Is War With Iran Inevitable?
Is War With Iran Inevitable?
The title speaks by itself. Given the latest events in world affairs, the likelihood of an Israeli-Iranian conflict is higher than ever. There is speculation that by the end of the year or early 2013 there will be a triggering moment which will provoke the Israeli state backed by the U.S. military to launch a strike against Iran. If this were to ever occur, the consequences of the resulting war would be unprecedented in recent history and would lead both the U.S. and most European countries into an even deeper Economic Recession.
The current Iranian President Ahmadinejad has repeatedly provoked international outrage by continuing Iran's uranium enrichment program for the development of nuclear sites as well as nukes and most importantly by predicting Israel is doomed to disappear.
In a recent conference at the UN General Assembly he stated that the Muslim would uproot "satanic powers" and repeated his controversial belief that Israel will soon disappear from the face of the Earth:
"I must announce that the Zionist regime i.e. Israel, with a 60-year record of genocide, plunder invasion and betrayal is about to die and will soon be erased form the geographical scene. Today, the time for the fall of the satanic power of the United State has come and the countdown to the annihilation of the emperor of power and wealth has started."
Is an Israeli-Iranian conflict around the corner?
US President Obama and the Pentagon have repeatedly stated that the US will not engage in a direct war with Iran. After having spent over $3 trillion in the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns, the US Government cannot afford to carry out another attack in the Middle East without facing another recession at home. During the last couple of months, we have witnessed a series of developments which should give the reader an idea of why an Israeli attack on Iran seems to be inevitable and may be carried out in the very near future, possibly before the deadline of what Ben Bernanke describes as the Fiscal Cliff.
Netanyahu's Bomb Diagram at the UN Speech in September 2012
Israeli PM Netanyahu gave a clear signal to the UN delegates in September when he showed a cartoonish diagram of a bomb at the General Assembly. His aim was to illustrate at which point Iran's uranium enrichment program has to be stopped before it becomes to late, This is one of the latest signals given by Israel to point out the gravity and urgency of the situation.
Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz
In early 2012, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil trade route where almost 40% of the world's oil traded by sea passes through which amounts to 25% of the daily global oil trade. The US and the UK recently responded by increasing their military presence in the region. On top of it all, warships from over 25 countries including NATO member states participated in a joint naval exercise near the Strait of Hormuz in what is described as an unprecedented show of force.
Escalating tensions between Turkey and Syria
Iran is not the only country that is facing the pressure from NATO member states. Syria, Iran's only ally in the Middle East, which has been suffering a civilian unrest and a large number of casualties during the last year has angered Turkey after Damascus accused its neighboring country along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar of backing a deadly insurgency that claimed the lives of many Syrians.Turkey has beefed up its military defense on the Syrian border by deploying an additional 250 tanks and has stated that though it is not seeking war, it is indeed not far from one.
US & Israel to hold major military exercise on October 21st 2012
Due to concerns which are rising about a possible conflict between Israel and Iran by the end of the year, the U.S. joined forces with Israel to conduct a major joint air defense drill on October 21st 2012, the largest ever of its kind. The 3-week exercise, named Austere Challenge 12, simulated missile defense scenarios and ended with the interception of incoming Patriot missiles.
Israel holds 'huge earthquake drill' on October 21st 2012
Coincidentally, on the same day of the US-Israeli military drill, Israel planned a huge emergency drill amid speculation that Israeli PM Netanyahu will carry out a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. The drill tested the country's ability to face a hypothetical scenario whereby a powerful earthquake would leave a total of 7,000 dead, 70,000 wounded and 170,000 left homeless.
US Military Bases in the Middle East
The picture speaks by itself. The actual reason for such a massive presence of US and UK troops in the Middle East isn't because of the so-called Al-Qaeda terrorists. On the other hand, the true motive behind the daily attacks and bombings in the Islamic countries is the very presence of these troops. It doesn't take a genius to figure out why the armies are being positioned along the Iranian bordering nations in order to surround it completely for the upcoming war.
Pentagon to support Israel if attacked
Last year, a Pentagon official stated that though the US disapproved of any direct military intervention in Iran, it would protect Israel if the country were to come under attack from Iranian missile strikes. This statement gives ample assurance to the Israeli military if it were to lead an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities as it knows it would be protected by the US if Iran were to strike back.
Israeli President Shimon Peres said that Israel will not consider unilateral action to stop Iran from getting a nuclear bomb. In the past though officials have consistently said that they were prepared to act alone to ensure Iran does not cross a nuclear weapons threshold. Was Peres speaking for himself, or has President Obama given the Israelis an assurance that they won't have to act alone?
With Iran continuing its nuclear development program of enriching uranium and Israel eager to stage a strategic attack on the nuclear facilities before the end of the year, it is just a matter of time before the war will start.
Furthermore in my previous Hub, I discuss the financial effects on the US Dollar of waging a war with Iran and the upcoming Global Economic Crisis.
The likelihood of another major war in the Middle East is a very delicate subject driven by both religious ideals and geopolitical affairs. The effects of such a scenario would be devastating not only to the Arab nations involved but also to Western countries as their economy relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil and gas. Furthermore, wars of this scale often bring about unintended consequences such as a resurgence of the Arab spring which may turn itself on Israel. The war with Iran is inevitable and it will affect the the West as much as it will affect Middle East countries from a financial perspective.
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