USA Presidential Election - Obama or who will Win the Race?

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President Obama

US Presidential election

Negative factors against the Republicans

President Obama is hoping that the negative factors against the Republican Party will contribute to his winning the US Presidential race for the second term. The GOP is seen as opposing the economic reforms, opposing taxing the rich and opposing huge government spending to create jobs. Recently two women employees complained of sexual harassment by the Republican Party Presidential hopeful Herman Cain when he was the head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s. Of course Cain has denied the allegations as baseless. Cain was the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza. He has taken a lead in many public opinion polls as a possible Republican candidate to oppose President Obama. But he has a drawback of not holding any public office. If he is made as the official Republican nominee, then the democrats will turn the table against their arch rival by questioning his credentials to head USA. “Can a pizza seller with that experience sit in the White House and manage the affairs of the World’s only superpower?” will be the campaign theme of the Democrats. Personally, I don’t think Cain has even an iota of chance of making it to the candidates’ list even without these allegations of sexual harassment.

16% of US population are poor

Under the new census, it is revealed that 49 million Americans have become poor. This is 16% of the total population of USA. Already 14 million Americans are out of the jobs. This statistics will go against President Obama. Moreover President Obama cannot blame the Republicans for everything even though the Republicans are bitterly opposing his plans. The people’s anger is likely to turn against President Obama as the election campaign heats up. President Obama’s campaign managers are depending on the latest sexual scandal against Cain to drive their campaign. But if the Republican Party does not give Cain the green signal to contest, then the sexual harassment allegations will fizzle out.

Steve’s prediction

Steve Jobs had predicted in his autobiography a one time Presidency for Obama if he did not adopt more business friendly policies. President Obama is not seen to be business friendly and so powerful business magnets will be pouring all their resources to oust President Obama from office. Business community in USA generally favours the Republicans.

Perry and Romney stoop to personal attacks

But there is good news for President Obama. Texas Governor Rick Perry and the former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney indulged in an ugly brawl when they debated in Las Vegas recently. Obama-bashing gave way to confrontation over illegal immigration in USA. Perry accused Romney of hiring illegal aliens to work in his yard. Perry also accused Romney of hypocrisy. I feel Perry has more chances of making it to the final selection than Romney, but Republican Party may be better off if Romney makes it to the grade. In the meanwhile, all speculation has been scotched off when Sarah Palin, the former Governor of Alaska ruled out her entering into the Presidential contest in 2012. She opted out because of family reasons. Sarah Palin is considered as the outspoken voice of the American right.

Quran burning pastor enters the fray

But there is an unlikely candidate who has announced his intention to contest for the Presidency. He is America’s Quran burning pastor Terry Jones. He will be contesting as an independent and has no chance to make it. When Terry Jones burned a copy of the Holy Quran, unrest erupted in Kandahar and over 100 people were killed there. President Obama has already begun his campaign with a statement that a Republican win in 2012 Presidential race will cripple USA. President Obama also campaigned to sell his jobs plan throughout America. He is in a fund raising campaign.

Middle class anger

Middle class clout will play an important role in next year’s elections. President Obama’s proposal to tax the rich has found favour with the middle class in US. It may be easy to assume that an overwhelming majority of the middle class is likely to back President Obama in his re-election campaign. But it is not that simple. Middle class families have seen their income eroding during the last 3 years when President Obama was at the helm of affairs. To what extent their anger will turn against President Obama cannot be predicted. President Obama can assume that he with either get the support of majority of the middle class or at the worst, the middle class will be divided in their opinion. A New York Times/CBS News poll indicated that the support base of President Obama is fast eroding.

For India, a defeat of President Obama will be good

If Republican Party comes to power, it will be good for India. Republican Presidential hopeful Romney has already called for raise in the visa cap for skilled workers overseas. This move, if implemented, will favour Indian IT sector. Romney is also in favour of legal immigration. Romney argues that lawful immigrants constitute about 8% of the US population and they form 16% of the top-performing high tech firms. In 25% of the hi-tech firms, the immigrants hold the post of top executives. Over a quarter of all patents filed from USA are by immigrant workers.

Finishing off bin Laden will not bring electoral gains for Obama

President Obama came with a big economic plan amounting to more than $400 billion. But Republicans have voted it out. President Obama should come out with a bigger plan which cannot be voted out by the Republicans. That will boost his chances in the Presidential race. President Obama cannot rest on his laurels of finishing off Osama bin Laden, the dreaded Al Qaeda terrorist in Pakistan or hanging Saddam Hussein or finishing off the brutal dictator Colonel Qaddafi in Libya. These matters will not linger in the minds of the people. Only the domestic economic situation will turn crucial in the election campaign. At the moment, President Obama has an edge over the Republican Party. But as the campaign moves on, momentum will be generated after the Republican Party announces its official candidate to oppose President Obama. From then onwards, President Obama will have to work hard to convince the voters about his credibility to enter the White House again. Anything can change from now to the final D-day.

But an attack on Iran will fetch electoral gains for President Obama

As a footnote, I like to add that in the event of a military attack on Iran by USA and its allies or by Israel as a proxy to USA, American public opinion will overwhelmingly favour President Obama if the attack inflicts serious damage on Iran and its nuclear installation. Americans are very much angry over the Iranians for their hostile attitude and capturing of the American Embassy staff in Teheran in 1979 and holding those hostages for quite long. An attack on Iran will be viewed as paying back Iran in its own coin.

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Comments 11 comments

Becky Katz profile image

Becky Katz 5 years ago from Hereford, AZ

I see Obama as the biggest threat to the freedom of the US in the world. This will be a socialist country if he is re-elected. I am totally against Socialism. I am not thrilled with the GOP candidates but I fear Obama.

lovemychris profile image

lovemychris 5 years ago from Cape Cod, USA

Can you explain why Wall Street has had its biggest earnings in years under Obama? Wouldn't a socialist have seized that money?

Unless you think very wealthy people paying 39% tax is socialism, I don't get where you are coming from.

Or should the taxation ALL fall on the poor and middle class, as under Bushco?

Let's see...if all the gain goes to the top 10% of Americans, and the rest fall...what is that called?

Because that's where the GOP took us, and they want to go back.

TeaPartyCrasher profile image

TeaPartyCrasher 5 years ago from Camp Hill, PA


Becky likley relies on the media voices of the "%1"; Beck, Limbaugh, FOX, etc.

Becky Katz profile image

Becky Katz 5 years ago from Hereford, AZ

No, I rely on my feelings. I truly believe that he is doing wrong things. As would any person who thinks.

lovemychris profile image

lovemychris 5 years ago from Cape Cod, USA

"As would any person who thinks"

Got it. If we don't agree with you,we're stupid.

And I rely on history....if you keep doing the same thing over again, and expect different results, that's insane.

Trickle down was a front for give it all to the rich.

And it brought America to the ground.

It's plain as day....and we are living proof of it.

Obama and the Dems are trying to reverse it.

Socialism my patooty!

It's called Pay Up for all that stolen cash.

Becky Katz profile image

Becky Katz 5 years ago from Hereford, AZ

I did not say you were stupid, I said that you were not aware of the information that I am, which I made my decisions on.

Paladin_ profile image

Paladin_ 5 years ago from Michigan, USA

While I have no comments on the substance of your hub, I must point out that you should have included a third and fourth option on your poll:

() Independent or third party

() not voting

Adding these options would have given you a much more comprehensive picture of the 2012 electorate. I will definitely be choosing one of them.

TeaPartyCrasher profile image

TeaPartyCrasher 5 years ago from Camp Hill, PA


Look at some of my hubs and you'll see that I don't disagree with you.

But I think that Perry, Cain, etc would do much worse.

Cinpit8812 profile image

Cinpit8812 5 years ago from Los Angeles

Interesting hub. You do make some good points about how Obama has and will continue to encounter problems getting re-elected (middle-class anger) due to the state of the economy. Obama will be re-elected in spite of the state of the economy. The cast of rodeo clowns, with the exception of Romney (Mr. flip-flop and true originator of Obamacare--Romneycare in Massachusetts) currently in the running for the GOP nomination guarantees that Obama will be re-elected. Don't listen to people like Mrs. Katz. She is part of the willfully ignorant masses who know very little to nothing about political science and history, yet, feel their embarassingly misinformed opinions should be taken seriously. In fact, I bet Mrs. Katz could not tell you off the top of her head the difference between socialism and communism. She would say, of course, she does not need to know. She has some special "info" you or I are not privy to. Mrs. Katz and her ilk reflxibly fall in line like sheep and adopt the opinions of the demagogues of right-wing hate speech on Fox News and similar media outlets.

Elwyn Richards 4 years ago

The odds layers rarely get it wrong and they say that Obama will retain the presidency in November.

ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear Elwyn Richards,

Thank you for your comments. I agree with you fully.

Best wishes.

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