Who Will Win in UP Election?

Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election?

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Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election?

Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election?
Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election? | Source
Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election?
Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election? | Source
Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election?
Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election? | Source
Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election?
Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election? | Source
Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election?
Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election? | Source

Who Will Win Uttar Pradesh Election?


Campaign hotting up

The campaign for the UP Assembly Election is hotting up. The elections are to take place next month. All the political leaders are camping in different parts of UP and canvassing for their respective party candidates. Uttar Pradesh is the largest State in India and has 403 constituencies. The UP Chief Minister Mayawati is determined to keep her saddle in tact and is frenetically working towards it.

UP was a Congress bastion once upon a time

UP was a Congress bastion during the period of Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi. The Congress Party was successful for many years because of a magic formula it followed in UP politics. The formula was Dalits + Muslims + Brahmins = Victory. But this formula was broken in the eighties because of several factors. First of all, Kanshi Ram floated the Bahujan Samaj Party and weaned away the Dalits from the Congress. Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party weaned away the Muslims from the Congress. BJP weaned away the Brahmins from the Congress. Having lost its base, the Congress was left in the lurch, fending for itself. Today, the Congress is not even the second or third largest party in UP. The Congress finds its base shattered and has to rebuild it from the scratch. It is a very difficult and arduous task. Rahul Gandhi is trying to resurrect the party from the ruins, but how far he will be successful in such a short time is debatable.

Mulayam Singh was the most successful in breaking the Congress stranglehold

Mulayam Singh Yadav was the most successful politician, capitalising on the fall of the big tree Congress Party in UP. Yadav won the trustworthiness of the vast majority of the Muslims who form a sizeable portion of the population of UP. Yadav also won a sizeable portion of the backward class votes including his own Yadav community votes. With this, he was the king of his kingdom until Mayawati changed the equation by winning the trust of the Brahmins in 2007 elections.

Brahmin votes crucial

Mayawati had already the confidence of her own community Dalits. Highest percentage of population of the Dalits is found in UP among all the states in India. This favoured Mayawati, but with Dalit support alone, she could not win any election on her own. Of course, with the support of the BJP, she was able to capture power many times and became Chief Minister. To win the election on her own, she needed the support of at least another big group. Muslims supporting Mayawati is ruled out because of her past friendship with BJP. Backward classes mainly stand by Mulayam Singh Yadav and not with Mayawati. Therefore, Mayawati made efforts to pull the Brahmins towards her side. She conducted Brahmin conferences and eulogised the Brahmin community and its virtues. She promised minister posts for the Brahmins. This worked in her favour. In UP, the percentage of Brahmins to the total population is high at 15% compared to any other states. Having won the Brahmin community in her favour, it was a cake walk for Mayawati in the 2007 elections. She triumphed and occupied the citadel.

Same formula will not work this time for Mayawati

Strictly speaking, the same formula should work for Mayawati this time also and she should be able to retain her power next month for another five years. But this is easier said than done. Mayawati has lost her image and name because of squandering of the public money to build statues all over UP. The amount involved is huge in thousands of crores of rupees. This money could have been used to benefit the people of UP with many welfare schemes or to generate thousands of jobs by starting big factories. But she did not do it. This has angered the people of UP and this anger will be reflected in the elections. Mayawati is also associated with big corruption and her public image has been sullied. Of course, whatever Mayawati does will not affect her Dalit support. The Dalits will support Mayawati as they feel she is their leader and will not let her down for any reason whatsoever.

Brahmins may disown Mayawati

But Brahmins will not keep quiet this time. Unlike the Dalits, the Brahmins do not feel that Mayawati is their leader. In 2007, the Brahmins for a change voted for Mayawati as they were disillusioned by the policies of the Congress and the BJP whom they had been supporting in the past. But now the Brahmins have been definitely disillusioned and angered by the acts of Mayawati. The promise of a few minister posts to the Brahmins will not sway them towards Mayawati anymore. The Brahmins are bound to vote for either the Congress or the BJP. In other words, the Brahmin votes will be divided between the Congress and the BJP.

A serious handicap for Mayawati

Muslims who form 20% of the population of UP will more or less remain loyal to Mulayam Singh Yadav. Brahmins who form 15% of the population of UP will split their votes between the Congress and the BJP. Dalits who form 20% of the population of UP will stay with Mayawati. Therefore the outcome of the UP assembly election will depend on how the rest of the population forming around 45% of the population of the UP are going to vote. This 45% of the population belong to the backward class. The backward class people generally do not support Mayawati as they are at loggerheads with the Dalits. Even the Brahmins and the Dalits can co-exist, but backward class and Dalits find difficult to coexist. This is a serious handicap for Mayawati.

Rahul Gandhi will not succeed in his mission

Mulayam Singh is better placed to derive maximum benefit from the votes of the backward class people. The backward class supported BJP when Kalyan Singh was its leader. Kalyan Singh himself belongs to the backward class. But with the exit of Kalyan Singh, BJP has lost the votes of the backward class also. Congress never enjoyed the support of backward class even during the heydays of Nehru and Indira Gandhi. Therefore it cannot count on their support now notwithstanding Rahul Gandhi’s efforts. Moreover Rahul Gandhi is trying to wean the Dalits from the grip of Mayawati. He is visiting the Dalit slums and dining with them. He will not be successful in his mission as the Dalits are firmly entrenched in the Mayawati camp.

Rahul Gandhi should change his tactic for success

Rahul Gandhi should try to change his tactics. If victory for the Congress is his goal, Rahul should try to woo the Brahmins, Muslims and the backward classes. In other words, the new formula for the Congress should be Muslims + Brahmins + Backward Classes = Victory. But this formula has its own contradictions as the backward class and the Brahmins cannot be in the same camp unlike the Brahmins and the Dalits who can coexist. Right now, Mulayam Singh Yadav stands to gain because of the loss of Brahmin support to Mayawati. With 20% Muslims and another 20%-30% backward class votes, Mulayam Singh Yadav can comfortably sit in the saddle in Lucknow and will replace Mayawati who has only the 20% Dalit support. Thus number game favours Mulayam Singh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party right now.

Number game is fluctuating

But this number game is a fluctuating one. In politics, what was yesterday goes to pieces today and what is today will be no more tomorrow. Therefore, even before the ink dries, a new situation may emerge as election is still one month away. At one stage in the past I had written an article stating that Mayawati looked likely to retain her crown. But I have changed that opinion now with developing new scenario.

Comments 33 comments

Satyapal singh 4 years ago

sonia gandhi supports corruption, THE POOR leader of congress,its sure dat BJP WILL win .....ADWANI/SUSHMA SWARAJ...SHOULD BE OUR NEXT PRIME MINISTER....


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Thank you for your comments, Satyapal Singh. I quite agree with you that the BJP is likely to win the next general election in India either on its own or with the help of its allies. The Congress will taste a big defeat and sink. Advani is aged and may not become the PM. Sushma Swaraj has no proper temperament to be the PM. I would prefer Narendra Modi so that he can deliver goods and make India prosperous, notwithstanding the attack on him by the so called 'secular' politicians.


No 4 years ago

BJP winning the next elections will be a pipe dream. They are mostly people who create trouble..


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

It is not a dream, it is fast becoming a reality. On the other hand it is a dream for the Congress to come back to power. Of course, BJP may not be able to come to power alone, but with the help of its allies will be able to form government.

One can say that BJP is responsible for all the troubles. One can say that it is BJP which is responsible for the Commonwealth Games scam. One can say that it is the BJP is responsible for the 2G spectrum scam. One can say that BJP is responsible for the Adarsh Housing Society scam. One can even say that BJP is responsible for the recent cyclone that ravaged the coast of Tamil Nadu. One can say that BJP is responsible for the killing of the Shias by the Sunnis in Pakistan. One can say many things. In fact why use the word mostly? You can say that the BJP is responsible for everything that is happening in the world. One cannot object to such a view. But how many people will believe this? Very few.


Madurai profile image

Madurai 4 years ago from Online

Whoever wins, the public is the loser..


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear Madurai,

Thank you for your valuable comments. I fully agree with you that the election results in UP will not benefit the public.

Best wishes


brij 4 years ago

All political parties are looting our Nation. These days Congress is looting our Nation's wealth.


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear brij,

Thank you for your comments. I agree with you entirely.

Best Wishes to you.


MGALLE123@GMAIL.COM 4 years ago

Any Leader think for Poor Peoples . Please Try to bring the Bill in Parlament Not Register more then one HECTOR LAND for one COUPLE and which Couple who dont have one HECTOR LAND if you have good thinking power dont give your VOTE to any LEADER up to you get one HECTOR LAND


sam 4 years ago

dear rkm - who do you think will do well in UP this time. the bjp has a strategy of FC+BC. on paper it sounds good. but is it working? are brahmins, thakurs, lodhs, kushwahas etc going to unite and vote BJP? what do you see on ground.

my gut feel is that SP will sweep the elections. do you see that?


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear Sam,

Thank you for your comments. I do not see much prospects for the BJP in the UP elections though it has very good prospects at the national level in the next parliamentary elections.

Best wishes to you,


Durgesh pandey 4 years ago

2012 election bjp win (up)


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear Durgesh pandey,

Thank you for your comments. Though I believe that the BJP is the better of all the four parties contesting and want it to win, it seems that your wish and my wish may not be granted. Going by the latest trends, the UP elections may throw a hung assembly with SP emerging as the largest party.

Best wishes to you,


puppy 4 years ago

Akhilesh Yadav will be the next cm of UP


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear puppy,

I thank you for your valuable comments. I agree with you that there is a good chance of Akhilesh Yadav to become the Chief Minister of UP. But I have a personal feeling that if SP comes to power in UP, Mulayam Singh Yadav will become the Chief Minister. Let us see what happens.

Best wishes to you,


randheerkjha@gmail.com 4 years ago

BJP is winning this time


mayur 4 years ago

can bjp support mayawati to keep out congress from up..??


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear mayur,

I thank you for your valuable comments.In my opinion,BJP should not support Mayawati under any circumstance. Mayawati has cheated BJP in the past on several occasions. BJP has always lost its credibility because of its association with Mayawati. Let BJP sit in the opposition without bothering who is going to sit on the gaddi.

But the above is my opinion. In politics, different factors have to be weighed down. Only practical decisions are taken in politics and ideology is always sacrificed. Therefore if the BJP takes a decision to support Mayawati, I will not be surprised. I can say that the BJP should not support Mayawati. But I cannot say what they will do once the results are out.

Best wishes to you,


Mayur m. 4 years ago

how much hope does bjp has in these elections ????considering 2014....


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear Mayur m,

I thank you for your valuable comments. BJP has very high hopes of coming to power at the national level in 2014. Most probably the BJP will come to power in Delhi either single handed or with the help of its allies. This is my opinion based on the present day situation. But political situation can change between now and 2014 which is still two years away.

Best wishes to you,


raj 4 years ago

poll on television says congress will win 100 seats.........but actually in up there is no room for congress in last decade......will vote sharing of muslims between Sp and Cong. will make it easy for bjp and bsp?????

wats ur opinion about polls ......


Goutam 4 years ago

Hi Ram,

I want to know why news channels are predicting Mulayam Yadav's return even though his rule was a reign of terror in whole of UP?

And why is the BJP maintaining a low key campaign this time? Why they seem uninterested?


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear raj,

I thank you for your valuable comments. I agree with your observation that such a possibility exists. If Muslim votes are divided between SP and Congress, it may actually benefit BJP and BSP.

Best wishes to you,


Divakar Rao 4 years ago

BJP the rogue party wins only on the net. On the ground they will face utter defeat. Third rate ba....ds. See what they did to Karnataka, once a developed and prominent state in India.


pratyush 4 years ago

i think sp is also not in condition of full majority,,,,i think congress+s.p.,,,,,and for 2014 bjp n modi,,,


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Compared to the mega 2G scam involving $40 billion, Commonwealth Games scam and other scams of the Congress, the Karnataka scam of BJP's Yeddiyurappa is miniscule. Even Congress leaders admit grudgingly that Narendra Modi has developed Gujarat to a great extent. Compared to the other political parties, BJP is far far better though it is not an ideal or a perfect political party.


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear pratyush,

I thank you for your valuable comments. I agree with your observation fully.

Best wishes to you,


mayur 4 years ago

whos campaign is the best till now in up???

will projection of uma bharti help bjp to attract obc voters??????


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear mayur,

I thank you for your valuable comments. BJP's campaign has been the best so far. Projection of Uma Bharati will help to attract some backward class votes and women's votes but it is not sufficient to help BJP to come to power.

Best wishes to you,


salman 4 years ago

BJP would have the highest numbers of seat but it would be a hang assembly we may see election again in 1 year


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear salman,

I thank you for your valuable comments. I doubt whether BJP will have the highest number of seats. In my opinion, the SP may emerge as the largest party.

Best wishes to you,


mayur 4 years ago

after 7 phases sp and bjp seems to be biggest gainers.....


ramkimeena profile image

ramkimeena 4 years ago from India Author

Dear mayur,

I thank you for your valuable comments. I fully agree with your observations. SP and BJP are the biggest gainers while BSP and the Congress are the biggest losers. Now Mayawati cannot install more of her statues for the next five years. She will try to become the Chief Minister in 2017 and install thousands of her statues all over Uttar Pradesh.

Best wishes to you,

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