US troops withdraw from Afghanistan and India-Pakistan dilemma

Afganistan map courtsey: maps of world
Afganistan map courtsey: maps of world | Source

Under immense pressure from its own public the only face saving policiy that Obama could or want to implement is the withdrawal of American troops from Afganistan by 2014 as declared earlier. His comprehensive recent defeat to republican has made his position weaker than ever. Even after 10 years of its operation in Afganistan and northern area of Pakistan, American masters are still clueless about the location of Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar. Their record against controlling Taliban is also far less than impressive. President Karzai is currently nothing more than mayor of Kabul. People of Afganistan feel less secure now as compared to a year ago. Taliban are now more confident and united than ever before. Road side bomb blasts and sucide attacks have increased in outskirts and inside Kabul significantly. In a nutshell, situation is getting worse than ever in Afganistan.


Obama
Obama

Trouble in leaving Afghanistan without defeating Taliban and strengthening Afgan government to stand on its feet is that America will loose its support for its war against terrorism. Bear in mind that US didn't seek UN security council approval for its invasion on Iraq where it didn't find any WMD and its image has already tarnished. US cannot afford to loose another battle to terrorism when its has already started loosing support from its NATO allies. Germany, Canada, UK and other NATO allies have already declared to either completely remove or reduce their troops from Afghanistan. And if Obama is not able to create a suitable environment to withdraw troops by 2014 then there is no doubt about his removal from white house in 2013 US election.

There is more more development happening in neighbourhood which is also a pain in a** for Obama. Iran is fast and secretly developing its Nuclear bomb which has gathered speed in last year. According to reports, Iran may develop a working nuclear bomb within a year. Many specialist think that it may have already developed one and have now speed up its enrichment process to accumulate as much as enriched uranium before the world comes to know about it. If this is true, US and Israel will have to attack Iran as they cannot afford to have another Islamic nuclear bomb. Although Pakistan also have nuclear bomb but it is not hostile against either US or Israel.

If US need to attack Iran , then it cannot do that just with NATO support as Iran is no Afgan or Iraq. It will need not only UN security council support but also UN general body support. Iran is a semi developed nation and many times stronger that Iraq and Afghanistan. US know this fact and gathering support against Iran will be a much tougher task. This is the reason why US do not want to leave Afghanistan without a working settlement as doing so will weaken its case against Iran.

Double Dip Recession 2012


Hamid Karzai
Hamid Karzai

As it is getting more clear that a clear win over Taliban is highly impossible, US focus have now shifted from winning the war to getting a political settlement. With approval from US, president Hamid Karzai have already started secret meeting with top Taliban leaders. It is now becoming more clear now that Afgan Taliban are now fast becoming part of the solution from the problem in less than a year. It looks like Haqqani group will also be a part of this peace talk. Karzai is ready to accept report about these peace talks but is not ready to reveal identity of the people or group he is talking with which is understandable looking at the critically of these talk. However more than anything else the fate of these talks or should we say trump card of this game are held by Pakistan and India.

File photo of Pak ISI chief - Ahmad Shuja Pasha
File photo of Pak ISI chief - Ahmad Shuja Pasha

Among all these peace exercise every one knows that gate of Afghan peace settlement open and close at Islamabad. Pakistan consider Afghanistan as own natural territory and will not allow any peace process in Afghanistan without it being a party and it wishes fulfilled. It will not allow a government in Kabul which is friendly to India. This goes to the era when Russia invaded Afghanistan and put its puppet government there. India was one of the first countries to recognize Northern Alliance government and had a very good relationship with Kabul. Pakistan left cornered at that time and did the same to India when Taliban took control of Kabul. This time Pakistan was only one of the three countries to recognize Taliban government and India was uprooted from Afghanistan. Now when Northern Alliance is again in the power, India have almost retained back what it lost in 1995.


Security outside bombed Indian consulate in Kabul
Security outside bombed Indian consulate in Kabul

This time India not only looked for Political support in Afghan government but also economical and public support. Indian is the largest donor to Afghanistan after USA. India have almost spent more than $1.8 billion in Afghanistan on infrastructure development and health. It had build several roads including highway which connect Kabul to Iran, many hospital and dispensaries, providing free medical facilities and medicines and it is also building Afghanistan's new parliament.

Afghan public feel more comfortable in associating itself with India than with Pakistan as they see Pakistan a supporter of Taliban. President Karzai has been accusing Pakistan ISI of spreading violence in Afghan through Taliban and other organizations like Haqqani group. Pakistan intelligence agency ISI was also accused of bombing Indian embassy in Kabul and other construction sites where Indian companies were involved. They are also accused for playing a double game with US and Afghanistan by calling themselves allies in war against terrorism and also supporting and protecting Afghan Taliban.


Double Dip Recession 2012



Indra Gandhi Medical Center in Kabul
Indra Gandhi Medical Center in Kabul
Karzai on his visit to India
Karzai on his visit to India

Pakistan on the other hand accuses India and Afghanistan of helping Pakistan Taliban, Pushtun nationalist movement and Baluchistan Liberation Army. The fact is that Pakistan government have little or no support from its public and tribal leaders in raiding its own people in NW frontier. Pakistan may have lost more than gaining anytihing in helping US in this war. It almost lost control of one third of its land in FATA, SWAT and other tribal areas when Pakistan Taliban and other groups captured all of the areas and were close to take over Peshawar. However Pak army retaliated back and captured most of the areas back but it is still becoming harder and harder everyday to keep these area secure. This have also started a series of bomb blast and suicide attacks in all the Pakistani cities.

Encouraged by these events, Baluchistan liberation movement also started its freedom movement which was almost dead for two decade. It has been reported that BLA have been secretly supported by India and also US to keep Pakistan in check in Afghan and war against terrorism.

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As it is becoming more clear that peace talk with Taliban leaders is the only solution for Afghanistan, Pakistan have been trying it best to place its people in Taliban in the discussion table. India on the other hand do not want Kabul to be soft on Taliban and want less Taliban involvement in final settlement. As the 2014 deadline is coming near both sides have intensified their efforts in maximising their stake. India is also worried as US and Pakistan have now also included China into the play. China has been long time threat to India's influence in the region and China also support Pakistan against India. Pakistan played a gamble by stopping NATO supply line for three days opposing America's drone attack in Pakistan's territory which paid off as US has to make an apology which have boosted Pakistan's confidence.

How ever till now India and Pakistan are the biggest player in this game along side US. But it has been shifting slightly in Pakistan's favour as US is getting more and more desparate to leave Afghanistan. On the other hand Obama know that only way to stabilize this whole region is to break a peace deal betwen India and Pakistan first before thinking about Afghanistan peace deal. This is the reason why Obama on his recent visit to India gave the hint that US is ready to play any role in Indo-Pak peace deal. However he didnot utter the K word as he cannot afford to offend his host.


The conclusion.........

As the deadline for troop withdrawal is coming near, options for Obama is getting narrower. There is growing dissatisfaction both in Kabul and back at home. He is already standing on the weak ground and if he has to keep his chances for second term in white house he has to do something and he has to do that very soon. But what ever he does, he has to keep wishes of India and Pakistan in mind. Till that time both these regional forces will keep fighting their proxy war on Afghan soil and it might get intensified if the deal fail to please any one of them.

If you have your own thought on this topic, please use the comment box below. If you want to contact me, my email id is navneetjha@gmail.com.


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Comments 14 comments

barry 5 years ago

it's impossible to coexist peacefully with islamofascism.

the only way to defeat it is to kill all adult male paki and afgahnis and deprogram that cult out of the children.

the only sane option is for nato to pull out of the region and give the green light to india to nuke pakistan the next time there is a terrorist attack like mumbai.cut the muslim countries off all western trade and money. strengthen military mutual cooperation with nonmuslim countries like russia, israel and ethiopia, whether we like them or not.

for every muslim terrorist attack we destroy whatever village that attacker came from or kill his family.


mani_shah55 5 years ago

I can not understand that why people all round the world think that it is possible to kill all muslims of Pakistan or all muslims of Pakistan share the responsibility of what Taliban are doing. Majority of Pakistanis do not like Taliban. Taliban are a group of few thousand misguided killers. Taliban are not the representatives of Pakistan because majority hate them that is why they are killing people through bomb blasts.


shing 5 years ago

just think what will happen when america will go back,agfan will be friends india or ??????????????????????????????


Vaibhav 5 years ago

India must bolster its Aid to Afghanistan.

Help Afghanistan's Army to secure Indian as well as Their own Interests.

Indian Armed Forces must be deployed in Kabul along with its Air force.

US should continue its Drone Attacks in Waziristan area where Haqqani Group exists.

India must help Afghanistan fence its Neighboring boundaries with Pakistan from where refugees come.

after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia must play a vital role in Development and assisting Afghanistan in building its Armed Forces to counter any challenges from Taliban.

India must aid afghan in agriculture, minerals so that its economy upbrings the life of its own people and which would eventually help Strengthening Afghanistan over all crises.

Indian assistance in putting up Industries in Afghanistan would help Afghan people getting their own bread & Butter and when prosperity would prevail, Taliban would be a History.

I wish all Afghan people luck who have suffered more than any other in this world just for peace and prosperity in the region.


Masood 5 years ago

well india never be a part of game in Agfanistan.. they no importance,,if have only due Pakistan dislikness..

indian don't know really situation and real news independent news petrol stores.. people getting information as thier pre-defined mind set as media war by countries played..

Realty is that all this terrism and islamist is pre-played games by big boss in the world.. they easliy get people and coutries support by money game and hidden deals..

Pakistan is gold bird for major big player in the world.. that is the story ..which most of people don'te know..why USSR spend millions and after 10 year handsup and crashed spo badly that never be called again USSR -become Russia..battle field field was Agfanistan but main thing Pakistani support. back end all planing by Gen.Zia.

after zia just hardly 10 years passed US get chance to invade the region..

Today world matter of interset.try to know real hidden story behind that region..why that region is so important that world biggest power alwasys thier..

they working last 15 years make pakistan region battle field..why ????

answer is important future engery -fuel routes and china infunce to eceomony by getting pakistan trade transit routes

See in world map Pakistan geo-position...indian occean and arabian sea,.. bordering middle east and energy rish central asia ,,russian new states ,iran, china .. but i am sad always whenever i saw indian media or guys writing in wave of western inteset as they happy to listen bad news about pakistan but they forget they are making fooling themself.. If india want to big power in future they have to making trade relation and trade transit route like china with Pakistan.other wise india have no option. peace in the region major need for Iran Pakistan china and India too..

All this terrism or so called terrism is due to Isreal middle east issue and Khasmir basic reason in the region.

I am Pakistani and proud to be.. love my land now i am setting in home near islamabad.

what ever i am writing it's i believe that independed views..

For indians i suggest you to see RT-news you will know better about Pakistan and whole this bloody world 3rd war in the region..but hate media war like us-media like cnn and also indian news tv channel .. thier no free media so for..for inside Pakistan thier free media and one world leading news channel industry..because it happen daily i must may be pakistan media is not so mature like western but finest thing is that it independed media..

thanks bye you can also visit my blog in www.worldvod.blogspot.com..


Amir rajput 4 years ago

Welldone mr.Masood u write many true value able points.The media of pakistan is free especially electronic media.Only one thing i want to say that if pakistan is stable then the world is stable.Pakistan is one of the greatest nation in the world.I m proud to be a pakistani.Pakistan zindabad.


navneetjha profile image

navneetjha 4 years ago from London, United Kingdom Author

Masood and Amir, I appreciate your comments. This part of world need peace at this point of time and I am sure Pakistan has to play a big part in bringing peace to this region. I am an India and like most of the other people in India, we wish to see a stable Pakistan and Afghanistan.


Amir rajput 4 years ago

When kashmir dispute is solved I m pretty sure that pakistan and india r become friends and this region of asia is then most peaceful,economically stable.But it is only possible when kashmir dispute is solved.


pramodgokhale profile image

pramodgokhale 4 years ago from Pune( India)

Najam Sethi writes Pakistan is a failed state, so no need to say further.

Pakistan is home of terrorism.let it flourish there and destroy basic structure and own people.


Amir rajput 4 years ago

Answer for only mr.Pramad.Mr.Pramod is a liar.It is very easy to talk on other countries.For example i say the same words about india and also say that india is mother of terrorism and it will soon destroy becoz it encourage the terrorism.Now Mr.Pramad u r glad?????


pramod gokhale 4 years ago

Mr. Amir,

i understand your feelings.but we are the victim of divide and rule policy of British Imperialist.My friends in Gulf were praising Indian democracy and secularism. I was surprised. they say Indian government is functioning well

Sorry, it was never my intention to hurt anyone's national pride.


pari khattak 4 years ago

excuse me mr pramod (india)......those who said tht Pakistan is failed and home of terrorsm.....4 them a big shame.....cz pakistan gv his all to da world and southasia's peace and stablity.....no body hv dare to talk lyk dat abt Pakistan sacrifices.....Pakistan zindabad....ameen


stirringtrouble profile image

stirringtrouble 3 years ago from London, United Kingdom

It great to read this. I see from what you have wrote America has pulled its forces out of the area. Also that NATO will continue to build strong relationships and help out in these areas. That is really positive and encouraging, well done.


sas 2 years ago

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