The World Is Explodin' (Population Growth)

Country Trouble Hotspots

The World population is exploding. We hear this all before. The problem is if we hear it enough times, we become nonreactive to it. We know the population is increasing but we also know the growth rate of the world is decreasing. Should we still be concern? In many ways, yes!

The difficulty with understanding the population situation is the math. Yes, that dreaded word, mathematics. It is base on the principle of exponential growth. Interesting enough, exponential growth is not found in nature. Nature, because it has its own built in balance and checks, (predators and prey is a good example), rarely exhibits explosions in population growth. There are exceptions due to man’s interference with nature. Introducing a species not native to that country with no known predators is a typical example. Rabbits multiplying rapidly in Australia is a classic example.

Man has introduce exponential growth in many of the things he has created: national debt, energy consumption, mass production of products, depletion of our natural resources, rising costs of houses, food, fuel, etc.

I will try to keep the mathematical principles simple. Basically, exponential growth feeds upon itself – it is a positive feedback system. The more we have, the faster it grows. The amount we have is called the base. It is what we start off with.

We will look at population growth in countries (a future hub will look at cities -- worldwide). These are the alarming facts we must be aware of. These are all mathematical sound facts thus indisputable.

FACT #1 – The bigger the base is, the faster the population will increase.

FACT #2 – The amount of increase in population plays a far greater role in growth.

FACT #3 – Even as the world’s population growth decreases, the number of people will continue to increase yearly.

FACT #4 – The world’s population growth rate is 1,2%. It doesn’t sound like much but just the sheer addition of people added every year offsets the reduced growth rate. In 1963, the world’s growth rate was 2.1% and the annual increase was 69 million people. In 2003, the world’s growth rate decreased to 1.26% but the annual increase was 79 million! The growth rate now is 1.17%, and the annual increase hasn’t changed. This is because the base population continues to climb and is a major factor in determining annual increase. The population of the world was 3.2 billion in 1963. Fourty years later (2003), the world’s population almost double – to 6.3 billion. Despite a decrease in growth rate (by 0.79%), the annual increase in the world’s population from 1963 to 2003 was 10 million. By 2010, the growth rate dropped by 0.09% but the annual increase didn’t change. What did change was the total world’s population – the world’s population is now 6.931 billion!

FACT #5 – Only 11 countries contributed to 63.5% of the world’s annual increase. Out of 79 million people, this would be 44.5 million. The eleven countries are (in order of population increase): India, China, Pakistan, United States, Nigeria, Indonesia, Ethiopia. Brazil, Congo(Dem. Rep. of), Bangladash, and the Philippines. India’s population increase is double that of China’s. This is because India’s growth rate is much greater that China’s. India and China contributes more than 50% of the annual increase by these 11 countries. The United States’ annual increase is contributed mainly by immigration while the others are by the birth rate. All of these countries have large base populations (at least over 70 million people). As far as growth rates go, China has the lowest (0.66%) while two have growth rates over 3% (Ethiopia and Democratic Republic of the Congo)

FACT #6 – Thirty-one countries contributed to more than 80% of the annual increase. The only developed country in this list was the United States.

FACT #7 – The world’s population is increasing 217,096 per day! India – 50,000, China – 24,000, Pakistan – 9,400, United States – 8,200. The top eleven countries are increasing at least 5,000 people every day. Fourty-two countries have daily increases of more than one thousand people.

FACT #8 – The eleven fastest growing countries also have a total population of nearly 4 billion people (about 59% of the total world’s population)

FACT #9 – In order for the world “to put the brakes on” the increase in world’s population, the world’s growth rate must decrease by at least 0.075% for every decade.

FACT #10 – 97% of the projected increase in the world’s population is to take place in the developing countries. The main reason is that a large percentage of people are under 15 years old – 33%. The developed countries have only 18%.

FACT #11 – Every time your heart beats, 2.5 babies are added to the world’s population.

FACT #12 – The replacement rate is the number of children needed to replace themselves. The replacement rate is 2.1. Will this stop population growth? NO! Because the future parents are still alive! If each of today’s couple have 2.1 children and their children have 2.1 children, the world’s population would still grow for another fifty years or more (assume death rates don’t change).

FACT #13 – The doubling time for countries is easy to calculate if you know the growth rate. The doubling time is the time for a country’s population to double. Just take the growth rate and divide it into 70 and the result will be its doubling time. Liberia has the fastest growth rate of any country –4.5%. 70/4.5 = 15.6 years. Liberia’s population (presently at 3.441 million) will double in 15.6 years (to 6.882 million). It will double again (if its growth rate doesn’t change) in the next 15.6 years to 13.764 million (31.2 years later). The next fastest growth rate is 3.9% held by Afghanistan. Its population is 33.609 million. It will double its population within 18 years. By the year 2029, Afghanistan’s population would be 67.218 million. The daily increase now is 2400 people but the daily increase will also double by 2029, increasing by 4800 per day.

FACT #14 – Thirty-nine years later, it will be 2050. Any growth rate greater than 1.75% will double their population within this period. Here is a list of countries with a base population 20 million or more and growth rates greater than 1.75%. Also given is their population in 2050.

See Appendix A Below.

To see a list of countries with base populations greater than 20 million but growth rate less than 1.75%, see Appendix B below.

FACT #15 – Population equivalents of China (1.33 Billion) is added every 16 years!

FACT #15 -- Basically, a country shouldn’t have a growth rate more than 0.75% (doubling time of 93.3 years) to maintain some kind of population control. But ideally, any sustainable growth should be no more than 0.3%. This way, the government would be provide the basic services their people need (utilities, roads, food, water, shelter).

FACT #16 – A country with a population 10 million larger than another country must decrease their growth rate by 0.33% to reach identical populations within 40 years.

FACT #17 – Population equivalents of China (1.33 Billion) is added every 16 years!

FACT #18 – The regions of the world with the greatest population growth rates are the Moslem countries, Southern Asia, Eastern Asia, Middle East, Eastern Africa, Central and Western Africa.

FACT#19 – The fastest growing areas occurred in Africa and Moslem countries.

FACT #20 – Four other countries should be noted: Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi and Somalia. All four have rapid growth rates: from 2.38% to 3.28%. Rwanda and Burundi are very small countries located in Central Africa and thus are very densely populated.

FACT #21 – France is the fastest growing country in Europe with 965 people every day.

FACT #22 – The fastest growing country in Central America is Guatemala at 753 people every day.

FACT #23 -- Fastest growing former Soviet Union republic is Uzbekistan at 711 people every day.

FACT #24 – Other noted countries are Canada and Australia at 752 and 699 people every day respectively.

Appendix A

Country Pop (2011) G.R. Doubling time Pop(2050) **Daily Inc.

(in millions)          (in years)      (in millions)

Congo (Dem. Rep)    68.693    3.21%    21.8    248.054     6041

Ethiopia                     85.237     3.21%   21.8     307.796    7496

Yemen                       23.823     3.45%    20.3      94.694    2252

Madagascar               20.654    3.00%     23.3     68.574    1698

Kenya                        39.003     2.69%     26.0    114.393   2874

Afghanistan                33.610     2.63%     26.6      96.238   2422

Uganda                       32.370     2.69%     26.0      94.939   2386

Iraq                             28.946      2.51%     27.9      79.000   1991

Nigeria                      149.229      2.00%      35.0    332.115   8177

Sudan                         41.088      2.14%      32.7      96.710    2409

Tanzania                    41.049       2.04%      33.8      92.830    2294

Cote d’Ivoire               20.617       2.13%      32.9     48.333     1203

Syria                           20.178       2.13%      32.9     47.304     1178

Cameroon                  18.879        2.19%      32.0     45.334     1133

Pakistan                   182.354         1.95%     35.9    404.345    9416

Philippines                 97.977          1.96%     35.7    214.591    5261

Saudi Arabia              28.687          1.85%     37.8      60.126    1454

Ghana                       23.832           1.88%     37.2     50.553    1228

Mozambique              21.669            1.79%     39.1     44.340    1063

** The daily increase is present values. By the year 2050, most of the increases will double to quadruple. To calculate the daily increase for 2050 just divide the pop for 2050 by pop for 2011 and multiply by the present daily increase.

Appendix B

Here is list of countries with daily increase of 1000 or more, with growth rates less than 1.75%, but not listed above:

India             1,166.079     1.55%      45.2     2,168.657     49,518

China           1,338.613     0.66%     106.1     1,743.046    24,205

United States   307.212     0.98%      71.4        454.655        8248

Indonesia         240.272     1.14%      61.4        379.089        7504

Brazil                198.739     1.20%      58.3        321.177        6534

Bangladash      156.051      1.29%     54.3        261.439        5515

Egypt                  83.083      1.64%     42.7        160.107        3733

Mexico              111.212       1.13%     61.9       174.764         3443

Turkey                76.806       1.31%     53.4       129.708         2757

Vietnam              86.968        0.98%    71.4       128.707         2335

Columbia            45.644         1.38%    50.7         79.271        1726

Iran                     66.429         0.88%    79.5         94.456       1602

Niger                   15.306         3.68%     19.0        66.703      1543

Morocco             34.859          1.48%     47.3        63.011      1413

Burkino Faso      15.746         3.10%      22.6        54.409      1337

Malaysia              25.716         1.72%     40.7         51.168     1212

Argentina           40.914            1.05%     66.7         62.270     1177

Algeria               34.178             1.20%    58.3         55.234      1124

Thailand            65.905             0.62%   112.9         84.455     1119

Venezuela          26.815            1.51%     46.4          49.056    1109

Myanmar            48.138            0.78%     89.7           65.764   1029

Senegal              13.712            2.71%     25.8          40.539    1018

Nepal                  28.563            1.28%     54.7           47.661    1002

Notice that China and Thailand have relatively low growth rates compared to the rest. China has the one child policy and Thailand’s government has a very effective birth control and planned parenthood education program.

Moslem Countries

Country     Population(2011)          Population(2050)          Pop. Increase

Indonesia        240.272                      379.089                         138.817

Pakistan          182.354                      404.345                         221.991

Egypt                  83.083                     160.107                          77.024

Iran                     66.429                       94.456                          28.027

Turkey                76.806                     129.708                          52.902

Sudan                 41.088                       96.710                          55.622

Algeria                34.178                       55.234                           21.056

Morocco              34.859                       63.011                          28.152

Iraq                      28.946                       79.000                          50.054

Afghanistan         33.610                       96.238                           62.628

Malayasia            25.716                       51.168                           25.452

Saudi Arabia       28.687                        60.126                            31.439

Yemen                23.823                        94.694                             70.871

Syria                   20.178                        47.304                             27.126

Niger                    15.306                       66.703                              51.297

Burkino Faso        15.746                      54.409                              38.663

Senegal                13.712                      40.539                              26.827

Nigeria                 149.229                    332.115                            182.996

Total:                1,120.844                  2,566.395                        1,445.551

Growth Rate: 2.07%

Doubling Time: 33.8 Yrs.

South Asia

Country                Population (2011)            Population (2050)        Pop. Increase

India                       1,166.079                       2,168.657                       1,002.578

Nepal                          28.563                             47.661                            19.098

Pakistan                     182.354                           404.345                         221.991

Afghanistan                  33.610                             96.238                           62.628

Total:                        1,566.657                       2,978.340                      1,411.683

Growth Rate: 1.61%

Doubling Time: 43.5 Yrs.

Eastern Asia

Country                Population (2011)            Population (2050)       Pop. Increase

China                        1,338.613                        1,743.046                 404.433

Vietnam                          86.968                          128.707                    41.739

Thailand                         65.905                            84.455                    18.550

Myanmar                        48.138                             65.764                   17.626

Philippines                      97.977                           214.591                 116.614

Indonesia                     240.272                            379.089                 138.817

Malayasia                       25.716                              51.168                  25.452

Total:                         1,903.589                          2,666.820               763.231

Growth Rate: 0.84%.

Doubling Time: 83.3 Yrs

Middle East

Country                 Population (2011)              Population (2050)       Pop. Increase

Iran                          66.429                                94.456                            28.027

Iraq                          28.946                                79.000                            50.054

Turkey                     76.806                               129.708                           52.902

Syria                        20.178                                  47.304                          27.126

Saudi Arabia            28.687                                  60.126                          31.439

Yemen                      23.823                                  94.694                          70.871

Egypt                        83.083                                 160.107                          77.024

Total:                      327.952                                 665.395                        337.443

Growth Rate: 1.77%

Doubling Time: 39.5 Yrs.

Eastern Africa

Country                  Population (2011)           Population (2050)           Pop. Increase

Sudan                           41.088                              96.710                         55.622

Ethiopia                         85.237                            307.796                       222.559

Kenya                            39.003                            114.393                         75.390

Uganda                          32.370                              94.939                         62.569

Tanzania                        41.049                              92.830                         51.781

Mozambique                   21.669                              44.340                         22.671

Total:                            281.070                            819.582                       538.512

Growth Rate: 2.68%

Doubling Time: 26.1 Yrs.

Central and Western Africa

Country                Population (2011)              Population (2050)          Pop. Increase

Senegal                   13.712                              40.539                           26.827

Cote Ivoire               20.617                              48.333                           27.716

Burkino Faso           15.746                              54.409                           38.663

Niger                        15.306                              66.703                           51.297

Nigeria                   149.229                            332.115                         182.886

Ghana                      23.832                              50.553                           26.721

Cameroon                18.879                               45.334                          26.455

Dem. Rep. Of the Congo  68.693                     248.054                         179.361

Total:                      326.014                             886.040                          559.926

Growth Rate: 2.50%

Doubling Time: 28.0 Yrs.