What Will Happen If UP Election Results In A Hung Assembly?

What Will Happen If Uttar Pradesh Election Results In A Hung Assembly?

Cho Ramaswamy, Editor of Thuglak weekly predicted the outcome of the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections and Karunanidhi's defeat last year.
Cho Ramaswamy, Editor of Thuglak weekly predicted the outcome of the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections and Karunanidhi's defeat last year. | Source

What Will Happen If Uttar Pradesh Election Results In A Hung Assembly?


Samajwadi Party Will Emerge As the Largest Single Party in the Assembly

According to an opinion poll, the results of the Uttar Pradesh state election may throw up a hung assembly. A hung assembly is defined as an assembly where no political party scores a majority. There are 402 seats in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly. The TV channel poll indicates that the Samajwadi Party (SP) of Mulayam Singh Yadav will have around 140 seats – the largest among the four political parties. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will get around 100 seats, the Congress Party will bag around 80 seats and the BJP will come fourth with a tally of around 60 seats. The remaining 22 seats will go to the small parties or independents.

Only Cho Ramasamy Predicted the Results Correctly

One cannot say whether the prediction will come correct. Sometimes predictions have come true in elections. But sometimes they have gone utterly wrong also. One example for wrong prediction was the Tamil Nadu Assembly election held last year. Almost everybody in the media (printed journals, newspapers and TV channels) except a Tamil weekly Thuglak predicted that the DMK led by the Chief Minister M Karunanidhi would sweep the polls and that the AIADMK headed by Jayalalithaa would be defeated. But all these predictions went wrong. Thuglak’s editor Cho Ramasamy correctly predicted the results with remarkable accuracy.

Mayawati’s Defeat Is Sure

But whether the present prediction of a hung assembly will come true or not, one thing seems to be very clear. Mayawati will be defeated likely in the elections. She made a costly mistake of spending thousands of crores from the State exchequer to erect her own statues in almost all the places in her state. She did it with the belief that the Dalits, who are behind her victory, will not only mind it, but will actually welcome it. Yes, she is right. The Dalits will not question any act of Mayawati as they consider her as their only leader. But Mayawati did not win in 2007 only because of the Dalit votes. Brahmins also contributed sizeably for her win. This time she will be losing the crucial Brahmin votes which will cost her the throne.

Magic Figure Of 180

But for an argument’s sake, let us assume that the prediction of a hung assembly comes true. Let us also assume that the prediction regarding each party’s seats secured in the elections also comes true. Then what will happen? To gain a majority, 202 seats are required for a party. If we assume that the party that is going to form the government in Lucknow has the resources to muster the support of the 22 independents, this means the party will require 202 minus 22 seats. That is, it will need 180 seats to form the government, excluding independents.

What Will Happen If Uttar Pradesh Election Results In A Hung Assembly?

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Mulayam's chances

Mulayam's  chances of becoming Chief Minister of Uttar  Pradesh are very bright
Mulayam's chances of becoming Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh are very bright | Source

Mulayam's Chances


Mulayam Depends on Congress Party’s Support

Let us first examine the prospects of the largest party Samajwadi Party to form a government in Lucknow. Mulayam Singh will have 140 members of his own Samajwadi Party. He now needs only 40 more members’ support. He cannot seek the support of BJP as that will separate the Muslim vote bank from him. Seeking support from his arch enemy Mayawati is also ruled out. Therefore the only option open to Mulayam Singh is to seek the support of the Congress Party.

Congress Has To Support Mulayam to Save Secularism

That is very easy to obtain. Mulayam will have to play the communal card to make Sonia Gandhi support him. Mulayam will declare that secularism is at peril and in order to prevent the communal forces (read BJP) from raising their heads again, the only solution is for all the secularists to support his party unconditionally to form a government at Lucknow. Now the Congress Party will be put to pressure. The Congress has acknowledged many times in the past that Mulayam Singh Yadav was the champion of secularism. Having said that and complemented him, it cannot go back on its stance now. Moreover if Congress refuses to extend support to Samajwadi Party, Mulayam Singh Yadav will call the Congress leaders as ‘anti-secular’. Congress will try to avoid being labelled as anti-secular. Therefore the Congress has no other options but to support Mulayam. But before supporting, the Congress leadership will seek an assurance from Mulayam that he will not align with BJP at any cost. Mulayam will readily give this needed assurance to Congress and satisfy it. Therefore the prospects of Mulayam Singh Yadav occupying the gaddi at Lucknow with outside support from Congress look very rosy. Rahul is also in favour of fighting BJP and so will support Mulayam to keep BJP in check.

Mayawati's chances

Mayawati will find it difficult to retain her power in Uttar Pradesh
Mayawati will find it difficult to retain her power in Uttar Pradesh | Source

Mayawati's chances


Will BJP Offer Mayawati Support?

Let us now examine the prospects of the second biggest party namely Mayawati’s BSP. BSP will have 100 members in the Assembly, according to the prediction. She now needs another 80 members’ support excluding the independents. If for some reason the SP-Congress relationship fails to materialise, then the next chance is for Mayawati to form a government by seeking the support of the Congress. If after negotiations, the Congress agrees to support Mayawati, then she can continue as Chief Minister. But if the Congress fails to support her bid to retain power, then she will turn to BJP for support. But apart from BJP and independents, she will still need the support of another 20 members to form the government. She can break the Congress Party and secure the support of the needed 20 members. But will the BJP support Mayawati?

BJP Is Ready To Lick Mayawati’s Shoes Once Again

Mayawati will have to enter into an agreement with the BJP. She will say that she will be the Chief Minister for the first two and a half years and offer the Chief Minister post by rotation to the BJP for the next two and a half years. BJP will fall into the bait and support Mayawati. Mayawati, after completing her two and a half years period, will withdraw support to the BJP and call for mid term elections. Thus the BJP will be deceived. Here one may ask a question as to whether the BJP is foolish to fall into Mayawati’s trap again as it had been cheated by her in the past many times. My answer is that the BJP will be foolish enough to fall at the feet of Mayawati. If Mayawati asks BJP to lick her toes, the BJP will do it happily. Therefore the next best chance is for Mayawati to retain her power for a period of two and a half years with the help of BJP.

Congress and the BJP Will Have Watch the Play from the Gallery

Congress and the BJP have no prospects of forming a government in Lucknow either on their own strengths or with the help of other parties. These two parties will have to content to supporting either Mulayam or Mayawati from the gallery.

Comments 4 comments

Manoj 4 years ago

Your article stings congress.


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear Manoj,

I thank you for your valuable comments. I agree with your observation.

Best wishes to you,


sanmdn profile image

sanmdn 4 years ago from Bangalore, India

a chance of SP-INC govt is possible.


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear sanmdn,

I thank you for your valuable comments. I agree with your view that such a possibility existed. But now that the results are out and SP is going to form the government on its own, Congress has lost.

Best wishes to you,

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