His chance is good. Nothing is working for the Obama campaign, not its up to now wide lead in getting and spending money, not its slash and burn politics, not its advantage of incumbency, not its vote buying, not its politicization of the executive branch. Even disallowing the usual liberal bias in preelection polling, his numbers are worse than they were three months ago. The undecided voters (yes, they are out there, though the Obama campaign tries to spin away that fact in order to keep up morale among the troops) almost always break two to one against the incumbent during the last week or two of a campaign, and they are mostly independents, who had turned away from Obama two years ago, so there likely is a large wave of Romney support to come ashore at the end of October. Were the election to be held today, Romney would probably win, and due to the sad American economy and his inability to run on either his record or new, hollow promises for the future, it is getting worse, not better, for Obama as the weeks slip away. Without a game changer, he will not win reelection.
A game changer, or an attempt to launch one, is what we should anticipate, too. This otherwise incompetent administration is good at only two things: politics and abuse of office. It will not take an impending loss lying down. Obama will do something dramatic in a final, desperate attempt to cling to power. Watch for it.