hyperbole is going to be so much egg-on-their-face because people will realize it didn't pan out. For example, the CBO predicted, before the October crash-and-burn of the web-site roll-out that the exchanges would need about 7 million enrollments. The Obama administration, stupidly, took that as their number and ran with. Since I know how the CBO does business, I know that 7 million came with a caveat of plus or minus 10 or 15%. Taking that into account, enrollments met the CBO estimate now that it has past the 6 million number. By the time of the election, even the American public will understand how false the Republican claims are.
  • Also, the Republicans predicted Obamacare will have imploded under its own weight by now ... it hasn't. If fact, it seems to be working rather well with only a few problems that all major programs experience. Once enrollments end in tomorrow, the settling in period begins to let insures sort through everything and start smoothing things out even more. (For a change, I have to give the insurance companies who took a chance on this a big hand for working through the amazing amount of challenges the Obama administration threw at them, many of them unnecessarily caused by administration bumbling and the rest by Republican recalcitrance.)
  • There are going to at least 7 million potential Democratic voters; those who signed up through the Federal exchanges
  • There are going to be several more million potential Democratic voters; those who sighed up through the State exchanges
  • There are going to be even more million potential Democratic voters: those who became eligible for Medicaid who previously weren't
  • Add in a few more million potential Democratic voters in States that refused to expand Medicaid
  • Keep on going with the young people still on their parents insurance ... and throw in the parents of those kids.
  • All of the above is just about Obamacare, the Republicans main hope.
  • Then consider the Latino vote, which has had historically low turn-out; for example, in 2012, only 49% of eligible Hispanic voters, voted. Last election, that trend started to change and this election the Republicans have been repeatedly slapping them in the face. I don't think they are going to stay home in such large numbers this time around.
  • Same with women who have been trending more Democratic. Women, as a group and as just white women, vote in larger numbers than their male counterparts, and that difference is growing, as is the vote of the youth, which is also going Democratic.
  • The only demographic that is still solidly Republican anymore is white men, followed by white women, and adults over 39.
  • What I find in favor of the Republicans is the Democrats have never figured out how to message and the fact that it is easier to motivate older whites to vote than others.

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5 comments

Lee B profile image

Lee B 3 years ago from New Mexico

"My gut tells me we are in for a surprise; that the Democrats are going to better than even they think they will right now."

Sure hope you're right!

Any thoughts about a viable third party?


My Esoteric profile image

My Esoteric 3 years ago from Keystone Heights, FL Author

Hmmm, seems like I missed the word "do". Need to fix. Thanks for your comment, @Lee B. Third parties, except at the State level and sometimes for Congressional seats for Independents have a very tough row-to-hoe in this country. For Presidential races, they have only proven to be spoilers such as the Green Party for the Democrats once, and Ross Perot for the Republicans.

The only viable one I can see happening, and frankly hope it does, harkens back to the pre-Lincoln days when Party factions mixed and matched as needed; that is where the Lincoln Republicans came from; the progressive elements of the old Whig Party and the very Conservative Democratic Party. I could see that happening with people coalescing around such popular figures as Colin Powell, Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, the Clintons, etc.

There is already a seed planted in Congress with the "No Label" party, a self-limited group of problem solvers from both Parties who goal is to design legislation to get past this partisan gridlock. The one piece I know they have gotten through is the "No pay for no Budget" bill, which is, I am guessing you see a budget from the Senate for the first time. Reid felt sure the Conservatives wouldn't filibuster it, so he put one forward.


Lee B profile image

Lee B 3 years ago from New Mexico

Maybe things are looking up!


bradmaster from orange county ca 22 months ago

My Esoteric

This year had the lowest turnout in several decades, and the highest wins for the republicans in several decades. The confluence of both of these has to have some correlation that democrats only show up regularly for the president.


My Esoteric profile image

My Esoteric 22 months ago from Keystone Heights, FL Author

Yep, it certainly does, the dummies. It's an unfortunate reality that it is only the political junkies and extremists who give a shit until there is a dozen holes in the dam. Until then, football is more important than your future government; disgusting.

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