Vietnam Political and Economic Outlook 2011 and Beyond

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Vietnam's Political Outlook Stable and Economic Outlook Upbeat

For 2011 and beyond, Vietnam's political outlook will remain stable and its economic outlook forecasts to be strong for the foreseeable future according to the Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) country intelligence data and report.

In the midst of the world economic recession, Vietnam appears ready to continue as a highlight in terms of GDP growth in comparison to other economies around the world. Even though, the Communist Party of Vietnam will hold its 11th national congress in January 2011 and some significant changes are expected to take place, Vietnam's political outlook is expected to remain rock solid. In terms of their burgeoning economy, Vietnam's economic outlook is upbeat in comparison to other regions in the world with analysts forecasting annual real GDP growth to be an averag 6.7% for 2010-2011 and to accelerate to an average 7.2% from 2012-2014.

Vietnam

Where is Vietnam Located?

Vietnam is located along the Asia-Pacific Rim in Southeast Asia. It is bordered by Cambodia on the southwest, Laos on the northwest, China on th north, and the South China Sea on the east.

Vietnam's Political Outlook for 2011 and Beyond

According to the EIU's country intelligence report, Vietnam's political outlook remains stable. The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) is expected to retain a firm grip on the affairs of the country.

In January 2011, Vietnam's ruling party CPV will hold its 11th congress with some jostling and shuffling forecasted to take place. According to the EIU, some top members of the Communist Party have shown signs of nervousness heading into the congress with some hardliners calling for strong arm tactics in dealing with dissent. This congress is expected to bring about changes in the CPV's internal makeup with a new generation of leaders set to take more prominent positions. One important note is that the party's general secretary, Nong Duc Manh and the party's president Nguyen Minh Triet are both expected to be replaced during the meeting. Country observers and analysts expect these changes to set the tone for the CPV's social and economic agenda for the upcoming five to ten years.

On the international scene, Vietnam continued to weather a disputes with China over territory rights in the South China Sea. The United States helped Vietnam in their dispute with China, but also showed disapproval of Vietnam's human rights record and violations. Vietnam has taken a neutral stance towards the two super powers in order to keep communication and economic trading lines open.

Vietnam's Economic Outlook for 2011

Vietnam's economic outlook for 2011 on through 2014 forecasts to be a highlight on the world economic stage. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) country intelligence data, this burgeoning Southeast Asian economic growth is set to grow at a 6.7% average annual rate in terms of real GDP and an average of 7.2% from 2012 to 2014.

Even though the Vietnam economic outlook looks good for the foreseeable future, the EIU reported that the government gives mixed signals regarding direction of fiscal and monetary policy. The main problem facing Vietnam's economic policy makers is how to contain inflationary pressures while at the same time trying to pull off ambitious economic growth targets.

Even so the EIU forecasts that Asia will be the strongest region in terms of economic growth in 2010-2011 and foreign investors remain positive about Vietnam's long-term prospects. This will cause growth in manufacturing investment to be robust in the next two years. Moreover, the construction will find support in 2010-2011 by state investment in infrastrucure development projects. And, according to EIU country data intelligence estimations "Growth in the services sector, which functioned as the main engine of economic expansion in 2009, will also accelerate, with retailing and financial services making major contributions to growth."

One major factor that could affect Vietnam's economic outlook is whether China's economy will continue to expand at high rates. Of special concern is China's immediate needs for imports. If China's economy slows and they import less then Vietnam's economy could be adversely impacted in that China is Vietnam's third largest trading partner.

Vietnam International Relations Outlook 2011

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Comments 19 comments

GNelson profile image

GNelson 6 years ago from Florida

Tell me again why we fought a Vietnam war?


ecoggins profile image

ecoggins 6 years ago from Corona, California Author

GNelson, that is a good question. Some think we did so to stop the drive of Communism; others might think it was to promote freedom of expression and other human rights; why do you think we fought the Vietnam war?


DAVID SMALL 6 years ago

WHY WE FOUGHT IN VIETNAM? SIMPLE, Hanoi had thrown million and million men into the battlefield to stop the South Vietnam, our ally, from doing exactly what Hanoi is doing now: enjoy a good life and western lifestyle.


ecoggins profile image

ecoggins 6 years ago from Corona, California Author

David, I appreciate your input. Thank you.


TT 6 years ago

...Tell me again why we fought a Vietnam war?... b/c of greed and stupidity.

American lost b/c they could not justify the reason for going to war.

Vietnamese won b/c thy were determined to kick the American out of their homeland to regain their independence.


sir slave profile image

sir slave 5 years ago from Trinity county CA.

It is nice to see countries we fought doing well.

we almost always leave them in such terrible shape, vietnam was no exception, except for the fact that we DIDN'T get to set up a puppet regime. I am always glad when it seems a communist country is managing their affairs efficiently, but I ALWAYS worry about human right abuses, no matter what the political philosophy ruling the nation is. human rights abuses are human rights abuses. the United States has a stained history in war and peace of massive worldwide terror and oppression, in pursuit of an empire.

vietnam wanted just to have vietnam.


ecoggins profile image

ecoggins 5 years ago from Corona, California Author

sir slave, thank you for sharing you heart. Vietnam seems to be heading in the right direction economically, perhaps only because it is beginning to adopt a free market economy and because of trade agreements with the USA. However, Vietnam's human rights record is not the greatest as evidenced by their continuous persecution of the Montagnard ethnic tribe. It seems the Montagnard's helped the US armies in the war, but 35 years after the war ended is a long time to exact revenge. Vietnam also continues to infringe on Cambodian soil, moving boundary stakes each year at will.


Peter. 5 years ago

Viet Nam. Are you reading just the cover ?

Read inside

Corruption 15-20%

Government run companies use 40% of the country input and product 25% country out put

Human trafficking, Drug, Mafia, Money schemes.

No human rights, well security state.

Father ly, Le Cong Dinh, Cu ha Vu

Land taken away from farmers.

environement problem

education

and the communist leaders.

If you are big company then good.

you want the opportunity, then you might give them the money because these will scam you all the money

Read inside, don't read the cover.

Go and ask can you stand up and talk on the table.


Vietnam Business News 5 years ago

Vietnam will look to spell out more stable economic growth in 2011...

Source: http://vietnambusiness.asia/tag/vietnam-economy-20...


Anh Nguyen 5 years ago

I am a Vietnamese and I was born in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam. My father is a middle class man in Hanoi and he is able to support me financially in my college years in America. The things that Peter said above was still the cover.

If you want to read the inside, please come to Hanoi or HCM or any place in Vietnam. We will be the 17th richest country by 2025. Im sure many people may have big surprise when they come to my country. What Peter says is still the propaganda from the boat people who left Vietnam in 1975 and they cannot go back to Vietnam today to enjoy the high living standards.

We always welcome you no matter who you are.


ecoggins profile image

ecoggins 5 years ago from Corona, California Author

Anh Nguyen, thank you for your comments. I appreciate hearing different perspectives and am glad you were able to enjoy relative freedom in Hanoi.

Interestingly, I have a program which allows me to forecast GDP in purchase power parity and GDP per capita in purcahse power parity. The program draws from a wide variety of economic experts and sources from around the world. I ran an analysis of Vietnam's GDP and GDP per capita in current dollars and year 2000 dollars projected for 2025. I found that in 2025 Vietnam is projected to rank 44th in GDP and 131st in GDP per capita in purchase parity price (PPP). The low GDP per capita in PPP is probably due to Vietnam's current generally high rate of inflation.

Even so, I have American friends in Cambodia who enjoy visiting Vietnam, both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh. And I believe that as Vietnam continues to open up its markets and plays a larger role in the global markets, it will open up even more and more of its citizens will prosper like your parents.

I guess some wonder if citizens in Vietnam truly have freedom of conscience (meaning are they free to follow Christianity or any other religion). While others wonder about the persecution of the Montagnard people group. I know the Montagnards helped the US army during the war, but when is the time to forgive and move on?


Dave 5 years ago

http://www.economist.com/blogs/asiaview/2011/02/vi...

Ecoggins - I would like to say what ever magical program you have, it is no good. Did you predict the bust of world economy in 2009 with it? I bet not. Nobody can see the future or even as far as 2025. Secondly, and I quote "These pages are no longer being updated," is printed on the Economist website for country information. I recommend you actually read a full and current article. I hope that the economy of Vietnam can grow and DIR will continue to be expanded in the near future but it does not look so good at the moment. Devaluating their currency multiple times since 2009 has 12% inflation a serious problem along with corruption. Why would a company invest there where they can't make profits, as opposed to Cambodia or Thailand next door? I'll gladly read anything you would like to share but that earlier link was straight off some Vietnamese government website (Vietnam Business News). They want a more rosy outlook for investors. I hope they get them too but if I can see through it then I'm sure businesses which are much more cynical than me can too.


ecoggins profile image

ecoggins 5 years ago from Corona, California Author

Dave, I appreciate your input. I generally agree with you that the future is far from certain. However, I think my analysis supports what you seem to imply which is a less than rosy picture of Vietnam's economic future. While I believe Vietnam's economy will continue to grow, the fruit of that economy will probably not trickle down to the average citizen any time soon. The earlier link from the Vietnam Business News was posted by a commentor like you as was the rosy outlook by commentor Anh Nguyen. Ms. Nguyen suggests Vietnam will be the 17th richest country by 2025. My source shows Vietnam will rank around 131st in GDP per capita. I think that supports your assertions. Still I do not believe my forecast is not by any means set in stone.

I lived in Cambodia for six years and I love the Cambodian people. I hope more businesses will invest in Cambodia, but Cambodia ranks lower than Vietnam in corruption. Although, Cambodians do enjoy more civil liberties.


Quan 5 years ago

If you want to understand about Vietnam, Please come to Vietnam and perceive. That is a good way!


thanh saigon 5 years ago

The country and people of Vietnam are inherently very gentle, peace-loving and hospitable.

History of Vietnam has over 4000 years, going through the years the basic scale of people suffer from war and death, poverty, crime has largely originated in the north. (China) 20th Century began the war happened, starting with people regain government insurgency from France. And then as a civil war between the two men Nam - The very beginning of the North that starts from the Communist Party and leader: Ho Chi Minh.

Maybe at the time because people desire freedom and independence as Ho Chi Minh had promised, gay people should be supported. Later when the country gained independence and unity, people recognize the Communist People's king lies and deceptive, but there is no way to actually speak, use one of communist rules are: very specialized processing product, anyone who says, y son or action to the Communist Party competition will receive death or jute cultivation, collection grip family suffered from government terrorism. Therefore, the new Communist regime keeps to this day, people rather basic institutional very busy man with a Communist government now, but there is no way to evaluate submit to the wet. You want to find out exactly the economic, political and Vietnamese people go to Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City, obtain information from people, not to believe what the government and the Communist Party said.


CT Khor 5 years ago

Vietnamese government uses the wrong strategy to have conflict with China. It will bring negative impact for Vietnam in long term growth. It should benchmark Singapore and Thailand, be friendly with China and respect their leaders, so can gain a lot of economic benefits.


tracy 5 years ago

Vietnam didn't not not respect China. but China is the one who didn't respect their neighbor. Killing Vietnamese people in Vietnamese lands is a respectful acts? Fighting to steal Vietnam's two islands is respect? and after stealing the lands, who the hell is gonna ensure that they wont take control all of Vietnam sooner later? Singapore and Thailand have nothing for China to crave for. Vietnam has a lot in all terrain and resources. We are not gonna let China do whatever they want like they did thousands year ago. Economic in general is going down for all countries. Even America, their citizens have been suffering a lot. China should stop their greed and take care for their damned huge Chinese people, instead of putting time and money trying stab somebody on the back.


brian 5 years ago

Tracy ,

I agree with you .I left vietnam in 84 been in the u.s it is my country now I do not have much connection with viet nam but I do the hate the chinese aggression with a passion I wish president Bush should have a hard stand when the pilot bump the surveiilance in international air space we should do more on economic and declare war on them that would wipe out our debt put santion and the whole nine yard. the chinese are greed dirty and pure evil.


Tran 4 years ago

Dear all, I really do not know why the topic about statistic, economic facts about a country becomes such an idiotic battle for different believe about one country. There is fact and it will always be, no matter if you love or hate the country, just do not say something base solely from your belief. Whoever had been in the war have different point of view about the country and will pass on to their children if they have not been back to Viet Nam or been back with grudge they buried deeply inside.

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