Many economic watchers have stated that by the year 2020-2030, China and India will become first rate economic superpowers, even surpassing the United States. In the earlier part of this century, China has superceded Japan to be the second largest economic superpower. Many pundits went further to state that by 2025, India will be the least corrupt developing nation. What is your opinion of this?
There is no doubt that if things continue the way they are that China will be number one in the world and the Asean countries (already the biggest free trade grouping in the world) will be the centre of the world.
India is in the lead in regard to social issues and dealing with corruption and could well be advanced by that time.
My only concern is the trade protectionism of the US that is sending its fleet to threaten the major Chinese shipping routes and interfere in the territorial waters disputes in the South China sea. As it has shown many times in the past, when the US has economic troubles it attacks somebody - which in this instance could be a recipe for disaster.
China already is an economic superpower. For me the definition of an economic superpower is:
1. take significant share of world GDP
2. take significant share of world trade
3. run trade surplusses, be on the lender side to actively influence economic situations
4. significant means any hickup in the superpower economy will create tsunamis in the world economy.
With this definition only China and the EU are economic superpowers. The US fails in #3 (only passed all 4 categories in the 40ties to early 70ties.)
India is not even close to being an economic superpower. Through sheer number of citizens India passes 1. and 2. but fails in 3. and 4. This will stay so for some period of time.
Individual nations like Japan and Germany come close to being economic superpowers. They only fail on #1., representing only 1% to 2 % of world population.
Add a 5th definition: military power and you have the definition of a real superpower. Look at developments during the past decades and find out that the US more and more has to go for the military option to maintain influence. The economic influence is fading.
both India and China have every potential to become super power,it is not enough by growing GDPs and few pockets of prosperity (Shanghai, Mumbai) are the show pieces ,inclusive growth is very important for every nation and community.
USA may be the super power of yesteryear but after WW II shouldered global responsibilities including food and financial aid and Europe which almost devastated in war was rebuilt with American help and protected against communist aggression.
If India and China willing to act and share global responsibilities then it is worth and ensure global peace and prosperity.
Currently there is no real super power (the US lost that, just as the UK did centuries before). China is the closest we have.
Since the 80's China and India were predicted to be economic superpowers. The previsions made at that time are coming true. However their situation is fragile given both economies are the world sweat shops.
China arguably is one right now. If you took the debt situation literally they could foreclose on the US.
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