USA Presidential Election - Obama or who will Win the Race?
In the next year's election, I will be definitely voting forSee results without voting
US Presidential election
Negative factors against the Republicans
President Obama is hoping that the negative factors against the Republican Party will contribute to his winning the US Presidential race for the second term. The GOP is seen as opposing the economic reforms, opposing taxing the rich and opposing huge government spending to create jobs. Recently two women employees complained of sexual harassment by the Republican Party Presidential hopeful Herman Cain when he was the head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s. Of course Cain has denied the allegations as baseless. Cain was the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza. He has taken a lead in many public opinion polls as a possible Republican candidate to oppose President Obama. But he has a drawback of not holding any public office. If he is made as the official Republican nominee, then the democrats will turn the table against their arch rival by questioning his credentials to head USA. “Can a pizza seller with that experience sit in the White House and manage the affairs of the World’s only superpower?” will be the campaign theme of the Democrats. Personally, I don’t think Cain has even an iota of chance of making it to the candidates’ list even without these allegations of sexual harassment.
16% of US population are poor
Under the new census, it is revealed that 49 million Americans have become poor. This is 16% of the total population of USA. Already 14 million Americans are out of the jobs. This statistics will go against President Obama. Moreover President Obama cannot blame the Republicans for everything even though the Republicans are bitterly opposing his plans. The people’s anger is likely to turn against President Obama as the election campaign heats up. President Obama’s campaign managers are depending on the latest sexual scandal against Cain to drive their campaign. But if the Republican Party does not give Cain the green signal to contest, then the sexual harassment allegations will fizzle out.
Steve Jobs had predicted in his autobiography a one time Presidency for Obama if he did not adopt more business friendly policies. President Obama is not seen to be business friendly and so powerful business magnets will be pouring all their resources to oust President Obama from office. Business community in USA generally favours the Republicans.
Perry and Romney stoop to personal attacks
But there is good news for President Obama. Texas Governor Rick Perry and the former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney indulged in an ugly brawl when they debated in Las Vegas recently. Obama-bashing gave way to confrontation over illegal immigration in USA. Perry accused Romney of hiring illegal aliens to work in his yard. Perry also accused Romney of hypocrisy. I feel Perry has more chances of making it to the final selection than Romney, but Republican Party may be better off if Romney makes it to the grade. In the meanwhile, all speculation has been scotched off when Sarah Palin, the former Governor of Alaska ruled out her entering into the Presidential contest in 2012. She opted out because of family reasons. Sarah Palin is considered as the outspoken voice of the American right.
Quran burning pastor enters the fray
But there is an unlikely candidate who has announced his intention to contest for the Presidency. He is America’s Quran burning pastor Terry Jones. He will be contesting as an independent and has no chance to make it. When Terry Jones burned a copy of the Holy Quran, unrest erupted in Kandahar and over 100 people were killed there. President Obama has already begun his campaign with a statement that a Republican win in 2012 Presidential race will cripple USA. President Obama also campaigned to sell his jobs plan throughout America. He is in a fund raising campaign.
Middle class anger
Middle class clout will play an important role in next year’s elections. President Obama’s proposal to tax the rich has found favour with the middle class in US. It may be easy to assume that an overwhelming majority of the middle class is likely to back President Obama in his re-election campaign. But it is not that simple. Middle class families have seen their income eroding during the last 3 years when President Obama was at the helm of affairs. To what extent their anger will turn against President Obama cannot be predicted. President Obama can assume that he with either get the support of majority of the middle class or at the worst, the middle class will be divided in their opinion. A New York Times/CBS News poll indicated that the support base of President Obama is fast eroding.
For India, a defeat of President Obama will be good
If Republican Party comes to power, it will be good for India. Republican Presidential hopeful Romney has already called for raise in the visa cap for skilled workers overseas. This move, if implemented, will favour Indian IT sector. Romney is also in favour of legal immigration. Romney argues that lawful immigrants constitute about 8% of the US population and they form 16% of the top-performing high tech firms. In 25% of the hi-tech firms, the immigrants hold the post of top executives. Over a quarter of all patents filed from USA are by immigrant workers.
Finishing off bin Laden will not bring electoral gains for Obama
President Obama came with a big economic plan amounting to more than $400 billion. But Republicans have voted it out. President Obama should come out with a bigger plan which cannot be voted out by the Republicans. That will boost his chances in the Presidential race. President Obama cannot rest on his laurels of finishing off Osama bin Laden, the dreaded Al Qaeda terrorist in Pakistan or hanging Saddam Hussein or finishing off the brutal dictator Colonel Qaddafi in Libya. These matters will not linger in the minds of the people. Only the domestic economic situation will turn crucial in the election campaign. At the moment, President Obama has an edge over the Republican Party. But as the campaign moves on, momentum will be generated after the Republican Party announces its official candidate to oppose President Obama. From then onwards, President Obama will have to work hard to convince the voters about his credibility to enter the White House again. Anything can change from now to the final D-day.
But an attack on Iran will fetch electoral gains for President Obama
As a footnote, I like to add that in the event of a military attack on Iran by USA and its allies or by Israel as a proxy to USA, American public opinion will overwhelmingly favour President Obama if the attack inflicts serious damage on Iran and its nuclear installation. Americans are very much angry over the Iranians for their hostile attitude and capturing of the American Embassy staff in Teheran in 1979 and holding those hostages for quite long. An attack on Iran will be viewed as paying back Iran in its own coin.
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